FIT HON TENG(6088.HK):NDR TAKEAWAYS:OPPORTUNITIES IN US$1.7BN SERVER CONNECTOR/CABLE MARKET; LIFT TP TO HK$2.42
FIT HON TENG(6088.HK):NDR TAKEAWAYS:OPPORTUNITIES IN US$1.7BN SERVER CONNECTOR/CABLE MARKET; LIFT TP TO HK$2.42
Maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$2.42 to reflect stronger demand of next-gen high-speed connectivity in AI servers in FY24/25E, backed by MCIO connectors /cables and high-speed I/O products, recent launch of 224G high-speed products at DesignCon (link), and collaboration with MediaTek for high-speed connectivity solutions in CPO sockets at OFC (link). During our NDR last week, mgmt. was positive on rising copper connectivity trend in AI servers and expected 1) 15-20% YoY for networking/server in FY24E (30-40% GPM), and 2) AI server related revenue (mainly copper) to reach 8-10% FY24E sales (vs. 1% in FY23), backed by new copper products and high-speed connection products in AI server. We lifted FY24-25 EPS by 9-10% to reflect stronger demand of AI-related products and share gain from the US peers (Amphenol, TEL, Molex) in global server connector market following mass production of new AI products in FY24/25E.
維持買入並將目標價提高至2.42港元，以反映24/25財年人工智能服務器對下一代高速連接的需求強勁，這得益於MCIO連接器/電纜和高速I/O產品、最近在DesignCon上推出的224G高速產品（鏈接），以及與聯發科合作在OFC（鏈接）CPO插槽中提供高速連接解決方案。在上週的NDR中，mgmt對人工智能服務器銅連接的上升趨勢持樂觀態度，並預計 1) FY24E 的網絡/服務器同比增長15-20％（GPM 30-40％），2）人工智能服務器相關收入（主要是銅）將在新的銅產品和人工智能服務器中的高速連接產品的支持下，FY24E 銷售額將達到8-10％（23財年的1％）。我們將FY24-25 每股收益提高了9-10％，以反映出繼24/25財年新人工智能產品批量生產後，對人工智能相關產品的需求增強，以及美國同行（安費諾、泰爾、莫萊克斯）在全球服務器連接器市場的份額上漲。
Poised to benefit from AI server copper connectivity trends. As a global server connector leader (along with Amphenol, TEL and Molex), during our NDR last week, FIT mgmt. is positive on the trend of high-speed copper connectivity in Nvidia's GB200 NVL72, which uses 5,000 copper cables (over 2 miles) for intra-rank connections for better reliability and cost/power efficiency. Leveraging collaboration with Foxconn Group and key ODM/CSP players for Nvidia products, FIT guided 15-20% YoY growth for networking /server segment, and AI-related products (mainly copper) will reach 8-10% of FY24E sales (vs 1% in FY23), driven by new copper products launched in 4Q23 and 2H24E mass production of MCIO connectors/cables and high- speed I/O such as EDSFF and Gen-Z connectors.
有望從人工智能服務器銅纜連接趨勢中受益。作爲全球服務器連接器的領導者（以及Amphenol、TEL和Molex），在上週的NDR中，FIT管理部門對Nvidia GB200 NVL72 的高速銅連接趨勢持樂觀態度，該公司使用5,000根銅纜（超過2英里）進行等級內連接，以提高可靠性和成本/功率效率。利用與富士康集團和英偉達產品主要ODM/CSP參與者的合作，FIT引導網絡/服務器細分市場同比增長15-20％，人工智能相關產品（主要是銅）將達到 FY24E 銷售額的8-10％（23財年爲1％），這得益於23財年第四季度推出的新銅產品以及MCIO連接器/電纜和高速I/O（例如EDSFF和Z世代連接器）的批量生產。2H24E
Server connector & cable market TAM to reach US$ 1.7bn in 2025. Mgmt. estimated global server connector & cable market TAM of US$ 1.7bn in 2025, and we expect FIT to capture 20-30% market share, reaching US$500mn sales in FY25E. Overall, we expect FIT's net profit to grow 55%/27% YoY in FY24/25E, backed by AI server connectivity product ramp- up, AirPods share gain and Voltaira auto business consolidation.
服務器連接器和電纜市場的總收入將在2025年達到17億美元。管理層估計，到2025年，全球服務器連接器和電纜市場的總收入爲17億美元，我們預計FIT將佔據20-30％的市場份額，FY25E 的銷售額達到5億美元。總體而言，我們預計，在人工智能服務器連接產品的提升、AirPods的份額增長和Voltaira汽車業務整合的支持下，FIT的淨利潤將在24/25財年同比增長55％/27％。
Expect more catalysts in near term; Raise TP to HK$2.42. FIT's stock surged 53% since our last TP upgrade on 14 Mar (report), driven by upbeat FY24 guidance and opportunities of within-rack copper connectivity in NVIDIA's GB200 NVL72 system at GTC 2024. Trading at 9.2x/7.2x FY24/25 P/E (vs 15x hist. avg. P/E), we think the valuation is attractive. Reiterate BUY with new TP of HK$ 2.42, based on same 11x FY24E P/E. Near-term catalysts include AI server product launch and AirPods shipment.
預計短期內會有更多催化劑；將目標價提高至2.42港元。自3月14日我們上次上調目標價（報告）以來，FIT的股價飆升了53％，這得益於樂觀的24財年指導以及NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 系統在2024年GTC上出現機架內銅連接的機會。25財年市盈率爲9.2倍/7.2倍（歷史平均值爲15倍）P/E），我們認爲估值很有吸引力。根據相同的11倍 FY24E 市盈率，新的目標價爲2.42港元，重申買入。短期催化劑包括人工智能服務器產品的發佈和AirPods的出貨。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。