LONGFOR GROUP(960.HK):DIVIDEND PAYOUT MAINTAINED WITH SOLID CASH FLOW
LONGFOR GROUP(960.HK):DIVIDEND PAYOUT MAINTAINED WITH SOLID CASH FLOW
Longfor's 2023 revenue declined by 27.9% YoY to RMB180.7bn, 8.9% below our estimation. Development property (DP) revenue declined 31.3% YoY, lower than our estimation, while investment property (IP) revenue grew 8.9% YoY, better than our estimation. Gross margin narrowed by 4.2ppts YoY to 16.9%, 1.6ppts below our estimation; therefore, gross profit declined by 42.3% YoY, 17% below our estimation. Selling and marketing expenses only declined by 1.4% YoY and were 24.5% higher than our estimation. As such, core net profit declined by 49.6% YoY to RMB11.35bn, 24.6% below our estimation. Core EPS was 25.8% and 27.6% below BOCI and market estimations. Longfor announced a final dividend of RMB0.23/share, making the total 2023 dividend at RMB0.55/share, and maintaining 32% payout ratio. We cut our 2024-25E core EPS by 33.9% and 49.1%, respectively considering slower contracted sales and lower margin, and cut our TP by 31% to HK$14.37. We like Longfor's increased contribution from recurring income, positive operating cash flow and stronger financial positions, and maintain BUY rating for the stock.
朗富2023年的收入同比下降27.9％，至人民幣1,807億元，比我們的估計低8.9％。開發地產（DP）收入同比下降31.3％，低於我們的預期，而投資地產（IP）收入同比增長8.9％，好於我們的預期。毛利率同比下降4.2個百分點至16.9％，比我們的估計低1.6個百分點；因此，毛利同比下降42.3％，比我們的估計低17％。銷售和營銷費用同比僅下降了1.4％，比我們的估計高出24.5％。因此，核心淨利潤同比下降49.6％，至113.5億元人民幣，比我們的估計低24.6％。核心每股收益比中銀國際和市場預期低25.8％和27.6％。龍湖宣佈派發每股0.23元人民幣的末期股息，使2023年的股息總額爲每股0.55元人民幣，並維持32％的派息率。考慮到合同銷售放緩和利潤率降低，我們將2024-25年度的核心每股收益分別下調了33.9％和49.1％，並將目標股下調了31％，至14.37港元。我們喜歡Longfor增加的經常性收入、正的運營現金流和更強的財務狀況，並維持該股的買入評級。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Longfor's contracted sales amounted to RMB173.5bn in 2023, representing 13.9% YoY decline, which is one of the smallest declines among all private developers. Cash collection exceeded 100%. Total saleable resources in 2023 amounted to RMB310bn, indicating 56% sell-through rate. For 2024, Longfor has already planned RMB240bn saleable resources without new projects. Considering more saleable resources is likely to be added with new projects, we estimate 10% YoY decline on contracted sales in 2024 to RMB156bn.
2023年，Longfor的合同銷售額爲人民幣1735億元，同比下降13.9％，是所有私人開發商中降幅最小的下降幅度之一。現金收款超過100％。2023 年的可售資源總額爲 3100 億元人民幣，銷售率爲 56%。對於2024年，龍湖已經計劃了2400億元人民幣的可售資源，無需新項目。考慮到新項目可能會增加更多可銷售資源，我們估計2024年合同銷售額同比下降10％，至1560億元人民幣。
Longfor generated positive operating cash flow in 2023, and lowered its net gearing by 2.1ppts to 55.9%. Adjusted liability to asset ratio was also further down from 2022's 65% to 60%, and cash to short-term debt ratio remained at above 2x. Remaining bond maturing in 2024 amounts to RMB6bn, all on-shore. Repayment fund is already ready for the RMB1.5bn maturing in May. Longfor's stress test shows that with 15% decrease in 2024 contracted sales, the company would still have the safety margin to generate RMB10bn positive operating cash flow after spending RMB20bn on the land market.
Longfor在2023年創造了正的運營現金流，並將其淨資產負債率下調了2.1個百分點至55.9％。調整後的負債資產比率也從2022年的65％進一步下降至60％，現金與短期債務的比率保持在2倍以上。2024年到期的剩餘債券總額爲60億元人民幣，全部在岸。還款基金已經爲5月到期的15億元人民幣做好了準備。Longfor的壓力測試顯示，隨着2024年的合同銷售額下降15％，該公司在土地市場上花費200億元人民幣後，仍將有安全餘地產生100億元人民幣的正運營現金流。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Property market recovery may be slower than expected.
房地產市場的復甦可能比預期的要慢。
Valuation
估價
To factor in slower contracted sales and lower margin, we cut our estimated NAV by 31% to HK$23.95/share, and maintain our target discount to NAV at 40%. The stock currently trades at 0.4x 2024E P/B, 55.7% discount to NAV and 6.1% 2024E dividend yield. We see such valuation as undemanding, given Longfor's strong financial position, positive operating cash flow, and stable recurring income growth.
考慮到合同銷售放緩和利潤率降低，我們將估計資產淨值下調了31％，至每股23.95港元，並將資產淨值的目標折扣維持在40％。該股目前的市盈率爲2024年的0.4倍，資產淨值折扣55.7％，2024E股息收益率爲6.1％。鑑於Longfor強勁的財務狀況、正的運營現金流和穩定的經常性收入增長，我們認爲這種估值要求不高。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。