HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL(3692.HK):2023 RESULTS BEAT ON AMEILE AND COLLABORATION REVENUE; DOUBLEDIGIT DRUG SALES GROWTH IN 2024; UPGRADE TO BUY
HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL(3692.HK):2023 RESULTS BEAT ON AMEILE AND COLLABORATION REVENUE; DOUBLEDIGIT DRUG SALES GROWTH IN 2024; UPGRADE TO BUY
Hansoh Pharmaceutical
漢森製藥
2023 results beat on Ameile and collaboration revenue; Double- digit drug sales growth in 2024; Upgrade to BUY
2023 年的業績超過了 Ameile 和合作收入；2024 年藥品銷售額實現兩位數增長；升級至 BUY
Hansoh recorded favourable 2023 results, with revenue up by 7.7% YoY beating our estimates, thanks to strong sales growth of Ameile (+20% YoY) and BD revenue of RMB600m from GSK. Net profit increased by 26.9% YoY to RMB3.3bn, with NPM of 32%. The management expects double digit growth in drug sales in 2024, with over 70% from innovative drugs. Ameile is expected to generate 20% YoY growth in 2024 and sales of RMB6bn in 2026, per management. Post results, we upgrade Hansoh to BUY with TP of HK$17.2, factoring in the rapid growth of Ameile, collaboration revenue of RMB1.4bn in 2024, and other new products including TYK2 and GLP-1/GIP.
漢森在2023年取得了良好的業績，收入同比增長7.7％，超過了我們的預期，這要歸功於Ameile的強勁銷售增長（同比增長20％）和葛蘭素史克的6億元人民幣BD收入。淨利潤同比增長26.9％，達到33億元人民幣，其中NPM增長32％。管理層預計，2024年藥品銷售將實現兩位數的增長，其中70％以上來自創新藥物。每位管理層預計Ameile將在2024年實現20％的同比增長並在2026年實現60億元人民幣的銷售額。業績公佈後，考慮到Ameile的快速增長、2024年14億元人民幣的合作收入以及包括TYK2和GLP-1/GIP在內的其他新產品，我們將漢索上調至買入，目標價爲17.2港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
2023 results beat: Hansoh announced 2023 results with revenue up 7.7% YoY to RMB10.1bn, beating our estimates, mainly driven by strong growth of Ameile (+20% YoY in terms of sales and +100% YoY in terms of volume) and BD revenue of RMB600m from GSK, while revenue from CNS and anti-infective rug slightly missed our expectation. Revenue of innovative drugs and collaborative products amounted to RMB6.87bn (+37.1% YoY), accounting for 68% of total revenue (vs. 53% in 2022). Sales (including BD revenue) of CNS diseases/oncology/anti-infective/metabolic diseases and others changed by - 9%/+12%/+2%/+26% in 2023.
2023年業績超過預期：漢森公佈了2023年業績，收入同比增長7.7％，至101億元人民幣，超過了我們的預期，這主要是由Ameile的強勁增長（銷售額同比增長20％，銷量同比增長100％）和葛蘭素史克的6億元人民幣BD收入的推動，而中樞神經系統和抗感染藥物的收入略低於我們的預期。創新藥物和協作產品的收入爲人民幣68.7億元（同比增長37.1％），佔總收入的68％（2022年爲53％）。2023年，中樞神經系統疾病/腫瘤學/抗感染/代謝疾病等的銷售額（包括業務發展收入）增長了-9％/ +12％/ +2％/+26％。
GPM stayed at 90% thanks to the collaboration revenue offsetting the impact of Ameile's price cut. RnD expense soared by 24% YoY to RMB2.1bn or 20.8% of revenue (vs 18.0% in 2022). Net profit increased by 26.9% YoY to RMB3.3bn, with net margin of 32%. The management expects double digit growth in drug sales in 2024, with over 70% from innovative drugs. Besides, the management expects milestone revenue with undisclosed amount from GSK in 2024. The management expects its sales force to remain at 5,000-5,500 people, with improved output per capita in 2024.
由於合作收入抵消了Ameile降價的影響，GPM保持在90％。Rnd 支出同比飆升24％，至21億元人民幣，佔收入的20.8％（2022年爲18.0％）。淨利潤同比增長26.9％，達到33億元人民幣，淨利潤率爲32％。管理層預計，2024年藥品銷售將實現兩位數的增長，其中70％以上來自創新藥物。此外，管理層預計，葛蘭素史克將在2024年獲得具有里程碑意義的收入，金額未公開。管理層預計，其銷售隊伍將保持在5,000-5,500人，2024年人均產出將有所改善。
Ameile as the strong growth driver: Ameile delivered 20% YoY growth in sales upon 43% price cut after being included in NRDL as 1L EGFR-mutant NSCLC in 2023, beating our expectation. After digesting the impact of price cut in 2023, Ameile is expected to generate 20% YoY growth in 2024 and sales of RMB6bn in 2026, as per management, thanks to its broad hospital and pharmacy coverage and indication expansion, including adjuvant NSCLC (sNDA submission in 3Q24 and potential approval before June 2025), +chemo in 1L NSCLC, +EGFR/c-Met in 1LNSCLC (to initiate pivotal trial in 2025), + HS-10241 (c-MET) in c-MET NSCLC (ongoing pivotal trial), and +ADC in EGFR-TKI failed NSCLC, etc.
Ameile是強勁的增長動力：Ameile在2023年作爲1L EGFR突變體NSCLC被納入NRDL後，降價43％，實現了20％的銷售額同比增長20％，超出了我們的預期。管理層表示，在消化了2023年降價的影響後，預計Ameile將在2024年實現20％的同比增長，2026年的銷售額將達到60億元人民幣，這要歸功於其廣泛的醫院和藥房覆蓋範圍以及適應症的擴大，包括輔助性非小細胞肺癌（在24年第三季度提交snda並可能在2025年6月之前獲得批准），+1L NSCLC的化療，1LNSCLC的+EGFR/c-Met（將於 2025 年啓動關鍵試驗），+ 在 c-Met NSCLC 中啓動 HS-10241（c-Met）（正在進行的關鍵試驗），以及 EGFR-TKI 失敗的 NSCLC 中的 +ADC 等
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。