TOWNGAS SMART ENERGY(1083.HK):2023 EARNINGS IN LINE; EXPECT STRONG CORE EARNINGS GROWTH IN 2024
TOWNGAS SMART ENERGY(1083.HK):2023 EARNINGS IN LINE; EXPECT STRONG CORE EARNINGS GROWTH IN 2024
The net profit of Towngas Smart Energy (TGSE) surged 63% YoY to HK$1,575m in 2023, 3% below our forecast. Its core earnings grew 16% YoY mainly because its renewable business swung from loss to profit. Looking ahead, we expect its core earnings to surge 39% YoY in 2024 as we expect rapid growth from its renewable business after breaking even. We reiterate our BUY call given its depressed valuation. We increase our target price to HK$4.10.
2023年，煤氣智慧能源（TGSE）的淨利潤同比增長63％，至15.75億港元，比我們的預測低3％。其核心收益同比增長16％，主要是因爲其可再生能源業務從虧損轉爲盈利。展望未來，我們預計其核心收益將在2024年同比增長39％，因爲我們預計其可再生能源業務在實現收支平衡後將快速增長。鑑於估值低迷，我們重申買入呼籲。我們將目標價上調至4.10港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
TGSE's core earnings grew 16% YoY to HK$1,190m in 2023. The growth primarily came from the renewable business which recovered from a net loss of HK$119m in 2022 to a net profit of HK$78m in 2023 as power generation jumped 6x YoY to 0.94bn kWh as more projects came on stream. For the gas business, core net profit was flat at HK$1,841m. The benefit of 8% YoY growth in gas sales volume and RMB0.01/m3 YoY improvement in dollar margin was offset by depreciation of RMB. The profit in RMB terms actually grew 5% YoY.
2023年，TGSE的核心收益同比增長16％，達到11.9億港元。增長主要來自可再生能源業務，該業務從2022年的1.19億港元淨虧損恢復到2023年的7800萬港元淨利潤，因爲隨着更多項目的上線，發電量同比增長了6倍，達到9.4億千瓦時。天然氣業務的核心淨利潤持平至18.41億港元。天然氣銷售量同比增長8％和美元利潤率同比增長0.01元/立方米的好處被人民幣貶值所抵消。以人民幣計算的利潤實際上同比增長了5％。
For 2024, we expect its core earnings to surge 39% YoY mainly on the rapid growth of its renewable business. The company plans to increase its on-grid distributed photovoltaic generation capacity by 1GW to 2.8GW by the end of the year and the power generation to double to 1.9bn kWh. More importantly, the company plans to introduce investors as partners of its renewable business. This will help to finance further investment in this business and reduce the burden on its balance sheet.
我們預計2024年的核心收益將同比增長39％，這主要是由於其可再生能源業務的快速增長。該公司計劃到年底將其併網分佈式光伏發電容量增加1吉瓦至2.8吉瓦，發電量翻一番，達到19億千瓦時。更重要的是，該公司計劃引入投資者作爲其可再生能源業務的合作伙伴。這將有助於爲該業務的進一步投資提供資金，並減輕其資產負債表上的負擔。
For the gas business, the company guides 8% YoY growth in gas sales volume in 2024, higher than our original forecast of 6% YoY growth. The decent growth will mainly come from industrial clients as the company secured a few new big industrial clients. Nevertheless, the company may have to make concession in terms of pricing and hence it guides for flat dollar margin in 2024.
在天然氣業務方面，該公司預計2024年天然氣銷售量將同比增長8％，高於我們最初預測的同比增長6％。可觀的增長將主要來自工業客戶，因爲該公司獲得了一些新的大型工業客戶。儘管如此，該公司可能必須在定價方面做出讓步，因此它指導2024年美元利潤率保持不變。
The company's shares are trading at 6x 2024E P/E, the lowest among its peers. Key Risks for Rating
該公司的股票市盈率爲2024年的6倍，是同行中最低的。評級的主要風險
Execution risk of its renewable business.
其可再生業務的執行風險。
Faster-than-expected fall in new connections.
新連接的下降速度快於預期。
Valuation
估價
Although we trim our 2024/25 earnings forecasts by 7%, we increase our DCF valuation from HK$4.00 to HK$4.10 as we roll over our base year from 2023 to 2024. This means we are one year closer to the end of high capex period for its renewable business. In addition, the impact of small cuts in earnings is not that much on free cashflow.
儘管我們將2024/25年的收益預期下調了7％，但隨着基準年從2023年延期至2024年，我們將差價合約估值從4.00港元提高至4.10港元。這意味着我們距離其可再生能源業務的高資本支出期的結束又近一年。此外，小幅削減收益對自由現金流的影響並不大。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。