CHINA RESOURCES BUILDING MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS(01313.HK):CEMENT BUSINESS UNDER PRESSURE;AGGREGATES TO SEE RAPID GROWTH
CHINA RESOURCES BUILDING MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS(01313.HK):CEMENT BUSINESS UNDER PRESSURE;AGGREGATES TO SEE RAPID GROWTH
2023 results in line with market consensus
2023 年業績符合市場共識
China Resources Building Materials Technology Holdings announced its 2023 results: Revenue fell 12.9% YoY to Rmb25.55bn, and attributable net profit dropped 60.1% YoY to Rmb644mn. The 2023 results are in line with market consensus.
華潤建材科技控股公佈了其2023年業績：收入同比下降12.9％至人民幣255.5億元，應占淨利潤同比下降60.1％，至人民幣6.44億元。2023年的業績符合市場共識。
The firm experienced a YoY decline in full-year sales volume, but the strategic adjustments made since 4Q23 have paid off. The company's cement and clinker sales volume fell 7.6% YoY to 69.3mnt in 2023, and the decline was sharper than the industry average. Sales volume for the Guangdong, Guangxi, and Fujian markets fell 1.5%, 16.0%, and 6.3% YoY, while that of Yunnan and Guizhou markets rose 1.3% and 2.1% YoY. However, the firm has adjusted its sales strategy since 4Q23. Per our estimates, its sales volume rose 11.6% YoY to about 21.96mnt in 4Q23, suggesting that its adjustment efforts have paid off.
該公司的全年銷售量同比下降，但自23年第四季度以來所做的戰略調整已獲得回報。2023年，該公司的水泥和熟料銷售量同比下降7.6％，至6930萬噸，下降幅度大於行業平均水平。廣東、廣西和福建市場的銷量同比下降1.5％、16.0％和6.3％，而云南和貴州市場的銷量同比增長1.3％和2.1％。但是，自23年第四季度以來，該公司已經調整了銷售策略。根據我們的估計，其銷售量在23年第四季度同比增長11.6％，達到約21.96萬億英鎊，這表明其調整努力已獲得回報。
Prices and gross profit per tonne are under pressure due to fierce price competition. In 2023, the ASP of the firm's cement and clinker was Rmb273/t (-Rmb35/t YoY). Its unit cost was Rmb239/t (-Rmb19/t YoY), and the gross profit per tonne was Rmb34/t (-Rmb16/t YoY). The falling costs failed to fully offset the impact of falling prices.
由於激烈的價格競爭，每噸的價格和毛利潤面臨壓力。2023年，該公司水泥和熟料的ASP爲273元人民幣/噸（同比下降35元/噸）。其單位成本爲人民幣239元/噸（同比-19元人民幣），每噸毛利爲人民幣34元/噸（同比-16元人民幣）。成本下降未能完全抵消價格下跌的影響。
Expenses per tonne rose YoY. We estimate the firm's cement and clinker expenses per tonne at about Rmb49 in 2023, up Rmb6 YoY.
每噸支出同比增長。我們估計，該公司2023年每噸水泥和熟料支出約爲49元人民幣，同比增長6元人民幣。
Production and sales volume of the aggregate business increased significantly, and its GM was stable. In 2023, the firm's aggregate sales volume rose 201.5% YoY to 45.58mnt, and its ASP dropped by Rmb2/t YoY to Rmb35/t. Its GM fell 1.1ppt YoY to 54.3%, largely stable.
總體業務的產量和銷售量大幅增長，其通用汽車保持穩定。2023年，該公司的總銷售量同比增長201.5％，至45.58萬億元，其ASP同比下降2元人民幣至35元人民幣。其通用汽車同比下降1.1個百分點至54.3％，基本穩定。
Operating cash flow improved despite headwinds, and capex fell markedly. In 2023, the firm's net operating cash flow rose 46.9% YoY to Rmb3.92bn, and its capex fell 53% YoY to Rmb5.21bn.
儘管存在不利因素，但運營現金流仍有所改善，資本支出明顯下降。2023年，該公司的淨運營現金流同比增長46.9％至39.2億元人民幣，資本支出同比下降53％，至52.1億元人民幣。
Healthy balance sheet; maintaining a high dividend payout ratio. By the end of 2023, the firm's net borrowing ratio rose 2ppt YoY to 30%, and long-term loans accounted for 85% of the total, largely stable. The firm declared a dividend of about HK$0.047/sh, implying a payout ratio of about 46%, remaining high.
健康的資產負債表；保持較高的股息支付率。到2023年底，該公司的淨借款比率同比增長2個百分點至30％，長期貸款佔總額的85％，基本穩定。該公司宣佈派發約0.047港元的股息，這意味着派息率約爲46％，仍然很高。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Aggregate business to grow rapidly, with higher profit contribution. By the end of 2023, the firm's aggregate production capacity was around 92.50mnt with a potential production capacity of nearly 150mnt. We expect its aggregate business to enter a period of rapid growth with rising output, sales, and profit contribution. In 2024, we expect the ASP and gross profit per tonne of aggregates to rise steadily, with the production capacity ramp-up at its bases in Guangdong with higher ASP.
聚合業務快速增長，利潤貢獻更高。到2023年底，該公司的總產能約爲92.50萬噸，潛在產能接近1.5億噸。我們預計，隨着產出、銷售和利潤貢獻的增加，其總體業務將進入快速增長時期。我們預計，2024年，ASP和每噸骨料的毛利潤將穩步增長，其廣東基地的產能將增加，ASP的增加。
Focusing on gaining market share and cost reduction; we expect the firm to strengthen its regional leadership. The company has proposed a strategy of winning market share, avoiding breaking the bottom line, optimizing product structure, and improving market position. The focus is on cost reduction and core competitiveness improvement along the value chain. We expect the company to cement its leading position in southern China in 2024.
專注於獲得市場份額和降低成本；我們預計該公司將加強其區域領導地位。該公司提出了一項贏得市場份額、避免突破底線、優化產品結構和提高市場地位的戰略。重點是降低成本和提高價值鏈中的核心競爭力。我們預計該公司將在2024年鞏固其在中國南方的領先地位。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
As cement prices in regional markets missed our expectations, we lower our 2024 attributable net profit forecast by 38% to Rmb676mn and introduce a 2025 attributable net profit forecast of Rmb804mn. The stock is trading at 12.0x 2024e and 9.7x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating. Given the company's leading position in the region is expected to be consolidated and its competitiveness is expected to increase, we only cut our target price 28% to HK$1.93, implying 17.7x 2024e and 14.3x 2025e P/E, offering 47% upside.
由於區域市場的水泥價格未達到我們的預期，我們將2024年的歸屬淨利潤預測下調了38％，至人民幣6.76億元，並公佈了2025年可歸淨利潤預測爲8.04億元人民幣。該股的市盈率爲2024年的12.0倍，2025年的市盈率爲9.7倍。我們維持跑贏大盤的評級。鑑於該公司在該地區的領先地位預計將得到鞏固，其競爭力預計將提高，我們僅將目標價格下調28％至1.93港元，這意味着2024年市盈率爲17.7倍，2025年市盈率爲14.3倍，上漲幅爲47％。
Risks
風險
Demand recovery disappoints; competition intensifies.
需求復甦令人失望；競爭加劇。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。