GUANGDONG PROVINCIAL EXPRESSWAY DEV'T(000429):2023 RESULTS IN LINE WITH OUR EXPECTATIONS;DIVIDEND TO STAY AT 70% OF ATTRIBUTABLE NET PROFIT
GUANGDONG PROVINCIAL EXPRESSWAY DEV'T(000429):2023 RESULTS IN LINE WITH OUR EXPECTATIONS;DIVIDEND TO STAY AT 70% OF ATTRIBUTABLE NET PROFIT
2023 results in line with our expectations
2023 年的業績符合我們的預期
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development announced its 2023 results: Revenue rose 17.0% YoY (adjusted) to Rmb4.88bn; attributable net profit grew 28.0% YoY (adjusted) to Rmb1.63bn, in line with the preannouncement and our expectations; recurring net profit attributable to shareholders grew 30.1% YoY to Rmb1.71bn (adjusted), and the firm's non-recurring gains and losses included about Rmb123mn of credit impairment provision made on the management and maintenance expenses of Guangzhou-Foshan Expressway.
廣東省高速公路發展公佈了2023年業績：收入同比增長17.0％（調整後）至人民幣48.8億元；應占淨利潤同比增長28.0％，至16.3億元人民幣，符合預先公告和我們的預期；歸屬於股東的經常性淨利潤同比增長30.1％，至人民幣17.1億元（調整後），公司的非經常性損益包括約1.23億元人民幣的信用減值準備金廣佛高速公路的管理和維護費用。
In 4Q23, revenue rose 35.3% YoY to Rmb1.19bn, and attributable net profit grew 225.2% YoY to Rmb278mn.
在23年第四季度，收入同比增長35.3％至11.9億元人民幣，應占淨利潤同比增長225.2％，至人民幣2.78億元。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
The firm's toll revenue recovered thanks to a significant rebound in household travel. The firm's toll revenue rose 17.5% YoY to Rmb4.81bn in 2023 or fell 7.0% from 2021 due to the expiry of Guangzhou-Foshan Expressway. Excluding this, toll revenue would grow 1.9% from 2021. Specifically, toll revenue from Foshan-Kaiping Expressway, Guangzhu section of Jingzhu Expressway, and Guangzhou-Huizhou Expressway rose 17.4%, 28.2%, and 16.5% YoY in 2023 and 4.6%, 1.4%, and 0.3% from 2021.
由於家庭旅行的大幅反彈，該公司的通行費收入有所恢復。由於廣佛高速公路的到期，該公司的通行費收入在2023年同比增長17.5％，至人民幣48.1億元，較2021年下降7.0％。除此之外，通行費收入將從2021年起增長1.9％。具體而言，佛山至開平高速公路、京珠高速公路廣珠段和廣惠高速公路的通行費收入在2023年同比增長了17.4％、28.2％和16.5％，比2021年增長了4.6％、1.4％和0.3％。
Traffic volume to maintain solid growth thanks to favorable locations of road assets. According to the Department of Transport of Guangdong Province, the traffic volume in Guangdong province rose 6% YoY during the 2024 Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, with the total traffic volume of expressways in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area rising 5.4% YoY.
得益於道路資產的優越位置，交通量將保持穩步增長。根據廣東省交通運輸廳的數據，在2024年農曆新年（CNY）假期期間，廣東省的交通量同比增長6％，粵港澳大灣區高速公路的總交通量同比增長5.4％。
We think the firm's road assets have favorable locations. In the near term, we expect the boom in passenger transport to continue and freight traffic to improve marginally. In the medium and long term, Guangzhu section of Jingzhu Expressway, a major road asset of which the firm is a controlling stakeholder, is undergoing renovation and expansion. We believe that its improved traffic capacity after the renovation and expansion will boost its profitability, and the firm may extend the toll collection period, which could support its long-term growth.
我們認爲該公司的道路資產地理位置優越。在短期內，我們預計客運的繁榮將繼續，貨運量將略有改善。從中長期來看，京珠高速公路廣州段正在進行翻新和擴建，該公司是其主要道路資產，該公司是其控股股東。我們認爲，改造和擴建後其交通能力的改善將提高其盈利能力，該公司可能會延長收費期，這可能會支持其長期增長。
The high dividend payout ratio continues; the firm has long-term investment value. The firm announced its 2024-2026 shareholder return plan, which includes an annual cash dividend of no less than 70% of attributable net profit. As its high dividend policy continues, the firm has become one of the listed toll road companies with the highest dividend payout ratio.
高股息支付率仍在繼續；該公司具有長期投資價值。該公司宣佈了其2024-2026年的股東回報計劃，其中包括不少於應占淨利潤70％的年度現金分紅。隨着其高股息政策的繼續，該公司已成爲股息支付率最高的收費公路上市公司之一。
In the past, steady earnings growth and high dividends supported the firm's absolute returns, and its cumulative return (including dividends) has reached 112% since 2016 (as of March 15, 2024), offering significant long- term investment value. According to our calculation, the current price implies a dividend yield of 6.1% in 2024 and 6.3% in 2025, which is still attractive.
過去，穩定的收益增長和高股息支撐了公司的絕對回報，自2016年以來（截至2024年3月15日），其累計回報率（包括股息）已達到112％，提供了可觀的長期投資價值。根據我們的計算，當前的價格意味着2024年的股息收益率爲6.1％，2025年爲6.3％，這仍然具有吸引力。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We keep our 2024 earnings forecast unchanged and introduce 2025 earnings forecast of Rmb1.82bn. The A-share stock is trading at 11.4x 2024e and 11.1x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating. Given our valuation rollover to 2024 and the firm's high and visible dividends, we raise our target price 15.0% to Rmb11.04 (13.0x 2024e P/E), offering 14.3% upside.
我們維持2024年的收益預測不變，並推出了2025年18.2億元人民幣的收益預測。A股股票的交易價格爲2024年的11.4倍，2025年市盈率爲11.1倍。我們維持跑贏大盤的評級。鑑於我們的估值延期至2024年，以及該公司的高額可見股息，我們將目標價格上調了15.0％至11.04元人民幣（2024年市盈率爲13.0倍），上漲幅爲14.3％。
Risks
風險
Disappointing economic growth; sharper-than-expected traffic diversion.
經濟增長令人失望；交通分流超出預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。