According to a report published by China Merchants Securities International, the sales volume of unified enterprises in China in the second half of last year was 14 billion yuan, down 2.1% from year to year, 7% lower than the forecast of China Merchants Securities International. Although the company's management expects double-digit year-on-year revenue growth for the 2024 fiscal year, the bank is conservative and is expected to grow by 9.2% year-on-year. As the prices of most of the company's raw materials continued to fall until the 2024 fiscal year, the bank predicts that the unified gross margin will continue to expand, increasing 0.8 percentage points from year to year.
Overall, the bank lowered its earnings per share forecast for the 2024 and 2025 fiscal years by 4% and 5%, respectively. Based on the target ratio of 15 times earnings per share for the fiscal year 2024, the target price was reduced from HK$6.5 to HK$6.1, which was previously predicted to be 17 times. At the same time, it is expected that the company normalizes earnings per share to a compound annual growth rate of 15.1% until the 2026 fiscal year. The bank believes that a price-earnings ratio of 15 times is reasonable. According to China Merchants Securities International, although the company's dividend payout rate for FY2023 was 108%, down from 120% in the previous two years, it is still highly profitable, and the expected yield for FY2024 is 8.2%. With its strong cash flow, the bank expects the company's dividend payout ratio to remain at least 100% in the future, maintaining the “Overweight” rating.