BOE VARITRONIX(710.HK):FOCUS ON HIGH-END DEMAND AND OVERSEAS DEMAND TO DRIVE RECOVERY
BOE VARITRONIX(710.HK):FOCUS ON HIGH-END DEMAND AND OVERSEAS DEMAND TO DRIVE RECOVERY
BOEVx delivered flattish revenue in 2023 while net profit dropped 18% YoY due to EBITDA margin pressure on lower ASP and higher depreciation. For 2H23, we are encouraged by its NPM recovery to 4.9% (vs 3.9% in 1H23), given improving yield and operation efficiency at the Chengdu plant. For 2024, mgmt. is positive on high- end product growth, rising UTR and expansion of overseas customers. We lowered our FY24-25E EPS by 28-32% to reflect on-going auto OEM price war but steady NPM. Trading at 6.5x/5.7x FY24/25E (1-sd below 4-year avg.), we think risk-reward is attractive. Maintain BUY with a new TP of HK$10.94 based on lowered 15x FY24E P/E (vs 20x prior) for near-term industry headwinds.
由於ASP降低和折舊率上升帶來的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率壓力，BoeVX在2023年實現了持平的收入，而淨利潤同比下降了18％。鑑於成都工廠產量和運營效率的提高，其NPM回升至4.9％（23年上半年的3.9％），這令我們感到鼓舞。對於2024年，mgmt. 對高端產品的增長、UTR的上升和海外客戶的擴張持樂觀態度。我們將 FY24-25E 每股收益下調了28-32％，以反映持續的汽車製造商價格戰，但NPM保持穩定。我們認爲風險回報具有吸引力，交易價格爲24/25財年的6.5倍/5.7倍（比4年平均水平低1倍）。FY24E 市盈率下調了15倍（前值爲20倍），以10.94港元的新目標價維持買入，以應對短期行業的不利因素。
FY23 earnings below market expectation due to ASP/margin pressure despite improving yield and efficiency. BOEVx revenue was up 0.4% YoY in 2023 driven by stable growth in TFT products, touch panel display modules and automotive system products, offset by RMB depreciation of 8.5% and passive products' sales decline. EBITDA margin dropped 0.6ppt due to ASP adjustment and higher costs such as staff cost, PP&E depreciation and the Chengdu plant's marginal cost. 2H23 net margin of 4.9% showed positive signs of improvement (vs 3.9% in 1H23) given better yield and operation efficiency at the Chengdu plant.
儘管收益率和效率有所提高，但由於ASP/利潤壓力，23財年的收益仍低於市場預期。受TFT產品、觸摸屏顯示模塊和汽車系統產品的穩定增長的推動，BoeVx在2023年收入同比增長0.4％，但被人民幣貶值8.5％和被動產品的銷售下降所抵消。由於ASP調整以及員工成本、PP＆E折舊和成都工廠的邊際成本等成本上漲，息稅折舊攤銷前利潤率下降了0.6個百分點。鑑於成都工廠的產量和運營效率的提高，23年下半年的淨利潤率爲4.9％，顯示出改善的積極跡象（相比於23年上半年的3.9％）。
2024 outlook: rapid growth in LTPS/Oxide/OLED products, rising UTR at Chengdu plant, and overseas expansion on track. For 2024, mgmt. is positive on sales growth to outperform industry average (Omdia: 5% YoY). By product, mgmt. expected 1) Oxide: double-digit growth, 2) LTPS: higher shipments, 3) OLED: 200%+ YoY on high-end customers' demand, 4) a-Si: high shipment growth with stable share, and 5) mid-to-large-sized products: double-digit shipment growth. In addition, system business is expected to achieve 100% YoY in FY24E. As for the Chengdu plant, mgmt. guided a solid backlog in 1H24E and rising UTR on production optimization. For overseas market, mgmt. expected customer expansion to be on track and guided double-digit YoY growth on new order wins.
2024年展望：LTPS/氧化物/OLED產品的快速增長，成都工廠的UTR上升，海外擴張步入正軌。2024年，管理層對銷售增長持樂觀態度，將超過行業平均水平（Omdia：同比增長5％）。按產品劃分，管理層預期 1) 氧化物：兩位數增長，2) LTPS：出貨量增加，3) OLED：高端客戶需求同比增長200％以上，4) a-SI：出貨量高增長，份額穩定，5) 大中型產品：兩位數的出貨量增長。此外，預計在 FY24E 中，系統業務將實現同比增長100％。至於成都工廠，mgmt. 指導了 1H24E 的穩步積壓，生產優化方面的UTR不斷提高。對於海外市場，mgmt. 預計客戶擴張將步入正軌，並指引新訂單贏得後實現兩位數的同比增長。
NPM recovery on track despite overhang from price war; maintain BUY. We expect near-term ASP/GPM will still be under pressure given the on- going price war among China auto OEM. However, we remain positive on margin recovery in FY24-25E given less domestic capacity investment and better operation efficiency at the Chengdu plant. We lower our FY24-25E EPS by 28-32% to factor in more conservative ASP on auto price war. Maintain BUY and cut TP to HK$10.94 based on lowered 15x FY24E P/E.
儘管價格戰懸而未決，但NPM的復甦仍步入正軌；維持買入。鑑於中國汽車製造商之間持續的價格戰，我們預計短期ASP/GPM仍將面臨壓力。但是，鑑於國內產能投資減少和成都工廠運營效率的提高，我們對 FY24-25E 的利潤回升仍然持樂觀態度。考慮到汽車價格戰中更爲保守的ASP，我們將 FY24-25E 每股收益下調了28-32％。維持買入並在下調的15倍 FY24E 市盈率的基礎上將目標價下調至10.94港元。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。