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Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. Just Reported A Surprise Loss: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. Just Reported A Surprise Loss: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

山东民和牧业有限公司刚刚公布意外亏损:以下是分析师认为接下来会发生的事情
Simply Wall St ·  03/21 06:50

It's been a good week for Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002234) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 4.2% to CN¥10.93. It looks like a pretty bad result, given that revenues fell 13% short of analyst estimates at CN¥2.1b, and the company reported a statutory loss of CN¥1.11 per share instead of the profit that the analysts had been forecasting. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

对于山东民和畜牧股份有限公司(SZSE:002234)的股东来说,这是美好的一周,因为该公司刚刚发布了最新的年度业绩,股价上涨了4.2%,至10.93元人民币。这似乎是一个相当糟糕的结果,因为收入比分析师预期的21亿元人民币下降了13%,而且该公司报告的法定亏损为每股1.11元人民币,而不是分析师预测的利润。分析师通常会在每份收益报告中更新他们的预测,我们可以从他们的估计中判断他们对公司的看法是否发生了变化,或者是否有任何新的问题需要注意。因此,我们收集了最新的财报后法定共识估计,以了解明年可能会发生什么。

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SZSE:002234 Earnings and Revenue Growth March 20th 2024
SZSE: 002234 2024 年 3 月 20 日收益和收入增长

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry from two analysts is for revenues of CN¥3.03b in 2024. If met, it would imply a sizeable 46% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of CN¥0.86 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥3.11b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.88 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

考虑到最新业绩,两位分析师对山东民和畜牧业的最新共识是,2024年的收入为30.3亿元人民币。如果得到满足,这意味着其收入在过去12个月中将大幅增长46%。预计山东民和牧业也将实现盈利,每股法定收益为0.86元人民币。然而,在最新财报公布之前,分析师曾预计2024年的收入为31.1亿元人民币,每股收益(EPS)为1.88元人民币。由此我们可以看出,在最新业绩公布之后,市场情绪肯定变得更加悲观了,这导致收入预期降低,每股收益预期大幅下调。

The consensus price target fell 30% to CN¥12.39, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates.

共识目标股价下跌30%,至12.39元人民币,疲软的盈利前景显然领先于估值预期。

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 46% annualised growth until the end of 2024. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 8.8% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 13% annually. So it looks like Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

从现在的大局来看,我们可以理解这些预测的方法之一是看看它们如何与过去的业绩和行业增长预期相比较。从这些估计中可以看出一件事,那就是预计山东民和牧业未来的增长速度将比过去更快,预计到2024年底,收入将实现46%的年化增长。如果实现,这将比过去五年8.8%的年下降幅度好得多。相比之下,分析师对整个行业的估计表明,(总计)行业收入预计每年将增长13%。因此,看来山东民和牧业的增长速度将超过其竞争对手,至少在一段时间内是如此。

The Bottom Line

底线

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

最大的担忧是,分析师下调了每股收益的预期,这表明山东民和牧业可能会面临业务不利因素。遗憾的是,他们还下调了收入预期,但最新的预测仍然表明该业务的增长速度将超过整个行业。此外,分析师还下调了目标股价,这表明最新消息加剧了人们对业务内在价值的悲观情绪。

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

考虑到这一点,我们不会很快就山东民和牧业得出结论。长期盈利能力比明年的利润重要得多。至少有一位分析师提供了到2026年的预测,可以在我们的平台上免费查看。

You can also view our analysis of Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry's balance sheet, and whether we think Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

您还可以在我们的平台上免费查看我们对山东民和牧业资产负债表的分析,以及我们是否认为山东民和牧业背负了过多的债务。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的这篇文章本质上是笼统的。我们仅使用公正的方法根据历史数据和分析师的预测提供评论,我们的文章无意作为财务建议。它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的建议,也没有考虑到您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供由基本数据驱动的长期重点分析。请注意,我们的分析可能不考虑最新的价格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。简而言之,华尔街没有持有任何上述股票的头寸。

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