J&T EXPRESS(1519.HK):ADJUSTED NET LOSS IN 2023 LESS THAN EXPECTED;ASP BEAT IN CHINA MARKET BUT MISS IN SEA
J&T EXPRESS(1519.HK):ADJUSTED NET LOSS IN 2023 LESS THAN EXPECTED;ASP BEAT IN CHINA MARKET BUT MISS IN SEA
J&T's adjusted after-tax loss in 2023 came in at US$432mn, improving from - US$1.49bn in 2022 and is better than our estimate of -US$494mn. The key positive came from a surprising increase in ASP in China market in 2H23, which helped it achieve breakeven at the segmental gross profit level. Looking forward, we forecast China market to see potential for breakeven at net profit level at some point in 2024E. On the contrary, we expect the ASP pressure in SEA and new markets to continue in 2024E. We therefore revise down our SOTP-based target price to HK$12.8. Maintain HOLD as the valuation is not attractive enough, in our view.
J＆T在2023年調整後的稅後虧損爲4.32億美元，高於2022年的-14.9億美元，好於我們估計的-4.94億美元。關鍵的利好因素來自於23年下半年中國市場的ASP出人意料的增長，這幫助其在細分市場的毛利水平上實現了盈虧平衡。展望未來，我們預測中國市場在2024E的某個時候可能會在淨利潤水平上實現盈虧平衡。相反，我們預計東南亞和新市場的ASP壓力將在2024E持續下去。因此，我們將基於SOTP的目標價下調至12.8港元。在我們看來，維持持有，因爲估值不夠吸引人。
SEA: Strong volume in line but ASP lower than expected. Revenue in 2023 grew 11% YoY to US$2.6bn, driven by 29% parcel volume growth (to 3.2bn units) but offset by a 14% ASP decline (to US$0.81). Market share in SEA expanded 2.9ppt YoY to 25.4%. Given a stable unit cost, the unit gross margin in 2023 dropped 13% YoY to US$0.14. In 2H23, parcel volume surged 39% YoY (1H23: +18%) while ASP dropped 17% YoY (1H23: -11%).
東南亞：成交量強勁，但ASP低於預期。2023年的收入同比增長11％，達到26億美元，這得益於29％的包裹量增長（至32億個），但被ASP下降14％（至0.81美元）所抵消。東南亞的市場份額同比增長2.9個百分點至25.4％。鑑於單位成本穩定，2023年的單位毛利率同比下降13％，至0.14美元。在23年下半年，包裹量同比增長39％（23年上半年：+ 18％），而ASP同比下降17％（23年上半年：-11％）。
China: Breakeven at gross profit level driven by resilient ASP and cost reduction. Revenue in 2023 grew 28% YoY to US$5.2bn, driven by 28% parcel volume growth (to 15.3bn units) and a stable ASP (US$0.34). Market share expanded 0.7ppt YoY to 11.6%. On the back of a 14% YoY decline in unit cost, the segment achieved breakeven. In 2H23, parcel volume surged 39% YoY (1H23: +15%) while ASP surprisingly increased 2% YoY (1H23: -2%). The better-than-expected ASP was driven by an improved customer mix, as well as increases in the proportion of reverse parcels and individual orders.
中國：在彈性ASP和成本降低的推動下，毛利水平實現盈虧平衡。2023年的收入同比增長28％，達到52億美元，這得益於28％的包裹量增長（至153億個）和穩定的ASP（0.34美元）。市場份額同比增長0.7個百分點至11.6％。在單位成本同比下降14％的背景下，該細分市場實現了盈虧平衡。在23年下半年，包裹量同比增長39％（上半年：+15％），而ASP出人意料地同比增長了2％（23年上半年：-2％）。ASP好於預期是由客戶組合的改善以及反向包裹和個人訂單比例的增加所推動的。
New markets: Strong volume growth on track: Due to a low base, revenue in 2023 surged 3x YoY to US$327mn, driven by 3.7x parcel volume growth (to 230mn units) but offset by a 15% ASP decline (to US$1.42). In 2H23, parcel volume surged 2.6x YoY (1H23: +9.8x) while ASP dropped 22% YoY (1H23: +2%).
新市場：強勁的銷量增長步入正軌：由於基數低，2023年的收入同比激增3倍至3.27億美元，這得益於3.7倍的包裹量增長（至2.3億件），但被ASP下降15％（至1.42美元）所抵消。在23年下半年，包裹量同比增長2.6倍（23年上半年：+9.8倍），而ASP同比下降22％（23年上半年：+2％）。
Upside risks: 1) further improvement in China market's profitability; 2) stronger-than-expected growth in new markets. Downside risks: 1) high dependence on the development of the e-commerce industry and key customers; 2) further ASP pressure; 3) fluctuations in foreign exchange rates.
上行風險：1）中國市場的盈利能力進一步改善；2）新市場的增長強於預期。下行風險：1）高度依賴電子商務行業和主要客戶的發展；2）ASP的進一步壓力；3）外匯匯率的波動。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。