CGN MINING(01164.HK):MINE PRODUCTION COST RISES; NATURAL URANIUM PRICE TO RALLY OVER THE LONG TERM
CGN MINING(01164.HK):MINE PRODUCTION COST RISES; NATURAL URANIUM PRICE TO RALLY OVER THE LONG TERM
2023 results miss our expectations
2023 年的業績未達到我們的預期
CGN Mining announced its 2023 results: Revenue rose 102% YoY to HK$7.36bn, and net profit attributable to shareholders decline 3.5% YoY to HK$497mn, implying EPS of HK$0.065 (-3.5% YoY), missing our expectations, mainly because Ortalyk, a joint venture with Kazatomprom, had yet to write back the fines, and mine production costs increased.
中廣核礦業公佈了其2023年業績：收入同比增長102％，至73.6億港元，股東應占淨利潤同比下降3.5％，至4.97億港元，這意味着每股收益爲0.065港元（同比下降3.5％），未達到我們的預期，主要是因爲與哈薩克斯坦原子工業股份公司的合資企業Ortalyk尚未註銷罰款，而且礦山生產成本增加。
The firm's attributable natural uranium output in 2023 rose 3% YoY to 1,277tU. Kazatomprom, with which CGN Ming holds two joint ventures (Ortalyk and Semizbay-U) lowered its 2024 output target to a mere 3% YoY increase due to supply shortage of sulfuric acid. The natural uranium mines in which the firm holds stakes in will continue to reduce production. Overall mine production costs trended up due to increase in salaries for Kazakhstan-based employees and raw material cost, and adjustment of underground resource use tax.
該公司2023年的可歸天然鈾產量同比增長3％，至1,277萬噸。由於硫酸供應短缺，中廣核明與其持有的兩家合資企業（Ortalyk和Semizbay-U）的哈薩克斯坦原子能工業股份公司將其2024年的產量目標下調至僅同比增長3％。該公司持有股份的天然鈾礦將繼續減少產量。由於哈薩克斯坦員工的工資和原材料成本的增加以及地下資源使用稅的調整，礦山的總體生產成本呈上升趨勢。
Semizbay-U: Actual natural uranium output was 976.8tU in 2023. Specifically, Semizbay Mine produced 407.4tU with production cost of US$27/lb, while Irkol Mine produced 569.4tU with production cost of US$23/lb. The production plan completion rate was 100.2%, indicating stable operations.
Semizbay-U：2023年天然鈾的實際產量爲976.8萬噸。具體而言，塞米茲貝礦產量爲407.4噸，生產成本爲27美元/磅，而伊爾科爾礦產量爲569.4噸，生產成本爲23美元/磅。生產計劃完成率爲100.2％，表明運營穩定。
Ortalyk: Actual natural uranium output in 2023 was 1,643.6tU. Specifically, Central Mynkuduk Mine produced 1,512.9tU production cost of US$17/lb, and Zhalpak produced 130.7tU with production cost of US$27/lb. The production plan completion rate was 97.2%, and it was mainly due to decline in supply of raw materials such as sulfuric acid from Kazakhstan.
奧塔利克：2023年天然鈾的實際產量爲1,643.6萬噸。具體而言，中央明庫杜克礦生產了1,512.9噸的生產成本，爲17美元/磅，扎爾帕克生產了130.7噸，生產成本爲27美元/磅，生產計劃完成率爲97.2％，這主要是由於哈薩克斯坦的硫酸等原材料供應減少。
Natural uranium trading: The volume of internal trading (which is based on the firm's off-take rights to products of uranium mines in which it invests) fell 1.7% YoY to 1,299tU, with ASP and selling cost reaching US$64.4/lb and US$64.9/lb. International trading volume rose 86% YoY to 5,670tU, with ASP and selling cost reaching US$49.6/lb and US$48.4/lb.
天然鈾交易：內部交易量（基於該公司對所投資鈾礦產品的承購權）同比下降1.7％，至1,299萬噸，ASP和銷售成本達到64.4美元/磅和64.9美元/磅。國際交易量同比增長86％，至5,670萬噸，ASP和銷售成本達到49.6美元/磅和48.4美元/磅。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Natural uranium prices to rally further over the medium and long term. Due to factors such as Cameco's production increase plan, the spot price of natural uranium retreated from its previous high of US$106/lb to US$88/lb on March 20. Despite the short-term correction, we believe the long-term uptrend in natural uranium prices remains intact, mainly considering: 1) Global nuclear power demand is set to rebound. As of end- 2023, the world had 372GW of installed nuclear power capacity in operation, and 58 nuclear power units under construction; 2) the world's largest natural uranium producer Kazatomprom has lowered production target for 2024 to 21,000-22,500tU due to shrinkage of sulfuric acid supply; and 3) the reserves of uranium mines in Kazakhstan are falling, and CGN Mining thinks the production cuts and decommissioning of in- operation uranium mines worldwide may peak in 2028.
從中長期來看，天然鈾價格將進一步上漲。由於Cameco的增產計劃等因素，天然鈾的現貨價格從之前的高點106美元/磅回落至3月20日的88美元/磅。儘管進行了短期調整，但我們認爲天然鈾價格的長期上漲趨勢仍然完好無損，這主要是考慮到：1) 全球核電需求將反彈。截至2023年底，全球有372吉瓦的核電裝機容量在運行，58個核電機組正在建設中；2）由於硫酸供應萎縮，全球最大的天然鈾生產商哈薩克斯坦原子工業股份公司已將2024年的產量目標下調至21,000-22,500噸；3）哈薩克斯坦的鈾礦儲量正在下降，中廣核礦業認爲減產和退役全球鈾礦行動可能在2028年達到頂峯。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
Given Kazatomprom's downward revision to its production plan for 2024, we trim our 2024 net profit forecast 10% to HK$878mn, and introduce 2025 net profit forecast of HK$1.09bn, implying 14.3x 2024e and 11.5x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and our target price, which implies 15.5x 2024e and 12.4x 2025e P/E, and 8% upside.
鑑於哈薩克斯坦原子工業股份公司下調了2024年的生產計劃，我們將2024年的淨利潤預期下調了10％，至8.78億港元，並公佈了2025年淨利潤10.9億港元的預測，這意味着2024年市盈率爲14.3倍，2025年市盈率爲11.5倍。我們維持跑贏大盤的評級和目標價格，這意味着2024年市盈率爲15.5倍，2025年市盈率爲12.4倍，上漲幅度爲8％。
Risks
風險
Fluctuations in natural uranium prices; disappointing expansion of global nuclear power capacity and/or uranium mine production.
天然鈾價格的波動；全球核電能力和/或鈾礦產量的增長令人失望。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。