ANHUI CONCH CEMENT(600585):SALES VOLUME AND MARKET SHARE GROW DESPITE SECTOR HEADWINDS; STRONG CASH POSITION AND HIGH DIVIDENDS
ANHUI CONCH CEMENT(600585):SALES VOLUME AND MARKET SHARE GROW DESPITE SECTOR HEADWINDS; STRONG CASH POSITION AND HIGH DIVIDENDS
2023 results in line with our expectations
2023 年的業績符合我們的預期
Anhui Conch Cement (ACC) announced its 2023 results: Revenue rose 6.8% YoY to Rmb141bn, revenue from main businesses fell 16.7% YoY to Rmb86.4bn, and net profit attributable to shareholders declined 33.4% YoY to Rmb10.43bn. In 4Q23, revenue dropped 10.1% YoY to Rmb41.96bn and attributable net profit fell 45.8% YoY to Rmb1.76bn. The firm's 2023 results were in line with our expectations.
安徽海螺水泥（ACC）公佈了其2023年業績：收入同比增長6.8％，至人民幣1410億元，主營業務收入同比下降16.7％，至864億元人民幣，股東應占淨利潤同比下降33.4％，至104.3億元人民幣。在23年第四季度，收入同比下降10.1％，至人民幣419.6億元，應占淨利潤同比下降45.8％，至人民幣17.6億元。該公司2023年的業績符合我們的預期。
Full-year sales volume grew despite sector headwinds; costs fell, but prices and per-tonne earnings remained under pressure. In 2023, the firm's sales volume of self-produced cement and clinker rose 0.7% YoY to 285mnt, and its sales volume and market share rose despite output decline in the sector. The ASP of the firm's self-produced cement and clinker fell Rmb48 YoY or 15% to Rmb273. However, thanks to falling coal procurement costs, the firm's unit fuel and power costs of cement and clinker declined Rmb25 YoY, which partly offset the impact of falling sales prices. Full-year per-tonne gross profit of cement and clinker fell Rmb22 or 24% YoY to Rmb68. Prices and earnings per tonne remained under pressure amid falling sector demand and intensifying competition.
儘管存在行業不利因素，但全年銷量仍在增長；成本下降，但價格和每噸收益仍面臨壓力。2023年，該公司自產水泥和熟料的銷售量同比增長0.7％，至2.85億噸，儘管該行業產量下降，但其銷量和市場份額仍有所上升。該公司自產水泥和熟料的每股收益同比下降48元人民幣，跌幅15％，至273元人民幣。但是，由於煤炭採購成本下降，該公司的水泥和熟料的單位燃料和電力成本同比下降了25元人民幣，這部分抵消了銷售價格下跌的影響。水泥和熟料的全年每噸毛利同比下降22元人民幣或24％，至人民幣68元。在行業需求下降和競爭加劇的情況下，每噸的價格和收益仍然面臨壓力。
Operating cash flow strong; capex likely to decline. In 2023, the firm's net operating cash flow rose Rmb10.5bn YoY or 108% to about Rmb20.1bn, maintaining strong capabilities to collect sales proceeds despite sector headwinds. The firm's capex fell Rmb4.4bn YoY or 18% to Rmb19.5bn in 2023, and it guided capex at Rmb15.2bn in 2024, showing a further decline. We expect the firm's capex to gradually decline and its free cash flow to improve further, as investment in mining rights purchases and project construction has peaked.
運營現金流強勁；資本支出可能下降。2023年，該公司的淨運營現金流同比增長105億元人民幣，增長108％，達到約201億元人民幣，儘管存在行業不利因素，但仍保持了強大的銷售收益能力。2023年，該公司的資本支出同比下降44億元人民幣，跌幅18％，至人民幣195億元，2024年預計資本支出爲152億元人民幣，進一步下降。我們預計，隨着對採礦權購買和項目建設的投資達到頂峯，該公司的資本支出將逐漸下降，其自由現金流將進一步改善。
Dividend payout ratio rose steadily. The firm's cash dividend payout ratio in 2023 rose 1.74ppt YoY to 51.82%.
股息支付率穩步上升。該公司2023年的現金分紅派息率同比增長1.74個百分點至51.82％。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Organic adjustment in profit structure; profit contribution from new businesses such as aggregate steadily rising. In 2023, new businesses accounted for 20% of the firm's total profit, up 13ppt from 2022. The firm's sales volume of aggregate grew at a CAGR of 45.36% over 2019-2023. We estimate that the firm's sales volume of aggregates may have approached 100mnt in 2023, up more than 100% YoY. We are upbeat on the rising profit contribution from new businesses such as aggregates, which may help mitigate earnings fluctuations and provide sustained growth momentum amid profit pressure from the cement business.
利潤結構的有機調整；總額等新業務的利潤貢獻穩步上升。2023年，新業務佔公司總利潤的20％，比2022年增長13個百分點。與2019-2023年相比，該公司的總銷售量以45.36％的複合年增長率增長。我們估計，該公司的總銷售量在2023年可能已接近1億美元，同比增長100％以上。我們對骨料等新業務的利潤貢獻不斷增加持樂觀態度，這可能有助於緩解收益波動，並在水泥業務的盈利壓力下提供持續的增長動力。
Overseas expansion well on track with earnings continuing to grow. In 2023, the firm's overseas sales volume rose 14% YoY, per-tonne gross profit grew 16% YoY and operating profit of overseas projects doubled YoY. Its overseas earnings steadily improved, in our view.
海外擴張步入正軌，收益持續增長。2023年，該公司的海外銷售量同比增長14％，每噸毛利同比增長16％，海外項目的營業利潤同比增長一倍。我們認爲，其海外收益穩步增長。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
As downstream demand and cement prices are weaker than we expected, we lower our 2024 and 2025 attributable net profit forecasts 15.3% and 12.0% to Rmb9.5bn and Rmb10.2bn. A-shares are trading at 13x 2024e and 12x 2025e P/E, while H-shares are trading at 9x 2024e and 8x 2025e P/E. We maintain OUTPERFORM ratings for A- and H-shares, and only cut our target prices 9.4% and 8.9% to Rmb30 (17x 2024e and 16x 2025e P/E with 29% upside) and HK$24.6 (12x 2024e and 11x 2025e P/E with 43% upside).
由於下游需求和水泥價格低於我們的預期，我們將2024年和2025年的應占淨利潤預測下調了15.3％和12.0％，至95億元人民幣和102億元人民幣。A股的市盈率爲2024年的13倍和2025年的12倍，而H股的市盈率爲2024年的9倍和2025年的8倍。我們維持A股和H股的跑贏大盤評級，僅將目標價格下調9.4％和8.9％至30元人民幣（2024年17倍和2025年市盈率16倍，上行29％）和24.6港元（2024年的12倍）以及11倍的2025年市盈率，上漲幅度爲43％）。
Risks
風險
Demand recovery disappoints; price competition intensifies.
需求復甦令人失望；價格競爭加劇。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。