Hundsun Technologies Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
Hundsun Technologies Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
There's been a notable change in appetite for Hundsun Technologies Inc. (SHSE:600570) shares in the week since its yearly report, with the stock down 12% to CN¥22.08. Hundsun Technologies reported CN¥7.3b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.75 beat expectations, being 5.7% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
自年度報告發布以來，本週對恒生科技公司（上海證券交易所代碼：600570）股票的需求發生了顯著變化，該股下跌了12％，至22.08元人民幣。恒生科技公佈的收入爲73億元人民幣，與分析師的預測大致一致，儘管0.75元人民幣的法定每股收益（EPS）超出預期，比分析師的預期高出5.7％。根據結果，分析師更新了他們的盈利模式，很高興知道他們是否認爲公司的前景發生了巨大變化，或者業務是否照舊。因此，我們收集了最新的業績後預測，以了解估計對明年的預測。
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Hundsun Technologies from 20 analysts is for revenues of CN¥8.05b in 2024. If met, it would imply a decent 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 21% to CN¥0.91. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥8.93b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.08 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.
考慮到最新業績，20位分析師對恒生科技的最新共識是，2024年的收入爲80.5億元人民幣。如果得到滿足，這意味着其收入在過去12個月中將大幅增長11％。預計每股收益將飆升21％，至0.91元人民幣。在本業績發佈之前，分析師一直預測2024年的收入爲89.3億元人民幣，每股收益（EPS）爲1.08元人民幣。在最近的業績公佈後，分析師似乎不那麼樂觀，他們下調了收入預期，並實際削減了每股收益數字。
The analysts made no major changes to their price target of CN¥37.79, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Hundsun Technologies' valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Hundsun Technologies analyst has a price target of CN¥54.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥19.40. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
分析師對37.79元人民幣的目標股價沒有做出重大調整，這表明評級下調預計不會對恒生科技的估值產生長期影響。但是，這並不是我們可以從這些數據中得出的唯一結論，因爲一些投資者在評估分析師目標股價時也喜歡考慮估計值的差異。最樂觀的恒生科技分析師將目標股價定爲每股54.00元人民幣，而最悲觀的分析師則將目標股價定爲19.40元人民幣。注意到分析師目標股價的巨大差距了嗎？對我們來說，這意味着基礎業務存在相當廣泛的可能情景。
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Hundsun Technologies' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Hundsun Technologies' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 22% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Hundsun Technologies.
這些估計很有趣，但是在查看預測與恒生科技過去的表現以及與同一行業的同行進行比較時，可以更粗略地描述一些細節。很明顯，預計恒生科技的收入增長將大幅放緩，預計到2024年底的收入按年計算將增長11％。相比之下，過去五年的歷史增長率爲17％。相比之下，該行業的其他公司（根據分析師的預測），後者的總體收入預計每年將增長22％。因此，很明顯，儘管收入增長預計將放緩，但整個行業的增長速度預計也將超過恒生科技。
The Bottom Line
底線
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hundsun Technologies. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
最大的擔憂是，分析師下調了每股收益預期，這表明恒生科技可能會面臨業務不利因素。不幸的是，他們還下調了收入預期，我們的數據顯示，與整個行業相比，表現不佳。即便如此，每股收益對業務的內在價值更爲重要。共識目標股價沒有實際變化，這表明該業務的內在價值與最新估計相比沒有發生任何重大變化。
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Hundsun Technologies going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
考慮到這一點，我們仍然認爲該業務的長期發展軌跡對於投資者來說更爲重要。我們對恒生科技的預測將持續到2026年，你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Hundsun Technologies that we have uncovered.
在你採取下一步行動之前，你應該了解我們發現的恒生科技的1個警告信號。
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Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論，我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議，也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意，我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之，華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。
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