WESTERN MINING(601168):CONTINUING TO INCREASE RESERVES AND OUTPUT;WATCH HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT IN 2024
WESTERN MINING(601168):CONTINUING TO INCREASE RESERVES AND OUTPUT;WATCH HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT IN 2024
2023 earnings slightly miss our expectation
2023 年的收益略低于我们的预期
Western Mining announced that in 2023, revenue increased by 7.5% YoY to Rmb42.7bn; net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 19.1% YoY to Rmb2.79bn; and recurring net profit fell 21.7% YoY to Rmb2.56bn. In 4Q23, revenue declined by 17.8% YoY to Rmb10.5bn (+10.1% QoQ); and attributable net profit fell 43.8% YoY to Rmb592mn (-14.4% QoQ). Earnings in 2023 slightly missed our expectation, as the firm incurred Rmb375mn in loss on the disposable of non-current assets due to the demolition of the old beneficiation plants in its retrofitting and capacity expansion projects.
西部矿业宣布，2023年，收入同比增长7.5％，至人民币427亿元；股东应占净利润同比下降19.1％，至27.9亿元人民币；经常性净利润同比下降21.7％，至25.6亿元人民币。在23年第四季度，收入同比下降17.8％至人民币105亿元（环比增长10.1％）；应占净利润同比下降43.8％，至人民币5.92亿元（环比下降14.4％）。2023年的收益略低于我们的预期，因为由于拆除改造和产能扩张项目中的旧选矿厂，该公司的非流动资产处置蒙受了人民币3.75亿元的损失。
Production volume of lead and zinc increased rapidly and exceeded the planned production volume in 2023, offsetting the impacts of lower copper concentrate output and lower prices of lithium carbonate and zinc. The company announced that in 2023, the production volume of lead and zinc concentrates reached around 60,339t (+17% YoY) and 120,305t (+7% YoY), with the production plan completion ratios at 107% and 103%1; and the production volume of copper concentrates came in at around 131,298t (-9% YoY), with the production plan completion ratio at 99%. The actual production volume of copper concentrates was slightly lower than the planned production volume, as the demolition of the old factories in its Yulong beneficiation plant retrofitting projects weighed on production.
铅锌的产量迅速增长，并超过了2023年的计划产量，抵消了铜精矿产量下降以及碳酸锂和锌价格下跌的影响。该公司宣布，2023年，铅锌精矿的产量达到约60,339吨（同比增长17％）和120,305吨（同比增长7％），生产计划完成率分别为107％和103％1；铜精矿的产量约为131,298吨（同比下降9％），生产计划完成率为99％。铜精矿的实际产量略低于计划产量，原因是拆除玉龙选矿厂改造项目中的旧工厂打压了生产。
Data from iFinD shows that prices of battery-grade lithium carbonate and zinc dropped by 46% and 14% YoY in 2023, weighing on the firm's investment income from Dongtai Lithium Resources and GM of zinc products. In 2023, the company's net investment income declined by 50% YoY; and GM of zinc products fell 8.25ppt YoY, according to corporate filings.
iFind的数据显示，电池级碳酸锂和锌的价格在2023年同比下降了46％和14％，这打压了该公司从东泰锂资源和锌产品总经理那里获得的投资收入。公司文件显示，2023年，该公司的净投资收入同比下降了50％；锌产品通用汽车同比下降了8.25个百分点。
In addition, the firm's non-operating expenses increased by around Rmb375mn YoY to Rmb388mn in 2023.
此外，该公司的非营业支出同比增长约3.75亿元人民币，至2023年的人民币3.88亿元。
Trends to watch
值得关注的趋势
Planned production volume of copper and molybdenum for 2024 is higher than those for 2023, thanks to the Yulong retrofitting projects; beneficiation plant retrofitting projects weigh on planned production volume of lead and zinc. The company expects to produce around 158,715t of copper concentrates (+21% YoY) and 3,995t of molybdenum concentrates (+17% YoY) in 2024, according to its production plan. We estimate its attributable production volume of copper concentrates at about 99,106t (+20% YoY); and production volume of lead and zinc at around 51,777t (-14% YoY) and 109,407t (-10% YoY).
得益于裕隆改造项目，2024年的铜和钼的计划产量高于2023年的计划产量；选矿厂改造项目打压了铅锌的计划产量。根据其生产计划，该公司预计2024年将生产约158,715吨铜精矿（同比增长21％）和3,995吨钼精矿（同比增长17％）。我们估计其铜精矿的应占产量约为99,106吨（同比增长20％）；铅锌的产量约为51,777吨（同比下降14％）和109,407吨（同比下降10％）。
Continuing to explore mining resources and improve smelter management strategy; attaching importance to shareholder returns; we see high-quality development and management in 2024.
继续开采矿业资源并改善冶炼厂管理战略；重视股东回报；我们预计2024年将实现高质量的发展和管理。
In 2023, the company increased the production volume of existing projects, acquired new mines, and improved smelting technologies. Western Mining may continue to acquire high-quality mining resources in Qinghai and other provinces, increase efforts to explore mining resources in deep areas and on the periphery of mines, and encourage lean management in smelters, in its efforts to become a first-class mining company..
2023 年，该公司增加了现有项目的产量，收购了新的矿山，改进了熔炼技术。西部矿业可能会继续在青海和其他省份收购高质量的矿业资源，加大对深部地区和矿山外围矿业资源的勘探力度，鼓励冶炼厂精益管理，努力成为一流的矿业公司。
Management has attached importance to reasonable shareholder returns and the continuity and stability in profit distribution. In 2023, the cash dividend ratio reached 43%; and the company published the shareholder return plan for the coming three years.
管理层重视合理的股东回报以及利润分配的连续性和稳定性。2023年，现金分红率达到43％；公司发布了未来三年的股东回报计划。
Mr. ZHONG Yongsheng took office as the new chairman in October 2023. Corporate governance continues to improve. The company will likely achieve high-quality development and improve corporate management this year, in our view.
钟永生先生于2023年10月就任新任董事长。公司治理继续改善。我们认为，该公司今年可能会实现高质量发展并改善公司管理。
Financials and valuation
财务和估值
We maintain our earnings forecasts. The stock is trading at 12.2x 2024e and 11.8x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating, but lift our target price 36.8% YoY to Rmb24.26, given its sizable growth potential amid its sustained efforts to explore mining resources, improved corporate management, and visible increases in copper prices in the medium and long term. Our TP implies 15.1x 2024e and 14.5x 2025e P/E, offering 23.3% upside.
我们维持盈利预测。该股2024年的交易价格为12.2倍，市盈率为2025年的11.8倍。我们维持跑赢大盘的评级，但将目标股价同比上调36.8％至24.26元人民币，这是因为它在持续努力开采矿业资源、改善企业管理以及铜价在中长期明显上涨的情况下具有可观的增长潜力。我们的目标股价意味着2024年的市盈率为15.5倍，2025年市盈率为14.5倍，上涨幅度为23.3％。
Risks
风险
Metal prices decline; production volume of main metal products at the company and/or progress in its products disappoints.
金属价格下跌；公司主要金属产品的产量和/或其产品的进展令人失望。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。