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When does a 'wall of worry' become a 'wall of fear' for stock-market investors?

When does a 'wall of worry' become a 'wall of fear' for stock-market investors?

「令人擔憂的牆」何時成為股市投資者的「恐懼牆」?
道琼斯 ·  2019/09/28 05:08

MW When does a 'wall of worry' become a 'wall of fear' for stock-market investors?

對股市投資者來説,“擔憂之牆”什麼時候會變成“恐懼之牆”?

By Mark DeCambre, MarketWatch

作者:Mark DeCambre,MarketWatch

Stock-market investors have managed to scale 'walls of worry' in years past but for how much longer ?

過去幾年,股市投資者成功翻越了“擔憂之牆”,但這種情況還能持續多久呢?

The pathway forward for Wall Street and the value of risky assets is becoming more perilous.

華爾街和風險資產價值的前進道路正變得更加危險。

What began arguably with a momentary pivot in investor appetite from "growth" stocks -- those stocks with a propensity to rise steadily based on growing sales and profitability - toward those viewed as undervalued by some metric, has morphed into something seemingly more lasting and more reflective of a market that is struggling to scale its latest wall of worry.

可以説,最初投資者的胃口一度從“成長型”股票轉向那些被某些指標視為估值過低的股票,而現在,投資者的胃口似乎更持久,也更能反映出市場正在艱難地攀登其最新的擔憂之牆。

It is a market that is increasingly sensitive to geopolitical developments, for example the Trump impeachment enquiry begun this week, as well as a litany of other technological and sectoral risks that could prove too much for a sluggish economy and a listless stock market.

這是一個對地緣政治事態發展越來越敏感的市場,比如本週開始的特朗普彈劾調查,以及一系列其他技術和行業風險,事實可能證明,對於低迷的經濟和低迷的股市來説,這些風險太多了。

Take Netflix Inc. (NFLX), the video-streaming service that has been a darling among investors, but lately has seen its shares lose more than 10% in September and turn negative for 2019 as competition in the sector has increased. That marks the worst performance by a wide margin this month and year among the so-called FAANG stocks, which also include Facebook Inc. (FB), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) Apple Inc. (AAPL), and Google-parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)(GOOGL).

以網飛公司(Youku)為例,這家視頻流媒體服務公司一直是投資者的寵兒,但最近其股價在9月份下跌了10%以上,隨着該行業競爭的加劇,其股價在2019年轉為負值。這標誌着本月和今年一汽集團股票中表現最差的一隻股票,其中還包括Facebook、亞馬遜、蘋果和谷歌母公司Alphabet。

Growth stocks like Netflix, and the wider FAANG complex, have been in a nearly uninterrupted bullish trend for the past decade. A rotation, however, appears to be at hand, with measures of growth stock performance this month trailing value strategies handily. The Russell 1000 Growth is down 0.9% so far in September, compared with a Russell 1000 Value Index that has climbed almost 3%, marking the first time value has outperformed growth for the month since June, according to FactSet data.

過去10年,Netflix等成長型股票以及更廣泛的FAANG建築羣一直處於幾乎不間斷的看漲趨勢。然而,一種輪換似乎迫在眉睫,本月成長型股票表現的指標輕鬆落後於價值策略。FactSet的數據顯示,9月份到目前為止,羅素1000指數的增長率下降了0.9%,相比之下,羅素1000價值指數上漲了近3%,這是自6月份以來羅素1000價值指數首次超過增長。

Read:Value rotation signals a rebound in global economic growth, not a recession, analysts say (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/value-rotation-signals-a-rebound-in-global-economic-growth-not-a-recession-analysts-say-2019-09-18)

閲讀:分析師表示,價值輪換標誌着全球經濟增長的反彈,而不是衰退

The shift toward value stocks, however fleeting it may be, has come as bond yields have been worryingly low for a stock market that isn't far from all-time highs. The 10-year Treasury yields 1.678% late Friday in New York, while the 2-year Treasury note was at 1.626%, marking the second straight weekly slide for U.S. Treasury yields and the sharpest two-week skid since the period ended Aug. 16, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Pundits have suggested that investors are turning to assets that offer safer returns during times of economic stress.

