NOAH HOLDINGS LTD(6686.HK):LARGE INCREASE IN 4Q23 EARNINGS WITH GENEROUS DIVIDEND PAYOUT
NOAH HOLDINGS LTD(6686.HK):LARGE INCREASE IN 4Q23 EARNINGS WITH GENEROUS DIVIDEND PAYOUT
Overseas AUM may expand decently in 2023. We expect its overseas AUM to increase 7.6% YoY in 4Q23 and account for about 23.3% of total AUM as of end December 2023, up from 20.8% as of end December 2022. Its AUM reached RMB154.6bn at end December 2023, against RMB157.1bn as of end December 2022.Although equity market volatility was quite high in 4Q23, we noted that Noah reported large increase in net profit 4Q23, mainly due to relatively low comparison base in 4Q22 and rapid expansion in overseas business. As a result, its adjusted net profit increased 56.7% YoY in 4Q23 and 1% YoY in 2023, against 8.7% YoY decrease in 9M23. Despite high volatility in domestic equity markets, Noah's AUM was relatively stable in 4Q23, mainly thanks to rapid expansion in overseas business, further reflecting its strong competitiveness in the wealth management industry. In our view, its overseas net revenue and AUM may continue to report decent growth in 2024.
儘管23年第四季度股市波動性相當高，但我們注意到，諾亞報告稱，23年第四季度淨利潤大幅增長，這主要是由於2022年第四季度的比較基礎相對較低以及海外業務的快速擴張。因此，其調整後的淨利潤在23年第四季度同比增長56.7％，在2023年同比增長1％，而在9M23年同比下降8.7％。儘管國內股票市場波動很大，但諾亞的資產管理規模在23年第四季度相對穩定，這主要是由於海外業務的快速擴張，這進一步反映了其在财富管理行業的強大競爭力。我們認爲，其海外淨收入和資產管理規模可能會在2024年繼續保持可觀的增長。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Overseas business increased rapidly in 2023. Its number of overseas active clients may increase 44.6% YoY in 4Q23 and 38% YoY in 2023. Its overseas net revenue may surge 73% YoY and account for about 43.5% of its total net revenue in 2023, up from 26.7% in 2022.
海外業務在 2023 年迅速增長。其海外活躍客戶數量可能在23年第四季度同比增長44.6％，在2023年同比增長38％。其海外淨收入可能同比增長73％，約佔2023年總淨收入的43.5％，高於2022年的26.7％。
Overseas AUM may expand decently in 2023. We expect its overseas AUM to increase 7.6% YoY in 4Q23 and account for about 23.3% of total AUM as of end December 2023, up from 20.8% as of end December 2022. Its AUM reached RMB154.6bn at end December 2023, against RMB157.1bn as of end December 2022.
海外資產管理規模可能會在2023年大幅擴大。我們預計，其海外資產管理規模將在23年第四季度同比增長7.6％，佔截至2023年12月底的總資產管理規模的約23.3％，高於2022年12月底的20.8％。截至2023年12月底，其資產管理規模達到1546億元人民幣，而截至2022年12月底爲1571億元人民幣。
Dividend payout ratio will increase. Noah announced a 50% dividend payout ratio and a 50% special dividend payout ratio, which will result in about 20% dividend yield for full year 2023 and should bode well for its shareholders' interests. In our view, Noah will maintain its competitiveness in China's wealth and asset management market in the next few years.
股息支付率將增加。諾亞宣佈了50％的股息支付率和50％的特別股息支付率，這將使2023年全年股息收益率達到約20％，對於其股東的利益來說應該是個好兆頭。我們認爲，諾亞將在未來幾年內保持其在中國財富和資產管理市場的競爭力。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Noah might be negatively affected by rising volatility in the equity markets; risk events in investments such as Camsing incident may negatively affect Noah's value and brand image.
諾亞可能會受到股票市場波動加劇的負面影響；投資中的風險事件，例如Camsing事件，可能會對諾亞的價值和品牌形象產生負面影響。
Valuation
估價
We noted Chinese equity markets sentiments has improved in recent months. Meanwhile, its overseas business may continue to report decent growth in the near future. Meanwhile, Noah announced generous dividend payout for full year 2023, thanks to its healthy balance sheet. Noah is now trading at 4.4x 2024E adjusted P/E, which is undervalued. We revised up our target price from US$22.5 to US$23.91, based on 10.1x 2024E adjusted P/E, at about 20% discount to its average forward P/E over the past ten years. Maintain BUY rating.
我們注意到，近幾個月來，中國股市情緒有所改善。同時，其海外業務在不久的將來可能會繼續實現可觀的增長。同時，諾亞宣佈2023年全年派發豐厚的股息，這要歸功於其健康的資產負債表。諾亞現在的交易價格爲2024年的4.4倍調整後的市盈率，該市盈率被低估了。根據2024年的10.1倍調整後的市盈率，我們將目標價格從22.5美元上調至23.91美元，比過去十年的平均遠期市盈率折扣約20％。維持買入評級。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
