WUXI BIOLOGICS(2269.HK):EXPAND OVERSEAS CAPACITY TO MITIGATE RISKS
WUXI BIOLOGICS(2269.HK):EXPAND OVERSEAS CAPACITY TO MITIGATE RISKS
WuXi Biologics (Wuxi Bio) reported 2023 revenue of RMB17.03bn, up 11.6% YoY, attributable net income of RMB3.40bn, down 23.1% YoY, and adjusted attributable net income of RMB4.70bn, down 4.6% YoY. Both revenue and adjusted attributable net income were in-line with our forecasts. If excluding COVID revenue, total revenue would increase by 37.7% YoY, and revenue from late-stage and CMO projects would surge by 101.7% YoY. Total backlog stood at US$20.59bn as of end-2023 with backlog within three years growing by 6.4% YoY. Considering the recovery momentum of global biotech funding and the potential geopolitical impact on its "Win-the-Molecule" projects, management expects the total revenue to grow by 5-10% YoY and non-COVID revenue to grow by 8-14% YoY in 2024E.
藥明生物（Wuxi Bio）報告2023年收入爲人民幣170.3億元，同比增長11.6％，應占淨收益爲34.0億元人民幣，同比下降23.1％，調整後的歸屬淨收益爲47.0億元人民幣，同比下降4.6％。收入和調整後的應占淨收益均符合我們的預期。如果不包括COVID收入，總收入將同比增長37.7％，後期和首席營銷官項目的收入將同比增長101.7％。截至2023年底，積壓總額爲205.9億美元，三年內積壓量同比增長6.4％。考慮到全球生物技術資金的復甦勢頭以及對其 “Win-the-Molecule” 項目的潛在地緣政治影響，管理層預計，2024E年，總收入將同比增長5-10％，非COVID收入將同比增長8-14％。
Early signs of industry demand recovery. WuXi Bio maintained solid
行業需求復甦的早期跡象。藥明生物保持穩定
growth in non-COVID revenue in 2023. If excluding COVID revenue, the total revenue would increase by 37.7% YoY in 2023, and revenue from late- stage and CMO projects would jump by 101.7% YoY. This proves solid client demand for WuXi Bio's services in the post-COVID era.
2023 年非 COVID 收入的增長。如果不包括COVID收入，2023年總收入將同比增長37.7％，後期和首席營銷官項目的收入將同比增長101.7％。這證明了在後COVID時代，客戶對藥明生物服務的強勁需求。
Geographically, non-COVID revenue from Europe, North America and other regions (ex. China) grew by 172.4%, 20.2% and 37.7% YoY, respectively.
從地理位置來看，來自歐洲、北美和其他地區的非 COVID 收入（例如中國）分別同比增長172.4％、20.2％和37.7％。
Non-COVID revenue in China slightly declined by 1.2% YoY in 2023 due to biotech funding constraints. Meanwhile, we noticed early signs of industry demand recovery such as the YTD rebound in global biotech funding. Thus, we expect steady growth for WuXi Bio's non-COVID revenue in 2024E.
由於生物技術資金的限制，2023年中國的非COVID收入同比略有下降1.2％。同時，我們注意到行業需求復甦的早期跡象，例如全球生物技術資金年初至今的反彈。因此，我們預計藥明生物在2024E年的非COVID收入將穩步增長。
The European market grew rapidly to mitigate geopolitical impact.
歐洲市場迅速增長，以減輕地緣政治影響。
Supported by demand from clients across various business sizes, revenue from European market impressively increased by 101.9% YoY in 2023, contributing 30.2% of WuXi Bio revenue. According to the management, European clients tend to be less sensitive to geopolitics. We think expanding revenue from European market will help WuXi Bio to reduce its business reliance on the US market. With a maturing manufacturing network in Ireland and German, management expects its strong performance in the EU market to continue.
在各種業務規模的客戶需求的支持下，2023年來自歐洲市場的收入同比增長了101.9％，佔藥明生物收入的30.2％。據管理層稱，歐洲客戶對地緣政治的敏感度往往較低。我們認爲，擴大歐洲市場的收入將有助於藥明生物減少對美國市場的業務依賴。隨着愛爾蘭和德國的製造網絡日趨成熟，管理層預計其在歐盟市場的強勁表現將繼續下去。
Share buyback to underscore mgt.'s confidence in business. According
股票回購是爲了強調管理層的利益。”是對業務的信心。根據
to an announcement on 5 Dec 2023, WuXi Bio has initiated a share repurchase plan with an aggregate value up to US$600mn. As of end-2023, the Company has repurchased 34.8mn H-shares with a total value of HK$1.0bn (~US$129mn). Based on our calculation, the number of share repurchased by WuXi Bio YTD has reached 47.6mn with a total value of HK$972mn (~US$125mn). The Company retains the capacity to repurchase shares valued at ~US$346mn, representing ~4.6% of WuXi Bio's latest market cap. Management anticipates the continuation of share buybacks.
在2023年12月5日的公告中，藥明生物啓動了一項股票回購計劃，總價值高達6億美元。截至2023年底，該公司已回購了3,480萬股H股，總價值爲10億港元（約合1.29億美元）。根據我們的計算，藥明生物年初至今回購的股票數量已達到4,760萬股，總價值爲9.72億港元（約合1.25億美元）。該公司保留回購價值約3.46億美元的股票的能力，約佔藥明生物最新市值的4.6％。管理層預計股票回購將繼續進行。
Maintain BUY. To reflect the geopolitical uncertainties, we cut our TP from HK$39.65 to HK$18.32, based on a 10-year DCF model with WACC of 10.95% and terminal growth of 2.0%. We forecast WuXi Bio's revenue to grow by 5.2%/ 13.6%/ 13.9% YoY and attributable adj. net income to increase by 7.5%/ 14.5%/ 13.9% YoY in 2024E/ 25E/ 26E, respectively.
維持買入。爲了反映地緣政治的不確定性，我們根據10年期差價合約模型將目標從39.65港元下調至18.32港元，WACC爲10.95％，終端增長2.0％。我們預測，在2024E/25E/26E，藥明生物的收入將同比增長5.2％/13.6％/13.9％，歸屬經調整後的淨收益將分別同比增長7.5％/14.5％/13.9％。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。