ZHAOJIN MINING(01818.HK):MINED GOLD OUTPUT TO GROW STEADILY MAINTAIN "BUY"
ZHAOJIN MINING(01818.HK):MINED GOLD OUTPUT TO GROW STEADILY MAINTAIN "BUY"
We maintain "Buy" rating and maintain the TP at HK$12.06. Our TP represents 33.6x, 26.0x and 22.2x 2024-2026 PER. We forecast net profit of Zhaojin Mining (the "Company") to grow largely in 2024-2026 and will be driven by higher gold price, more mining output and descending mined gold production costs.
我們維持 “買入” 評級，目標價維持在12.06港元。我們的目標股價代表2024-2026年的市盈率爲33.6倍、26.0倍和22.2倍。我們預測，招金礦業（“公司”）的淨利潤將在2024-2026年大幅增長，這將受到金價上漲、採礦產量增加和開採黃金生產成本下降的推動。
The 2023 annual results of the Company was generally in line with market consensus. Total shareholders' net profit increased 70.8% yoy to RMB686.4 million. Total revenue increased 6.8% yoy to RMB8.42 million. Total mined gold output of the Company increased 5.8% yoy to 0.437 million oz and total gold output decreased 9.75% yoy to 0.793 million oz. The decrease in total gold output was mainly attributable to less refined gold output. The average production costs of mined gold increased 1.47% yoy to US$969.88/oz, mainly due to higher labor costs and safety costs.
公司2023年年度業績總體上符合市場共識。股東總淨利潤同比增長70.8％，至人民幣6.864億元。總收入同比增長6.8％，達到人民幣842萬元。該公司的黃金開採總產量同比增長5.8％，至0.437億盎司，黃金總產量同比下降9.75％，至79.3萬盎司。黃金總產量的下降主要歸因於精煉金產量的減少。開採黃金的平均生產成本同比增長1.47％，至969.88美元/盎司，這主要是由於勞動力成本和安全成本的上漲。
We forecast gold price to rise in 2024 as the US Federal Reserve may cut interest rates. Gold assets are of high value during the period of US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. If we review the performance of the gold price during the cycle from interest rate hike to interest rate cut, we may find out that gold assets are of high value in the period when there are significant changes in the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. When the market was affirmed that the US Federal Reserve would start to cut interest rates, the gold price experienced another round of increases. It's widely expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2024 and the only debate is the timing and the number of cuts, but these two factors will not impact the gold price trend.
我們預測，由於聯儲局可能降息，黃金價格將在2024年上漲。在美國聯邦儲備銀行降息期間，黃金資產具有很高的價值。如果我們回顧一下金價在從加息到降息的週期中的表現，我們可能會發現，在聯儲局貨幣政策發生重大變化的時期，黃金資產具有很高的價值。當市場確認聯儲局將開始降息時，金價經歷了又一輪上漲。人們普遍預計，聯儲局將在2024年降息，唯一的爭論是降息的時機和次數，但這兩個因素不會影響金價走勢。
Haiyu Gold Mine will be the main profit driver of the Company from 2025. The Company plans to complete the construction of Haiyu Gold Mine in 2024 and to commence production from 2025. Total designed production capacity of Haiyu Gold Mine is about 16-20 tons and is expected to reach design capacity in about 3 years. The average ore grade of Haiyu Gold Mine is 4.2g/t, which is two time higher than the average ore grade of current gold mines. The estimated production costs of Haiyu Gold Mine is much lower than current level. Hence, the commissioning of Haiyu Gold Mine is expected to significantly improve the profitability of the Company. We forecast net profit of Zhaojin Mining to grow largely in 2024-2026 due to higher gold price, more mined gold output and descending mined gold production costs.
從2025年起，海宇金礦將成爲公司的主要利潤驅動力。該公司計劃在2024年完成海玉金礦的建設，並從2025年開始生產。海玉金礦的總設計產能約爲16-20噸，預計將在大約3年內達到設計產能。海玉金礦的平均礦石品位爲4.2g/t，是當前金礦平均礦石品位的兩倍。海玉金礦的估計生產成本遠低於目前的水平。因此，預計海玉金礦的投產將顯著提高公司的盈利能力。我們預測，由於金價上漲、黃金開採產量增加以及開採黃金生產成本下降，招金礦業的淨利潤將在2024-2026年大幅增長。
Catalysts: Gold price rise; the US Fed to cut interest rate early; financial market turbulence.
催化劑：金價上漲；聯儲局提前降息；金融市場動盪。
Risks: Decline in gold price; gold mine production impacted by external factors.
風險：金價下跌；金礦產量受外部因素影響。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。