HORIZON CD(9930.HK):2023 EARNINGS IN LINE; 15% SHARE PRICE PULLBACK LOOKS OVERDONE
HORIZON CD(9930.HK):2023 EARNINGS IN LINE; 15% SHARE PRICE PULLBACK LOOKS OVERDONE
Horizon CD's core net profit in 2023 grew 10% YoY to RMB1bn, in line with our expectation. While the lack of dividend payout is disappointing given that positive free cash flow is achieved, we believe the 15% share price pullback yesterday was overdone. We revise down our 2024E-25E earnings forecast by 6-7%, as (1) we lower our operating lease service revenue given less capex will be spent on equipment, (2) we revise down the rental rate given the continuous downtrend. These two factors could be slightly offset by the positive impact from the lower depreciation expense after the change in accounting policy starting this year. On the valuation front, we no longer apply 13x target P/E as it's less likely to be reached after the recent removal from the Stock Connect. Our new TP of HK$3.7 is based on 9x 2024E P/E, which is 10% discount to the current P/E of Huatie (603300 CH, NR). Horizon CD is trading at only 3x 2024E P/E, suggesting that the market is giving almost no value to any potential earnings growth.
Horizon CD在2023年的核心淨利潤同比增長10％，達到10億元人民幣，符合我們的預期。儘管鑑於實現了正的自由現金流，股息支付不足令人失望，但我們認爲昨天15％的股價回調過頭了。我們將2024E-25E的收益預測下調了6-7％，因爲（1）鑑於設備上的資本支出減少，我們降低了運營租賃服務收入；（2）鑑於持續下降趨勢，我們下調了租金。今年開始會計政策變更後，折舊費用下降的積極影響可能會略微抵消這兩個因素。在估值方面，我們不再採用13倍的目標市盈率，因爲在最近退出股票互聯互通之後，實現目標市盈率的可能性較小。我們的新目標股價爲3.7港元，以2024年的9倍市盈率爲基礎，比華鐵股份（603300瑞士，NR）當前市盈率的10％折扣。Horizon CD的市盈率僅爲2024年的3倍，這表明市場對任何潛在的收益增長几乎沒有任何價值。
Key highlights in 2023 results: Total revenue grew 22% YoY to
2023年業績的主要亮點：總收入同比增長22％
RMB9.6bn. Gross margin contracted 0.7ppt YoY to 39.1%, as platform & engineering business (lower margin) grew faster than operating lease services. Selling & distribution expense ratio increased 1.2ppt YoY to 5.4%. For the sake of prudence, Horizon increased the net expected credit loss (ECL) ratio by 1.5ppt YoY to 2.9%. Excluding the listing expense as well as the interest expense & FX change from the redemption liabilities on pre-IPO investment, core net profit grew 10% YoY to RMB1.04bn. Operating cash inflow increased 40% YoY to RMB3.95bn. With net capex of only ~RMB1.8bn, Horizon achieved free cash flow of RMB2.1bn. Net debt to equity ratio dropped to 147% at end 2023 (vs 286% in Dec 2022).
96億元人民幣。由於平台和工程業務（利潤率較低）的增長速度快於經營租賃服務，毛利率同比收縮0.7個百分點至39.1％。銷售和分銷費用比率同比增長1.2個百分點至5.4％。爲謹慎起見，Horizon將淨預期信用損失（ECL）比率同比提高1.5個百分點至2.9％。不包括上市費用以及首次公開募股前投資的利息支出和贖回負債的外匯變動，核心淨利潤同比增長10％至10.4億元人民幣。運營現金流同比增長40％，達到39.5億元人民幣。Horizon的淨資本支出僅爲約18億元人民幣，實現了21億元人民幣的自由現金流。淨負債與權益比率在2023年底下降至147％（而2022年12月爲286％）。
Operating lease services (53.5% of revenue). The segment revenue dropped 1% YoY to RMB5.1bn in 2023 (-9% YoY in 2H23), as the decrease in rental rates offset the increase in the overall utilisation rate. As at end 2023, Horizon had 494 service outlets (4 overseas) and 232k customers (+47% YoY).
經營租賃服務（佔收入的53.5％）。該分部收入同比下降1％，至2023年人民幣51億元（23年下半年同比下降9％），原因是租金的下降抵消了整體利用率的增長。截至2023年底，Horizon擁有494個服務網點（4個海外）和23.2萬名客戶（同比增長47％）。
Engineering & technical services (30.8% of revenue). The segment revenue grew 39% YoY to RMB2.9bn in 2023 (accelerated in 2H23), with gross margin reduced by 0.8ppt YoY to 29.2%.
工程和技術服務（佔收入的30.8％）。該分部收入在2023年同比增長39％至29億元人民幣（在23年下半年有所加速），毛利率同比下降0.8個百分點至29.2％。
Platform & other services (15.7% of revenue). The segment revenue surged 1.7x YoY to RMB1.5bn in 2023. Breakdown: (1) Platform service revenue surged 3x YoY to RMB984mn, driven by the adoption of asset-light model for AWP business. The managed fleet size of AWP grew >1.6x YoY to 56.7k units. (2) Trade and others revenue grew 72% YoY to RMB522mn. The segment gross margin expanded 8.7ppt to 40.2%.
平台和其他服務（收入的15.7％）。2023年，該細分市場的收入同比增長了17倍至15億元人民幣。細分：（1）受AWP業務採用輕資產模式的推動，平台服務收入同比增長3倍，至人民幣9.84億元。AWP的託管機隊規模同比增長超過1.6倍，達到5.67萬輛。（2）貿易和其他收入同比增長72％，達到人民幣5.22億元。該細分市場的毛利率增長了8.7個百分點至40.2％。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。