LEAPMOTOR(09863.HK):STRONG SALES GROWTH IN 4Q2023 2023 GPM TURNED POSITIVE;GROWTH MOMENTUM EXPECTED TO CONTINUE; UPGRADE TO "BUY"
LEAPMOTOR(09863.HK):STRONG SALES GROWTH IN 4Q2023 2023 GPM TURNED POSITIVE;GROWTH MOMENTUM EXPECTED TO CONTINUE; UPGRADE TO "BUY"
Upgrade to "Buy", but lower TP to HK$36.00. Leapmotor's (the "Company") 4Q2023 results were in-line with our expectations. Taking into account the competitive environment of the domestic auto market in the next few years, and the expected challenges in sales in overseas markets in 2024, we lower our SVPS forecasts for 2024-2025F to RMB23.270 (-4.660) / RMB34.184 (-7.839), and add SVPS forecast for 2026F at RMB36.953. We give the Company a TP of HK$36.00, which corresponds to around 1.8x 2024 PS.
升級至 “買入”，但目標價下調至36.00港元。零跑汽車（“公司”）的 4Q2023 業績符合我們的預期。考慮到未來幾年國內汽車市場的競爭環境以及2024年海外市場銷售的預期挑戰，我們將2024-2025財年的SVPS預測下調至人民幣23.270元（-4.660）/人民幣34.184元（-7.839），並將2026財年的SVPS預測增加至36.953元人民幣。我們給公司的目標價爲36.00港元，相當於2024年每股收益的1.8倍左右。
Strong Sales Growth in 4Q2023, with 2023 GPM turned positive; sales volume continued to grow rapidly yoy/mom. Thanks to the continuous improvement of the Company's product mix and its ability to reduce costs and increase efficiency that is better than most of its peers, the Company's GPM turned positive in 2023. In 4Q2023, the Company recorded net loss attributable to shareholders of the Company of RMB2.0 bn. Leapmotor's top line in 2023 reached RMB16.75 bn, up 35.2% yoy. Net loss attributable to shareholders of the Company was RMB4.22 bn, down 17.5% yoy. The Company's annual vehicle sales volume reached 144,155 units, a yoy increase of 29.7%. The average revenue per unit increased by 4.2% yoy to RMB116,075. With the Company's strong C11 sales (up 81.9% yoy to 80,708 units in 2023) and the expected increase in C10 sales, we believe that Leapmotor's sales are expected to continue to grow rapidly in 2024.
4Q2023 的強勁銷售增長，2023 年的毛利率轉爲正數；銷量繼續快速增長。由於公司產品組合的持續改善及其比大多數同行更好的降低成本和提高效率的能力，該公司的GPM在2023年轉爲正數。在 4Q2023 中，公司錄得歸屬於公司股東的淨虧損爲人民幣20億元。零跑汽車在2023年的收入達到167.5億元人民幣，同比增長35.2％。歸屬於公司股東的淨虧損爲人民幣42.2億元，同比下降17.5％。該公司的年汽車銷量達到144,155輛，同比增長29.7％。單位平均收入同比增長4.2％，達到人民幣116,075元。憑藉公司強勁的C11銷量（2023年同比增長81.9％至80,708輛）以及C10銷量的預期增長，我們認爲零跑汽車的銷量預計將在2024年繼續快速增長。
The newly launched C10 has received a large number of orders, and three 2024 remodels will be launched soon; these cost-effective models are expected to drive continued strong sales growth. Benefiting from years of self-development on core technologies, combined with the self-developed LEAP 3.0 architecture, Leapmotor has realized that self-developed and self-manufactured parts account for more than 70% of total vehicle costs, thereby greatly reducing the cost of the vehicle, making it maintain a relatively high cost-effectiveness advantage in the price competition among its peers. We believe that the Company's C series models (price range within RMB200,000) will continue to witness strong sales in domestic market and further open up room for growth in 2024.
新推出的C10已收到大量訂單，不久將推出三款2024改款；這些具有成本效益的車型有望推動持續強勁的銷售增長。受益於多年的核心技術自主開發，加上自主開發的LEAP 3.0架構，零跑汽車已經意識到自主開發和自制零部件佔車輛總成本的70％以上，從而大大降低了車輛成本，使其在同行的價格競爭中保持了相對較高的成本效益優勢。我們認爲，該公司的C系列車型（價格區間在20萬元人民幣以內）將繼續在國內市場保持強勁的銷售，並在2024年進一步開闢增長空間。
Complementing the advantages of Stellantis, the Company will accelerate its overseas business expansion. Since compact cars are very suitable for the European market (urban roads are generally narrow), the sales of T03 model are expected to quickly increase relying on Stellantis' leading edge in the European market; meanwhile, the Company's C10 model, which is built strictly based on global standards, is expected to be the first to achieve breakthroughs in the European market. Coupled with the C11 2024 model, the Company's sales in overseas markets are expected to exceed market expectations in 2024.
除了Stellantis的優勢外，該公司還將加快其海外業務擴張。由於緊湊型汽車非常適合歐洲市場（城市道路普遍較窄），憑藉Stellantis在歐洲市場的領先優勢，預計T03車型的銷量將迅速增加；同時，該公司嚴格基於全球標準制造的C10車型有望率先在歐洲市場取得突破。加上C11 2024車型，預計2024年該公司在海外市場的銷售將超過市場預期。
Risks: 1) Industry competition may exceed expectations; 2) sales of new vehicle models and overseas sales may fall short of expectations.
風險：1）行業競爭可能超出預期；2）新車型的銷量和海外銷量可能低於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。