INTRON TECH(1760.HK)FY23E PREVIEW:INDUSTRY HEADWINDS MOSTLY PRICED IN; AWAITING RECOVERY IN FY24E
INTRON TECH(1760.HK)FY23E PREVIEW:INDUSTRY HEADWINDS MOSTLY PRICED IN; AWAITING RECOVERY IN FY24E
Intron Tech will announce its FY23 results next week. We estimate FY23E revenue of RMB 5.76bn (+19% YoY) and net income of RMB 319mn (-23% YoY), mainly due to pricing pressure from downstream OEM, weaker cloud server, higher R&D expenses and interest costs. Looking ahead, while we think industry headwinds will remain in 1H24E given downstream OEMs' price pressure, we are positive on Intron's share gain on industry leadership and secular trends of automotive electrification and intelligence. We adjusted FY23- 25E EPS to factor in slower sales growth and higher R&D/interest expenses. Trading at 6.3x/4.1x FY23/24E P/E (1-sd below 5-year avg.), we think risk- reward is attractive compared to A/H peers. Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$ 6.10 on rollover 12x FY24E P/E. Upcoming catalysts include 2024 guidance, rising ADAS penetration and easing NEV price pressure.
英恒科技將在下週公佈其23財年業績。我們估計，FY23E 收入爲人民幣57.6億元（同比增長19％），淨收入爲3.19億元人民幣（同比下降23％），這主要是由於來自下游OEM的定價壓力、雲服務器的疲軟、研發費用和利息成本的增加。展望未來，儘管鑑於下游 OEM 的價格壓力，我們認爲 1H24E 仍將出現行業不利因素，但我們對英創在行業領導地位以及汽車電氣化和智能化的長期趨勢方面的份額增長持樂觀態度。我們調整了23-25財年的每股收益，以考慮銷售增長放緩和研發/利息支出增加。我們認爲，與A/H同行相比，風險回報具有吸引力，交易價格爲23/24財年市盈率6.3倍/4.1倍（比5年平均水平低1倍）。FY24E 市盈率翻轉12倍，新目標價爲6.10港元，維持買入。即將到來的催化劑包括2024年指引、ADAS滲透率上升和新能源汽車價格壓力緩解。
FY23E preview: slower growth amid challenging market. We estimate FY23E revenue of RMB 5.76bn (+19% YoY) and net income of RMB 319mn (-23% YoY). By segment, we expect revenue from new energy/ body control/ safety/ powertrain/ automation & connectivity to deliver 34%/ 3.5%/ 29.9%/ 1.9%/ 57.1% growth YoY; while cloud server declined 53.9% YoY, given continued NEV growth, ADAS penetration and new product ramp-up, offset by cloud server weakness and downstream OEMs price pressure. We expect FY23E GPM to trend down to 19.0% (vs. FY22/1H23 GPM 21.5%/20.6%), and we expect 1H24 GPM to remain sluggish given intensified downstream OEMs price competition at the start of the year.
FY23E 預覽：在充滿挑戰的市場中增長放緩。我們估計，FY23E 收入爲人民幣57.6億元（同比增長19％），淨收入爲3.19億元人民幣（同比下降23％）。按細分市場劃分，我們預計新能源/車身控制/安全/動力總成/自動化和連接的收入將同比增長34％/3.5％/29.9％/1.9％/57.1％；而云服務器同比下降53.9％，原因是新能源汽車持續增長、ADAS滲透率和新產品的提高，但被雲服務器的疲軟和下游原始設備製造商的價格壓力所抵消。我們預計，FY23E GPM將下降至19.0％（相比之下，2023財年上半年的GPM爲21.5％/20.6％），鑑於下游汽車製造商在年初價格競爭加劇，我們預計24上半年的GPM將保持低迷。
FY24E outlook: ADAS segment as next growth driver, outperforming peers despite mixed industry outlook. We expect Intron's sales to outgrow NEV industry given its leading market position, new product ramp- up and solid client base. With cost-plus pricing strategy and economies of scale of R&D investments, we believe Intron is well-positioned to outperform peers with further share gain in the auto electronics industry. Overall, we estimate revenue/net profit to recover with 20%/52% YoY growth in FY24E.
FY24E 展望：ADAS細分市場是下一個增長動力，儘管行業前景喜憂參半，但表現仍優於同行。鑑於其領先的市場地位、新產品的增長和穩固的客戶群，我們預計 Intron 的銷售增長將超過新能源汽車行業。憑藉成本加成的定價策略和研發投資的規模經濟，我們認爲Intron完全有能力在汽車電子行業進一步增加份額，跑贏同行。總體而言，我們估計，FY24E 的收入/淨利潤將恢復，同比增長20％/52％。
Near-term concerns mostly priced in; attractive risk/reward with good dividend yield. We trimmed FY23-25E EPS by 15-37% mainly to factor in slower business growth and ongoing margin pressure. Our new TP of HK$6.10 is based on rolled-over same 12x FY24E P/E (24% below 5-year hist. avg.). Trading at 6.3x/4.1x FY23/24E P/E, significantly lower than 1-sd below 5-year avg., we think risk-reward is attractive with a dividend yield of 7%. Maintain BUY.
短期擔憂主要反映在：誘人的風險/回報和良好的股息收益率。我們將FY23-25E 每股收益削減了15-37％，這主要是考慮到業務增長放緩和持續的利潤壓力。我們的新目標價爲6.10港元，是基於滾動後的12倍 FY24E 市盈率（比5年曆史平均水平低24％）計算。23/24財年市盈率爲6.3x/4.1倍，明顯低於5年平均水平的1天，我們認爲風險回報具有吸引力，股息收益率爲7％。維持買入。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。