AAC TECH(2018.HK):SOLID OUTLOOK FOR PSS MERGER & OPTICS MARGIN RECOVERY; MAINTAIN HOLD ON FAIR VALUATION
AAC TECH(2018.HK):SOLID OUTLOOK FOR PSS MERGER & OPTICS MARGIN RECOVERY; MAINTAIN HOLD ON FAIR VALUATION
AAC reported FY23 revenue of RMB20.4bn (-1.0% YoY) and net income of RMB740mn (-9.9% YoY), above consensus estimates mainly due to exchange gains and other income. FY23 GPM came in at 16.9%, largely in line, and 2H23 GPM recovered to 19.2% (+1.4ppts YoY/+5.1ppts HoH), driven by demand recovery and product upgrades. For FY24E, mgmt. guided 10-15% YoY sales growth (+20-30% YoY including PSS), driven by: 1) an optics GPM turnaround in 2H24E on market recovery, spec upgrades and WLG ramp-up; 2) auto biz PSS integration to bring auto synergy; 3) acoustics/haptics/casing/hinges to benefit from model launches and market share gains, and 4) AI phone upgrades in acoustics and cooling parts. Overall, we lift our FY24/25E EPS by 29/50% to reflect the PSS deal and stronger margin and business outlook. While we are positive on AAC's business outlook, the stock now trades at 20.2x/16.2x FY24/25E P/E, which is fair in our view. Maintain Hold with a new SOTP-based TP of HK$22.44, implying 18.0x FY24E P/E
AAC報告稱，23財年收入爲204億元人民幣（同比下降1.0％），淨收入爲人民幣7.4億元（同比下降9.9％），高於市場普遍預期，這主要是由於匯兌收益和其他收入。受需求復甦和產品升級的推動，23財年GPM爲16.9％，基本持平，下半年GPM恢復至19.2％（同比增長1.4個百分點/環比增長5.1個百分點）。對於 FY24E 而言，管理層預計銷售額同比增長 10-15%（包括 PSS，同比增長 20-30%），這得益於：1) 2H24E 在市場復甦、規格升級和 WLG 提升方面的光學 GPM 轉變；2) 汽車業務 PSS 整合帶來汽車協同效應；3) 聲學/觸覺/外殼/鉸鏈將受益於車型發佈和市場份額的增加，以及 4) 聲學和 AI 手機在聲學方面的升級冷卻部件。總體而言，我們將24/25財年的每股收益提高了29/ 50％，以反映PSS交易以及更強的利潤率和業務前景。儘管我們對AAC的業務前景持樂觀態度，但該股目前的交易價格爲24/25財年的市盈率爲20.2倍/16.2倍，在我們看來，這是公平的。維持持有，基於標準止損標準的新目標價爲22.44港元，這意味着市盈率爲18.0倍 FY24E
FY23 earnings beat on across-the-board margin recovery. By segment, acoustics/ED&PM/optics/MEMS revenue posted -15%/+13%/+13%/-18% YoY changes. In particular, optics segment reported narrowing loss in 2H23 due to improving ASP/margin and premium product ramp-up. Mgmt. stated that plastic lenses turned profitable in 1Q24 and guided a positive GPM in 2H24/FY24E. ED&PM delivered solid growth supported by further share gains for haptics/metal frames/foldable phone hinges. FY23 GPM came in at 16.9% with strong margin recovery in 2H23 across the segments, benefiting from demand recovery and product upgrades.
由於利潤率全面回升，23財年的收益超過了預期。按細分市場劃分，聲學/ED&PM/光學/微機電系統收入同比變動-15％/+13％/+13％/-18％。特別是，光學板塊報告稱，由於ASP/利潤率的提高和優質產品的增長，23年下半年的虧損有所收窄。管理總經理表示，塑料鏡片在24年第一季度實現了盈利，並在24財年下半年實現了正增長的GPM。在觸覺/金屬框架/可摺疊手機鉸鏈的進一步份額增長的支持下，ED&PM實現了穩健增長。受益於需求復甦和產品升級，23財年GPM達到16.9％，各細分市場的利潤率在23年下半年強勁回升。
FY24E outlook: optics margin improvement, ED&PM upgrade and PSS consolidation. For FY24E, mgmt. guided 10-15% YoY sales growth (+20- 30% YoY including PSS), driven by 1) optics margin to turn positive in 2H24/FY24E on better HCM GPM, ASP hikes and an improving scale; 2) accelerated growth in acoustics/haptics/casing/foldable phone hinges; 3) PSS consolidation to boost sales synergy in auto acoustics business. Overall, we estimate FY24E revenue/net profit to grow +30%/+82% YoY.
FY24E 展望：光學利潤率提高、ED&PM 升級和 PSS 整合。對於 FY24E，管理層預計銷售額同比增長10-15％（包括PSS，同比增長20-30％），這得益於1）由於HCM GPM的改善、ASP的提高和規模的擴大，光學利潤率在24財年下半年轉爲正數；2）聲學/觸覺/外殼/可摺疊手機鉸鏈加速增長；3) PSS 整合以增強汽車聲學業務的銷售協同效應。總體而言，我們估計 FY24E 收入/淨利潤將同比增長30％/+82％。
Recent rally reflected most positives; maintain HOLD on fair valuation. For FY24E, while we are positive on AAC's earnings recovery, we believe the recent rally has reflected its positives and its current valuation at 20.2x/16.2x FY24/25E P/E is fair. Maintain HOLD with a new SOTP-based TP of HK$22.44, implying 18.0x FY24E P/E. Near-term catalysts include key customer's new model launch and customer share gains.
最近的漲勢反映了大多數積極因素；維持公允估值不變。對於 FY24E，儘管我們對AAC的收益復甦持樂觀態度，但我們認爲最近的漲勢反映了其積極方面，其目前估值爲24/25財年市盈率爲20.2x/16.2倍是公平的。維持持有，基於SOTP的新目標價爲22.44港元，這意味着18.0倍的 FY24E 市盈率。短期催化劑包括主要客戶新車型的推出和客戶份額的增長。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。