轉向價值型股票之際,債券收益率一直處於令人擔憂的低水平,而股市距離歷史高點不遠。上週五紐約尾盤,10年期美國國債收益率為1.678%,而2年期美國國債收益率為1.626%。道瓊斯市場數據顯示,這是美國國債收益率連續第二週下滑,也是自去年8月16日以來跌幅最大的兩週。專家們表示,投資者正轉向在經濟壓力時期提供更安全回報的資產。

Beyond tectonic moves in the value-growth narrative, the once-highflying market for initial public offerings has appeared to come off the rails, with Peloton Interactive Inc. on Thursday putting in the second-worst initial decline of any IPO that has raised at least $500 million this year, according to Dealogic data. Poor debuts for IPOs have often presaged, or been indicative of, more worrisome developments in the market.

除了價值增長方面的結構性變動外,一度高歌猛進的首次公開募股(IPO)市場似乎已經脱軌,據Dealogic的數據,peloton Interactive週四的首次公開募股(IPO)首日跌幅在今年籌資至少5億美元的IPO中排名第二。IPO首日表現不佳,往往預示着或預示着市場上更令人擔憂的發展。

Peloton's woeful debut came as work-space sharing company We Co. pulled its plans to list its stock on a public exchange and Endeavor Group Holdings Inc. postponed its planned offering (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/endeavor-reportedly-pulling-its-ipo-after-peloton-struggles-2019-09-26) also after Peloton's woes.

佩洛頓上市首日表現糟糕之際,辦公空間共享公司We Co.取消了在公開交易所上市的計劃,奮進集團控股有限公司(Endeavor Group Holdings Inc.)也在佩洛頓陷入困境後推遲了(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/endeavor-reportedly-pulling-its-ipo-after-peloton-struggles-2019-09-26)的上市計劃。

A popular way to measure IPO performance, the Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO) is down 6.9% this week, marking its worst weekly decline since the week ended Dec. 21, 2018. It's also the worst monthly decline, down 8.7%, for the exchange-traded product since December, according to FactSet data.

衡量IPO表現的流行指標--復興IPO ETF(IPO)本週下跌6.9%,創下2018年12月21日止當週以來最大單週跌幅。根據FactSet的數據,這也是該交易所交易產品自去年12月以來的最大月度跌幅,跌幅為8.7%。

However, it's worth noting that the Renaissance ETF is still up nearly 20.2% so far this year, outstripping the year-to-date gains for the Nasdaq Composite Index , the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average

然而,值得注意的是,文藝復興ETF今年迄今仍上漲了近20.2%,超過了納斯達克綜合指數、標準普爾500指數和道瓊斯工業平均指數今年迄今的漲幅

WeWork-parent We Co.'s IPO postponement has been driven by investors pushing back against companies with high valuations in the private markets despite heavy losses or meager profits.

WeWork的母公司We Co.推遲IPO的原因是,儘管虧損嚴重或利潤微薄,但投資者抵制在非公開市場上估值較高的公司。

Read: IPO market has begun pushing back on growth-at-all-costs private companies (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ipo-investors-are-pushing-back-on-growth-at-all-costs-private-companies-2019-09-26)

閲讀:首次公開募股市場已開始打擊不惜一切代價實現增長的私營公司(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ipo-investors-are-pushing-back-on-growth-at-all-costs-private-companies-2019-09-26)

Valuations may also come into focus when investors consider third quarter earnings from American corporations in October which may underscore the issue of an earnings recession (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-sp-500-is-in-its-first-earnings-recession-in-three-years-2019-09-18).

當投資者考慮10月份美國公司第三季度收益時,估值也可能成為關注的焦點,這可能突顯收益衰退的問題(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-sp-500-is-in-its-first-earnings-recession-in-three-years-2019-09-18).

