JD LOGISTICS(02618.HK):4Q23 PROFIT BEAT; PROFIT MARGIN INCREASES NOTABLY
JD LOGISTICS(02618.HK):4Q23 PROFIT BEAT; PROFIT MARGIN INCREASES NOTABLY
4Q23 profit beat our forecast and market expectations
23 年第 4 季度的利潤超出了我們的預測和市場預期
JD Logistics announced its 4Q23 results: Revenue rose 9.7% YoY to Rmb47.20bn, slightly beating our expectations. Non-IFRS net profit rose 79.6% YoY to Rmb1.80bn and profit margin equaled 3.8%, the highest quarterly profit since the firm's IPO. In 2023, the firm's non-IFRS net profit rose 218.8% YoY to Rmb2.76bn and profit margin reached 1.7%, beating our forecasts and market expectations, mainly due to better-than-expected cost reduction and efficiency enhancement.
京東物流公佈了其23年第四季度業績：收入同比增長9.7％，至472.0億元人民幣，略高於我們的預期。非國際財務報告準則淨利潤同比增長79.6％，至人民幣18.0億元，利潤率等於3.8％，這是該公司首次公開募股以來的最高季度利潤。2023年，該公司的非國際財務報告準則淨利潤同比增長218.8％，至27.6億元人民幣，利潤率達到1.7％，超出了我們的預測和市場預期，這主要是由於成本降低和效率提高好於預期。
4Q23 revenue breakdown:
23 年第四季度收入明細：
The firm's revenue from integrated supply chain customers rose 8.8% YoY to Rmb23.01bn, with revenue from JD.com Inc growing 11.3% YoY to Rmb14.37bn, mainly driven by a marked increase in retail order volume driven by improved services on JD.com's retail platform.
該公司來自綜合供應鏈客戶的收入同比增長8.8％，至230.1億元人民幣，其中京東公司的收入同比增長11.3％，達到143.7億元人民幣，這主要是由京東零售平台服務改善推動的零售訂單量顯著增長所推動的。
Revenue from external customers rose 5.0% YoY to around Rmb8.64bn, and average revenue per customer grew 15.4% YoY to about Rmb155,900. We attribute the sound results to the firm's focus on providing high-quality integrated supply chain services to strengthen target customer stickiness.
來自外部客戶的收入同比增長5.0％，達到約86.4億元人民幣，每位客戶的平均收入同比增長15.4％，達到約15.59萬元人民幣。我們將良好的業績歸因於該公司專注於提供高質量的綜合供應鏈服務，以增強目標客戶的粘性。
Revenue from other clients (including Deppon Group) grew 10.6% YoY to Rmb24.19bn, mainly due to parcel volume growth driven by improved delivery network efficiency and enhanced customer experience. Overall, the firm's external revenue accounted for 69.5% of its total revenue in 3Q23 (down 0.4ppt YoY) and 70.0% in 2023 (up 5.1ppt YoY).
來自其他客戶（包括德邦集團）的收入同比增長10.6％，達到241.9億元人民幣，這主要是由於交付網絡效率提高和客戶體驗增強推動的包裹量增長。總體而言，該公司的外部收入佔其23年第三季度總收入的69.5％（同比下降0.4個百分點），2023年佔70.0％（同比增長5.1個百分點）。
4Q23 cost breakdown: Operating costs rose 20.5% YoY and GM increased 0.3ppt YoY to 9.2%. Excluding the impact from the consolidation of Deppon's financial statements, we think there were three factors contributing to the growth. First, the firm generated economies of scale as it expanded business. Second, its gross profit improved as the proportion of small parcels increased under the new free shipping policy (Rmb59 threshold for ordinary users). Third, the firm's efficiency improved driven by organizational restructuring, cost reduction and efficiency enhancement.
23年第四季度成本明細：運營成本同比增長20.5％，通用汽車同比增長0.3個百分點至9.2％。不包括德邦財務報表合併的影響，我們認爲有三個因素促成了增長。首先，該公司在擴大業務時創造了規模經濟。其次，在新的免費送貨政策（普通用戶門檻爲59元人民幣）下，隨着小包裹比例的增加，其毛利潤有所提高。第三，在組織重組、成本降低和效率提高的推動下，公司的效率得到提高。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
In 2024, we expect the firm's profit margin to stay high driven by improving core express delivery and express delivery services. We think the new free shipping policy may continue to boost the firm's order growth. We expect its revenue growth momentum from JD.com Inc and third-party merchants may remain intact. In addition, we anticipate that the number of external integrated supply chain customers and average revenue per order will likely resume sound growth in 2024.
我們預計，在覈心快遞和快遞服務的改善的推動下，公司的利潤率將在2024年保持較高水平。我們認爲，新的免費送貨政策可能會繼續促進公司的訂單增長。我們預計，京東公司和第三方商家的收入增長勢頭可能保持不變。此外，我們預計，外部綜合供應鏈客戶的數量和每筆訂單的平均收入可能會在2024年恢復穩健增長。
We also foresee growth in revenue contribution of external customers, given the firm's adjustment to its organizational structure, cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, improving profit margin of express delivery business under Deppon's express delivery network, and the firm's synergy with JD Airlines. We expect its non-IFRS profit margin to stay above 1.5% in 2024.
鑑於公司調整組織結構、降低成本和提高效率、提高德邦快遞網絡下快遞業務的利潤率以及公司與京東航空的協同效應，我們還預計，外部客戶的收入貢獻將增長。我們預計其非國際財務報告準則的利潤率將在2024年保持在1.5％以上。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
Considering that recovery of orders from external customers remain uncertain, we lower our 2024 revenue forecast 3.1% to Rmb179.64bn. Considering the profit margin improvement, we keep our 2024 earnings forecast largely unchanged, and introduce a 2025 non-IFRS net profit forecast of Rmb4.57bn. The stock is trading at 16.9x 2024e and 10.1x 2025e non-IFRS P/E. Given falling average sector valuation, we cut our target price 29% to HK$11.0, implying 22.8x 2024e and 13.6x 2025e non- IFRS P/E, offering 34.1% upside. We maintain OUTPERFORM.
考慮到外部客戶訂單的恢復仍不確定，我們將2024年的收入預測下調了3.1％，至1796.4億元人民幣。考慮到利潤率的提高，我們維持2024年的收益預測基本不變，並推出了2025年非國際財務報告準則淨利潤預測爲45.7億元人民幣。該股的交易價格爲2024年的16.9倍，非國際財務報告準則市盈率爲10.1倍。鑑於行業平均估值的下降，我們將目標股價下調29％至11.0港元，這意味着2024年的市盈率爲22.8倍，非國際財務報告準則市盈率爲13.6倍，上漲幅爲34.1％。我們保持跑贏大盤。
Risks
風險
Disappointing logistics demand; surging costs.
物流需求令人失望；成本飆升。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。