As you might know, FreightCar America, Inc. (NASDAQ:RAIL) last week released its latest full-year, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$358m missing analyst predictions by 2.3%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$1.18 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
NasdaqGS:RAIL Earnings and Revenue Growth March 21st 2024
After the latest results, the two analysts covering FreightCar America are now predicting revenues of US$499.0m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a major 39% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. FreightCar America is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.10 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$482.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.20 in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on FreightCar America after the latest results; even though they upped their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a large cut to per-share earnings expectations.
The consensus price target fell 5.9% to US$4.00, suggesting that the analysts are primarily focused on earnings as the driver of value for this business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that FreightCar America's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 39% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 10% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that FreightCar America is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for FreightCar America. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2025, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for FreightCar America that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
如您所知,FreightCar America, Inc.(纳斯达克股票代码:RAIL)上周发布了最新的全年业绩,但对股东来说,情况并不那么好。总体而言,这是一个相当负面的结果,3.58亿美元的收入比分析师的预测低2.3%。更糟糕的是,该企业报告的法定亏损为每股1.18美元,远高于分析师在业绩公布前的预测。对于投资者来说,盈利是一个重要时刻,因为他们可以追踪公司的业绩,查看分析师对明年的预测,看看对公司的情绪是否发生了变化。考虑到这一点,我们收集了最新的法定预测,以了解分析师对明年的预期。
纳斯达克GS:铁路收益和收入增长 2024年3月21日
根据最新业绩,两位报道美国货运汽车的分析师现在预测2024年的收入为4.99亿美元。如果得到满足,这将反映出收入与过去12个月相比增长了39%的显著增长。预计美国货运汽车也将实现盈利,法定每股收益为0.10美元。在本报告发布之前,分析师一直在模拟2024年的收入为4.823亿美元,每股收益(EPS)为0.20美元。因此,很明显,在最新业绩公布后,分析师对美国FreightCar America的看法不一;尽管他们提高了收入数字,但这是以大幅下调每股收益预期为代价的。
共识目标股价下跌5.9%,至4.00美元,这表明分析师主要关注收益作为该业务价值的驱动力。
现在从大局来看,我们理解这些预测的方法之一是看看它们与过去的表现和行业增长估计相比如何。从最新估计中可以明显看出,美国FreightCar America的增长率预计将大幅加速,预计到2024年底的年化收入增长率为39%,明显快于过去五年中每年10%的历史增长。相比之下,同行业的其他公司预计收入每年将增长3.4%。考虑到收入增长的预测,很明显,FreightCar America的增长速度预计将比其行业快得多。
底线
最大的担忧是,分析师下调了每股收益预期,这表明FreightCar America可能会面临业务不利因素。令人高兴的是,他们还上调了收入预期,并预测其增长速度将超过整个行业。此外,分析师还下调了目标股价,这表明最新消息加剧了人们对业务内在价值的悲观情绪。
考虑到这一点,我们仍然认为该业务的长期发展轨迹对于投资者来说更为重要。至少有一位分析师提供了到2025年的预测,可以在我们的平台上免费查看。
我们不想在游行队伍中下太多雨,但我们也确实找到了两个需要注意的FreightCar America警告标志。
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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。