QuantaSing Group Limited (QSG.US): Largest Online Adult Learning Provider in China, Initiate with a Buy-Venture Rating.
QuantaSing Group Limited (QSG.US): Largest Online Adult Learning Provider in China, Initiate with a Buy-Venture Rating.
該研報為獨立文件:
QSG is China’s largest online adult learning market provider by revenue. The adult learning market in China has proliferated, benefitting from increasing disposable incomes and strong demand for personal
development and lifelong learning. QSG is well positioned to capitalize on this growing market. We initiate with a Buy-Venture rating and a U.S.$9.50 price target.
Investment Thesis
➢ QSG is ranked as China’s largest online adult learning market provider by revenue. The success of QSG is underpinned by its easy to use, affordable, and accessible portfolio of online learning courses.
➢ QSG’s innovative learning approach, coupled with a robust technology infrastructure, has resulted in strong growth in its user base. The total number of registered users on the platform has consistently grown over the last eight quarters. The registered users increased from 68.1 million in Q1:23 to 103.3 million in Q1:24.
➢ QSG is diversifying into the other personal interest learning market, away from the historically strong financial literacy courses. This movement should boost growth as the other personal interest learning market is growing faster than the financial literacy market.
➢ Frost & Sullivan projects the adult learning market in China to reach over RMB1 trillion by 2027, growing at a CAGR of 12.6% during 2023-2027. We expect QSG to grow faster than the industry, underpinned by dedicated sales and marketing efforts.
➢ We are impressed by its strong balance sheet with no debt and cash balance (incl. short term investments) of RMB879.8 million (US$123.6 million). We anticipate QSG to be free cash flow positive, providing ample flexibility to pursue growth opportunities.
➢ We initiate coverage with a Buy-Venture rating and target price of U.S.$9.50, implying a capital appreciation potential of 170%.
Primary Risks
➢ The Company’s business is highly dependent on its ability to attract and retain learners and convert them into paid users. Failure to attract learners to pay for the courses could adversely impact the profitability of the business.
按收入計算,QSG是中國最大的在線成人學習市場提供商。受益於可支配收入的增加和對個人的強勁需求,中國的成人學習市場激增
發展和終身學習。QSG完全有能力利用這個不斷增長的市場。我們從買入風險投資評級開始,目標股價爲9.50美元。
投資論文
➢ 按收入計算,QSG被評爲中國最大的在線成人學習市場提供商。QSG的成功取決於其易於使用、價格合理且易於訪問的在線學習課程組合。
➢ QSG的創新學習方法,加上強大的技術基礎架構,使其用戶群強勁增長。在過去的八個季度中,該平台上的註冊用戶總數持續增長。註冊用戶從第 1:23 季度的6,810萬增加到第 1:24 季度的1.033億。
➢ 除了歷史上強大的金融知識課程,QSG正在多元化進入其他個人興趣學習市場。這一運動應該會促進增長,因爲其他個人興趣學習市場的增長速度快於金融知識市場。
➢ 弗若斯特沙利文預計,到2027年,中國的成人學習市場將達到人民幣1萬億元以上,在2023-2027年將以12.6%的複合年增長率增長。我們預計,在專門的銷售和營銷努力的支持下,QSG的增長速度將超過該行業。
➢ 其強勁的資產負債表給我們留下了深刻的印象,沒有債務,現金餘額(包括短期投資)爲人民幣8.798億元(1.236億美元)。我們預計QSG的自由現金流將爲正值,爲追求增長機會提供充足的靈活性。
➢ 我們以買入風險投資的評級和9.50美元的目標價格啓動保險,這意味着資本增值潛力爲170%。
主要風險
➢ 公司的業務高度依賴於其吸引和留住學習者並將他們轉化爲付費用戶的能力。未能吸引學員支付課程費用可能會對企業的盈利能力產生不利影響。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
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