CHINA RESOURCES POWER(836.HK):SOLID OPERATIONAL RESULTS AND AGGRESSIVE RENEWABLE EXPANSION
CHINA RESOURCES POWER(836.HK):SOLID OPERATIONAL RESULTS AND AGGRESSIVE RENEWABLE EXPANSION
CR Power's full-year results were largely in line with street expectations, and core net profit after excluding impairments was even stronger. We deem the weak response from the market in PM trading session yesterday was due to 1) expanding deficit of FCF on aggressive capex plan (+34% YoY to HK$60bn) and 2) recent strength rendering yield offering less attractive and hence profit taking on results. We are turning more positive on thermal dark spread outlook after management updated tariff signing status this year, and raise 2024-25E earnings by 15/12% respectively. Maintain BUY rating with a higher DCF-based TP of HK$22.00, implying 5.3% 2024 yield.
CR Power的全年業績基本符合華爾街的預期，扣除減值後的核心淨利潤甚至更高。我們認爲，昨天下午交易時段市場反應疲軟，這是由於1）激進的資本支出計劃導致FCF赤字擴大（同比增長34％，至600億港元）；2）近期的強勁使收益率產品的吸引力降低，因此業績獲利回吐。在管理層今年更新了資費簽署狀態並將2024-25年度的收益分別提高了15/ 12％之後，我們對熱黑利差前景變得更加樂觀。維持買入評級，以差價合約爲基礎的更高目標價爲22.00港元，這意味着2024年的收益率爲5.3％。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Results review. Net profit of HK$11.0bn was in the middle range of market expectations of HK$10-12bn and up 56% YoY. After excluding impairments and FX impacts, core net profit reached HK$13.3bn, up 120% YoY. The company announced a final dividend of HK$0.587/share, maintaining annual regular payout ratio at 40% (a special dividend of HK$0.5/share was declared and distributed in 4Q23 to celebrate the 20th anniversary of listing). The management indicates it will maintain a minimum payout ratio of 40% and regularly review its dividend policy.
結果審查。淨利潤爲110億港元，處於市場預期的100億至120億港元的中間區間，同比增長56％。扣除減值和外匯影響後，核心淨利潤達到133億港元，同比增長120％。該公司宣佈派發末期股息爲每股0.587港元，將年度定期派息率維持在40％（爲慶祝上市20週年，於23年第四季度宣佈並分配了每股0.5港元的特別股息）。管理層表示將維持40％的最低派息率，並定期審查其股息政策。
Surging capex. CRP announced a total capex of HK$59.9bn for 2024, +34% YoY. Most of the incremental capex will go to renewable projects, which would consume HK$44.6bn capex this year, +40% YoY. The company has a total of 13.3GW of wind and solar projects under construction by end-2023, of which 10GW is expected to be commissioned this year. We expect CRP's adjusted net gearing to exceed 200% this year for the first time in its history, but thanks to in-time transition to onshore borrowing (93.7% of total debt by end-2023), the company's finance expenses and leverage remain controllable (average borrowing even dropped slightly YoY in 2023), in our view.
資本支出激增。CRP宣佈2024年的總資本支出爲599億港元，同比增長34％。大部分增量資本支出將用於可再生能源項目，今年將消耗446億港元的資本支出，同比增長40％。到2023年底，該公司共有13.3吉瓦的風能和太陽能項目在建，其中10吉瓦預計將於今年投產。我們預計CRP今年調整後的淨資產負債率將有史以來首次超過200％，但我們認爲，由於及時過渡到在岸借款（到2023年底佔總債務的93.7％），該公司的財務支出和槓桿率仍可控制（2023年平均借款甚至同比略有下降）。
Thermal business update. During post-results briefing, management shared that the average thermal tariff signed for 2024 is 18.5% above benchmark tariff (including capacity tariff of c.RMB25/MWh), which we believe should help to dissipate the fears from lacklustre tariff in Guangdong province (almost flat with benchmark). The unit fuel cost is also expected to decline 3-5% YoY, with 1H cost lower than 2H, according to the management. That leaves the company's dark spread at the hopes of a slight YoY improvement, which is a solid support to its earnings visibility, in our view.
散熱業務最新情況。在業績發佈會上，管理層分享說，2024年簽署的平均熱電費比基準電價（包括約人民幣25元/兆瓦時的運力電價）高出18.5％，我們認爲這將有助於消除對廣東省電價乏善可陳的擔憂（與基準幾乎持平）。管理層稱，單位燃料成本預計也將同比下降3-5％，上半年成本低於下半年。我們認爲，這使該公司的利差不多，希望同比略有改善，這爲其盈利知名度提供了堅實的支撐。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Higher-than-expected fuel cost; unexpected impairment losses.
高於預期的燃料成本；意外的減值損失。
Valuation
估價
Maintain BUY rating. We lift our 2024-25 earnings forecasts by 15/12% respectively mainly on higher thermal tariff assumptions. CRP is trading at 6.6% 2024 yield on our estimates, which still offers decent upside, in our view.
維持買入評級。我們將2024-25年的收益預測分別上調了15/ 12％，這主要是基於更高的熱電費率假設。根據我們的估計，2024年CRP的收益率爲6.6％，在我們看來，這仍然提供了不錯的上行空間。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。