YONGDA AUTOMOBILES(3669.HK):2H23 MISS ON GPM; COST CONTROL KEY TO FY24E
YONGDA AUTOMOBILES(3669.HK):2H23 MISS ON GPM; COST CONTROL KEY TO FY24E
Yongda Automobiles (Yonda)'s 2H23 net profit fell 59% HoH to RMB166mn, lower than our prior forecast by 12% due to lower-than-expected revenue and GPM of after-sales services. As the net margin fell to below 1% with deteriorated new-car GPM, cost control becomes the key to Yongda's profitability. We believe cost control is attainable in FY24E given network optimization. The company increased its dividend payout ratio to 53% in FY23, implying a dividend yield of 8%. The dividend payout ratio will probably not decline in FY24E.
永達汽車（Yonda）下半年的淨利潤同比下降59％，至人民幣1.66億元，比我們先前的預測低12％，這是由於收入和售後服務的GPM低於預期。隨着新車GPM的惡化，淨利潤率降至1％以下，成本控制成爲永達盈利的關鍵。我們認爲，鑑於網絡優化，FY24E 可以實現成本控制。該公司在23財年將其股息支付率提高至53％，這意味着股息收益率爲8％。在 FY24E 中，股息支付率可能不會下降。
2H23 earnings miss on after-sales services. Yongda's 2H23 revenue was 3% higher than our prior forecast due to higher new-car sales volume. Yet, its 2H23 GPM of 6.3% was 1.1ppts lower than our prior forecast as the GPM of after-sales services fell to 40.1% from 43.1% in 1H23, the lowest level since FY12 (IPO). Yongda's 2H23 new-car GPM of 0.2% also hit a record low level, which was still a bit better than our prior expectation, due to higher- than-peers GPM for BMW brand. The commission income and SG&A ratio in 2H23 were better than our prior forecast, thanks to higher unit income from the NEV agency business and better cost control. Yongda's 2H23 net profit of RMB166mn was lower than our prior forecast by 12%.
23 年下半年的售後服務收益不佳。由於新車銷量增加，永達23年下半年的收入比我們先前的預測高出3％。然而，其23上半年的GPM爲6.3％，比我們先前的預測低1.1個百分點，原因是售後服務的GPM從23年上半年的43.1％降至40.1％，爲2012財年（IPO）以來的最低水平。永達下半年新車GPM爲0.2％，也創下歷史新低，仍略好於我們先前的預期，這是由於寶馬品牌的GPM高於同行。由於新能源汽車代理業務的單位收入增加和成本控制的改善，23年下半年的佣金收入和銷售與收購比率好於我們先前的預測。永達23年下半年的淨利潤爲人民幣1.66億元，比我們先前的預測低12％。
Cost control still the key to profitability. We cut Yongda's new-car sales volume forecast to 181,000 units (-7% YoY) in FY24E, given more stores were closed than expected in FY23. We project new-car GPM to fall to 0.2% in FY24E from 0.3% in FY23, as the GPM deterioration from other brands could offset the improvement from Porsche's. We project FY24E after-sales service revenue to rise 4% YoY, while its GPM may be flat at 41% as the negative impact from the new car market still exists. As the net margin fell to below 1%, the company's profitability becomes more sensitive to cost control. We forecast Yongda's SG&A expenses to narrow by RMB146mn YoY in FY24E, as automakers begin to lower their requirements for dealers in marketing expenses amid market changes and Yongda has been optimizing sales network. Therefore, we project Yongda's FY24E net profit to rise 14% YoY to RMB654mn.
成本控制仍然是盈利的關鍵。鑑於23財年關閉的門店數量超過預期，我們將永達在 FY24E 中的新車銷量預測下調至18.1萬輛（同比下降7％）。我們預計，FY24E 的新車毛利率將從23財年的0.3％降至0.2％，因爲其他品牌的GPM下降可能會抵消保時捷的改善。我們預計，FY24E 售後服務收入將同比增長4％，而由於新車市場的負面影響仍然存在，其GPM可能持平至41％。隨着淨利潤率降至1％以下，該公司的盈利能力對成本控制變得更加敏感。我們預測，在 FY24E 中，永達的銷售和收購支出將同比縮小1.46億元人民幣，原因是汽車製造商在市場變化中開始降低對經銷商的營銷費用要求，永達一直在優化銷售網絡。因此，我們預計永達的 FY24E 淨利潤將同比增長14％，達到6.54億元人民幣。
Valuation/Key risks. We maintain BUY rating and cut target price from HK$2.80 to HK$2.70, still based on 7x our revised FY24E EPS. Key risks to our rating and TP include lower sales volume and/or margins, slower after- sales service growth than expected, higher operating expenses, as well as a sector de-rating.
估值/主要風險。我們維持買入評級，並將目標價從2.80港元下調至2.70港元，但仍基於我們修訂後的 FY24E 每股收益的7倍。我們評級和目標的主要風險包括銷售量和/或利潤率降低、售後服務增長低於預期、運營費用增加以及行業評級下調。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。