The market overall has been stuttering for the past year, with the Dow gaining a meager 1.4% over the 12 months, the S&P 500 up 1.6% and the Nasdaq, weighed down by many of those growth names, down 1.3% over the same period.

過去一年,中國股市整體走勢蹣跚,道瓊斯工業平均指數在過去12個月裏微幅上漲1.4%,標準普爾500指數上漲1.6%,而受許多成長型股票拖累的納斯達克指數同期下跌1.3%。

It isn't clear that the market has any real impetus to cruise much higher in the next three months.

目前還不清楚市場是否有任何真正的動力在未來三個月大幅走高。

The U.S - China trade dispute and the wider geopolitical challenge posed by China's growing economic, technological and military power may present the biggest hurdle for the market's ascent.

美國和中國之間的貿易爭端,以及中國日益增長的經濟、技術和軍事實力帶來的更廣泛的地緣政治挑戰,可能是股市上漲的最大障礙。

For example, for the second week in a row, a trade war related headline capsized a Friday climb for the main U.S. equity benchmarks. This week, it was reports that the White House is weighing limiting investment in China (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-hits-session-low-amid-report-that-white-house-weighing-limit-on-us-investments-in-china-2019-09-27). Last Friday, markets headed down hill on reports that a China delegation canceled a trip to Montana farms (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-skids-to-friday-lows-amid-reports-that-chinas-delegation-has-canceled-a-tariff-related-visit-2019-09-20).

例如,連續第二週,一篇與貿易戰相關的新聞標題推翻了美國主要股指週五的漲勢。本週,有報道稱,白宮正在考慮限制對中國(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-hits-session-low-amid-report-that-white-house-weighing-limit-on-us-investments-in-china-2019-09-27).的投資上週五,市場下跌,因為有報道稱,中國代表團取消了前往蒙大拿州農場(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-skids-to-friday-lows-amid-reports-that-chinas-delegation-has-canceled-a-tariff-related-visit-2019-09-20).的行程。

On top of all that, a raging impeachment inquiry against President Trump, centered on allegations that the 45th U.S. president pressed the leader of a foreign country, Ukraine, to help him undermine a domestic political competitor, has drawn outsize attention.

最重要的是,針對總裁·特朗普的一項激烈的彈劾調查引起了極大的關注。該調查的核心是,美國第45任總統總裁向外國領導人烏克蘭施壓,幫助他削弱國內的政治競爭對手。

The Trump impeachment inquiry is, perhaps, the most significant for markets in some ways, because of how it may influence the political will for a Sino-American trade dispute resolution and how it could influence the likely outcome of next year's U.S. presidential election.

在某些方面,特朗普彈劾調查對市場可能是最重要的,因為它可能如何影響中美貿易爭端解決的政治意願,以及它可能如何影響明年美國總統大選的可能結果。

It all seems like a giant wall of worry that the market has climbed before. However, there is a point at which a wall of worry becomes a wall of fear. On Wall Street, fear may be the only thing that trumps greed.

這一切看起來像是一堵巨大的擔憂牆,市場以前曾攀升過。然而,總有一天,擔憂之牆會變成恐懼之牆。在華爾街,恐懼可能是唯一壓倒貪婪的東西。

See: How the Fed's funding struggles highlight the fragility of Wall Street confidence (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fragility-of-wall-street-confidence-highlighted-by-feds-struggles-with-banking-system-funding-2019-09-21)

請看:美聯儲的融資困境如何突顯出華爾街信心指數(Wall Street Confisus(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fragility-of-wall-street-confidence-highlighted-by-feds-struggles-with-banking-system-funding-2019-09-21))的脆弱性

-Mark DeCambre; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com

-Mark DeCambre;415-439-6400;



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

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September 27, 2019 17:08 ET (21:08 GMT)

2019年9月27日17:08東部時間(格林尼治標準時間21:08)

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