CR BLDG MATERIALS TECH(1313.HK):PLUNGING 2023 EARNINGS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE; EXPECT FLAT EARNINGS FOR 2024
CR BLDG MATERIALS TECH(1313.HK):PLUNGING 2023 EARNINGS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE; EXPECT FLAT EARNINGS FOR 2024
The net profit of CR Bldg Materials Tech plummeted 60% YoY to RMB644m in 2023, close to the high-end of its earnings warning (down 58-67% YoY). The sharp fall in earnings was due to the decline in both unit gross profit and sales volume for its cement business. For 2024, we now expect to see flat earnings as the strong growth in aggregate business should be offset by further earnings decline at its cement business. We cut our 2024/25 earnings forecasts by 38%/32%. We reiterate our HOLD call and lower our target price to HK$1.51.
2023年，華潤建材科技的淨利潤同比暴跌60％，至人民幣6.44億元，接近其業績警告的高端（同比下降58-67％）。收益的急劇下降是由於其水泥業務的單位毛利潤和銷售量均有所下降。我們現在預計2024年的收益將持平，因爲總業務的強勁增長應被其水泥業務收益的進一步下降所抵消。我們將2024/25年的收益預測下調了38％/32％。我們重申持有看漲期權，並將目標價下調至1.51港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
In 2023, the company's sales volume of cement, clinker and concrete dropped 7% YoY, 12% YoY and 14% YoY respectively. More importantly, owing to the depressed cement prices, the unit gross profit of cement and clinker fell 33% YoY to RMB32/tonne. In particular, the gross profit further dropped to RMB15/tonne in 4Q23 as the company prioritized market share in that quarter.
2023年，該公司的水泥、熟料和混凝土的銷量分別同比下降7％，同比下降12％和14％。更重要的是，由於水泥價格低迷，水泥和熟料的單位毛利同比下降33％，至每噸32元人民幣。特別是，由於該公司在該季度優先考慮市場份額，毛利在23年第四季度進一步下降至人民幣15元/噸。
Looking into 2024, we expect the sales volume of its aggregate business to jump 76% YoY to 80m tonnes as more projects start to contribute. In particular, the 30m tpa project at Fengkai will show full-year contribution after starting production in mid-2023. The increase in sales of higher priced products in Guangdong Province should also result in 13% YoY increase in ASP. On the whole, we expect the gross profit of its aggregate business to surge 82% YoY to RMB1.6bn in 2024.
展望2024年，隨着更多項目開始做出貢獻，我們預計，其總業務的銷售量將同比增長76％，達到8000萬噸。特別是，豐開的年產3000萬噸項目將在2023年年中投產後顯示全年貢獻。廣東省高價產品的銷售增長也將使ASP同比增長13％。總體而言，我們預計其總業務的毛利將在2024年同比增長82％至16億元人民幣。
However, the company has continued to prioritise market share for its cement business so far this year. Although we expect its unit gross profit to rise on lower coal prices, it will improve from the very low base in 4Q23. For the full-year, the gross profit of its cement business should further drop 32% YoY to RMB22/tonne in 2024. Hence, we expect the gross profit of its cement business to drop 29% YoY to RMB1.58bn in 2024.
但是，今年到目前爲止，該公司繼續優先考慮其水泥業務的市場份額。儘管我們預計其單位毛利將因煤炭價格下跌而增加，但它將從23年第四季度的極低基數有所改善。全年，其水泥業務的毛利將同比進一步下降32％，至2024年人民幣22元/噸。因此，我們預計其水泥業務的毛利將在2024年同比下降29％至15.8億元人民幣。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Significant recovery of the profitability of the cement / clinker business.
水泥/熟料業務的盈利能力大幅恢復。
Lower-than-expected costs.
成本低於預期。
Valuation
估價
We cut our target price from HK$2.02 to HK$1.51. Our target price is the average of 8x 2024E P/E (rolled over from 2023) and 0.32x 2024E P/B (down from 0.41x 2023E). The target P/B is lowered because of the company's lower ROE (from 1.9% for 2023E to 1.5% for 2024E). Our target price is equal to 14.9x 2024E P/E.
我們將目標價格從2.02港元下調至1.51港元。我們的目標價格是2024年的平均市盈率的8倍（自2023年起展開）和0.32倍的2024年市盈率（低於2023年市盈率的0.4倍）。目標市盈率之所以下調，是因爲該公司的投資回報率較低（從2023年度的1.9％降至2024年的1.5％）。我們的目標價格等於2024年的14.9倍市盈率。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。