CHINA TOWER(00788.HK):STEADY FY23 EARNINGS GROWTH; END OF DEPRECIATION PERIOD TO PROVIDE SPACE FOR DIVIDEND INCREASE "BUY"
CHINA TOWER(00788.HK):STEADY FY23 EARNINGS GROWTH; END OF DEPRECIATION PERIOD TO PROVIDE SPACE FOR DIVIDEND INCREASE "BUY"
We maintain China Tower's (the "Company") TP at HK$1.20 and the investment rating as "Buy". We forecast FY24-FY26 EPS to be RMB0.065/ RMB0.076/ RMB0.124, respectively. As the depreciation of a large number of towers will expire in 4Q25, which will provide ample room for profit release, we expect the dividend level to rise significantly in 2026; thus, we maintain the investment rating as "Buy" and TP at HK$1.20. Our TP corresponds to 16.9x/ 14.3x/ 8.8x FY24-FY26 PER, representing 4.1%/ 5.0%/ 8.1% dividend yield in FY24-FY26.
我們將中國鐵塔（“公司”）的目標價維持在1.20港元，投資評級維持爲 “買入”。我們預測，FY24-FY26 每股收益將分別爲人民幣0.065元/人民幣0.076元/人民幣0.124元。由於大量塔樓的折舊將在25年第四季度到期，這將爲利潤釋放提供充足的空間，我們預計2026年的股息水平將大幅上升；因此，我們將投資評級維持在 “買入”，目標價爲1.20港元。我們的目標股息相當於16.9x/ 14.3x/ 8.8倍的 FY24-FY26 市盈率，相當於 FY24-FY26 的4.1％/5.0％/8.1％的股息收益率。
Despite impact from the new service framework agreements, China Tower still recorded a steady earnings growth in FY23. Due to discounts on existing orders and rising co-location discount rate on new orders, revenue of tower business declined by 2.8% in 2023. However, despite the impact from new agreements, shareholders' net profit still grew by 11.0% yoy to RMB9,750 million in 2023. Going into 2024, the yoy impact of the new agreement on the discount rate of the tower business will disappear, plus the three major operators are expected to maintain moderate 5G base station construction, the tower business revenue is expected to improve slightly yoy.
儘管受到新服務框架協議的影響，但中國鐵塔在23財年仍保持穩定的收益增長。由於現有訂單的折扣和新訂單的託管折扣率上升，塔樓業務的收入在2023年下降了2.8％。但是，儘管受到新協議的影響，股東的淨利潤仍同比增長11.0％，至2023年的人民幣97.5億元。進入2024年，新協議對塔樓業務折扣率的同比影響將消失，加上三大運營商預計將保持適度的5G基站建設，塔樓業務收入預計將同比略有改善。
Depreciation on the existing tower assets acquired in 2015 will expire by 4Q25, which will provide strong drive for the profit growth in 2026. In Oct. 2015, the Company acquired assets of about RMB203.5 billion from the three major telecom operators, and approximately half of them are tower assets which have a deprecation period of 10 years (these towers can still be used normally, but require repair and maintenance expenditure), while China Tower's self-built tower have a deprecation period of 20 years. In 4Q25, deprecation on these existing tower assets with a 10-year deprecation period will expire, while China Tower uses the straight-line method for deprecation. The deduction in depreciation expense is expected to be far higher than the required repair and maintenance expenditure. Therefore, we expect a significant increase in shareholders' net profit in 2026.
2015年收購的現有塔樓資產的折舊將在25年第四季度到期，這將爲2026年的利潤增長提供強勁的動力。2015年10月，公司從三大電信運營商手中收購了約2035億元人民幣的資產，其中約一半是折舊期爲10年的塔樓資產（這些塔樓仍可正常使用，但需要維修和維護支出），而中國鐵塔的自建塔樓的棄用期爲20年。在25年第四季度，這些折舊期爲10年的現有塔樓資產的棄用將到期，而中國鐵塔則使用直線法進行棄用。折舊費用的扣除額預計將遠高於所需的維修和保養支出。因此，我們預計2026年股東的淨利潤將大幅增加。
We expect the dividend payout in 2026 and afterwards to exceed market expectations. The Company's dividend level is basically linked to the shareholders' net profit in the year, and due to our forecast of an explosive shareholders' net profit growth in 2026, coupled with the solid cash flow in the future, we believe the Company will maintain its high dividend payout ratio. As a result, we believe dividend payout in 2026 and beyond will exceed market expectations.
我們預計，2026年及以後的股息支付將超過市場預期。該公司的股息水平基本上與股東當年的淨利潤掛鉤，由於我們預測2026年股東淨利潤將呈爆炸性增長，再加上未來穩健的現金流，我們認爲公司將保持其高股息支付率。因此，我們認爲2026年及以後的股息支付將超出市場預期。
Catalysts: Rising dividend payout; faster-than-expected growth of "Two Wings" business.
催化劑：股息支出增加；“兩翼” 業務增長快於預期。
Risks: Slower-than-expected growth of "Two Wings" business; slower-than-expected 5G construction; the management may choose to lower dividend payout ratio in 2026
風險：“兩翼” 業務增長低於預期；5G建設低於預期；管理層可能選擇在2026年降低股息支付率
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。