ENN ENERGY(2688.HK):DOWNGRADE AS CORE EARNINGS COULD STILL BE STAGNANT IN 2024
ENN ENERGY(2688.HK):DOWNGRADE AS CORE EARNINGS COULD STILL BE STAGNANT IN 2024
While ENN Energy's 5% YoY drop in 2023 core earnings is in line with its guidance, the gross profits of all segments other than retail gas sales were below our forecasts. For 2024, the company guides for 10%+ YoY in core earnings of its domestic operations. However, it could be flat if sales of international LNG is included. The decline in ASP and margin of its integrated energy business is a negative trend.
儘管新南能源公司2023年核心收益同比下降5％，符合其預期，但除零售天然氣銷售以外的所有細分市場的毛利均低於我們的預期。該公司預計，2024年，其國內業務的核心收益將同比增長10％。但是，如果將國際液化天然氣的銷售包括在內，則可能會持平。ASP及其綜合能源業務利潤率的下降是一個負面趨勢。
We trim our earnings forecasts by 2% for 2024/25 and downgrade our call to HOLD. We need more clarity to take a more positive stance.
我們將2024/25年的收益預期下調了2％，並將看漲期權下調至持有。我們需要更明確才能採取更積極的立場。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
The company's core earnings in 2023 were 12% above our forecast as it included RMB227m gain on repurchase of senior notes and bigger-than-expected realised hedging gain. We cannot really forecast the latter.
該公司2023年的核心收益比我們的預測高出12％，其中包括人民幣2.27億元的優先票據回購收益和超出預期的已實現套期保值收益。我們無法真正預測後者。
Its gross profit dropped 9% YoY in 2023, 5% below our forecast. Retail gas, wholesale gas and new connections all showed lower earnings. Retail gas volume dropped 3% YoY as the sales to C&I clients fell 4% YoY after losing the sales to a power plant. Its gross profit from gas wholesale plummeted 60% YoY after the bonanza of 2022 from the ultra high gas price in Europe. New residential connection fell 11% YoY as the decline in property investment hit demand.
其毛利在2023年同比下降9％，比我們的預測低5％。零售天然氣、批發天然氣和新連接均顯示出較低的收益。零售天然氣銷量同比下降3％，原因是C＆I客戶的銷售額在輸給發電廠後同比下降了4％。在2022年歐洲超高天然氣價格帶來的豐收之後，其天然氣批發毛利同比下降了60％。由於房地產投資的下降打擊了需求，新住宅連接同比下降了11％。
While the energy sales of its integrated energy business surged 56% YoY in 2023, the implied 15% YoY fall of ASP is a concern. Gross margin of this business dropped from 14.2% in 2022 to 13.1% in 2023 as some new projects had not yet fully ramped up.
儘管其綜合能源業務的能源銷售在2023年同比增長了56％，但ASP的同比下降了15％，這令人擔憂。由於一些新項目尚未完全啓動，該業務的毛利率從2022年的14.2％下降到2023年的13.1％。
For 2024, the company guides for 5%+ YoY growth in retail gas sales. However, we are not sure how the company can achieve this as retail gas sales only edged up 1% YoY in 4Q23. We believe it will have to give concession in gas price and this is probably why the company does not give guidance on dollar margin but instead set a 10%+ YoY growth target for the gross profit of retail gas sales.
該公司預計，2024年，天然氣零售銷售將同比增長5％以上。但是，我們不確定該公司如何實現這一目標，因爲零售天然氣銷售在23年第四季度僅同比增長了1％。我們認爲它必須在汽油價格上給予讓步，這可能就是爲什麼該公司沒有給出美元利潤率指導，而是爲零售天然氣銷售的毛利設定了同比增長10％以上的目標的原因。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Faster-than-expected retail gas sales volume growth.
零售天然氣銷售量的增長快於預期。
Higher-than-expected new connections.
新連接高於預期。
Valuation
估價
We lower our DCF valuation and hence target price from HK$69.12 to HK$67.19 to reflect the cuts in our earnings forecasts. Our new target price puts us at 9.1x 2024E core earnings.
我們將差價合約的估值和目標價格從69.12港元下調至67.19港元，以反映收益預測的下調。我們的新目標價格使我們的2024E核心收益達到9.1倍。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。