Investment summary
A leading domestic transmission system company that has been deeply involved for many years. Chengdu Haoneng Technology Co., Ltd. was established in 2006 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2017. The company's business covers the automotive, rail transit and aerospace fields. The main products are synchronizer series products, differential series products, aerospace parts, etc.
The revenue of the synchronizer business grew steadily. Synchronizer is the company's largest business. The competitive advantage is obvious, the barriers to entry into the industry are high, and it is centralized and high-end. With DCT and heavy truck AMT working together, the company's synchronizer business is expected to achieve steady growth in the next few years.
The company focuses on expanding the differential business. The differential market is large, and the procurement model has changed to automakers directly purchasing assembly products. At the same time, new energy vehicles place higher demands on differential assemblies.
The company focuses on the differential business and has three major competitive advantages: ① layout of the entire differential product industry chain; ② excellent and broad customer base; ③ perfect differential capacity construction and long-term business planning.
Quickly enter the aerospace business and create a new growth curve. The company entered the field of high-end aviation equipment manufacturing through the acquisition of Hao Yiqiang; through participation in Aerospace Shenkun, the establishment of Haoneng Aerospace, and entered the aerospace field. The company has high product recognition and strong business profitability.
Actively expand emerging businesses such as motor shafts and planetary reducers. Motor shafts are a key core component for driving motors, and the rapid penetration of new energy vehicles is driving demand for motor shafts to grow. The company invested 550 million yuan to build a project with an annual output of 2 million electric shafts for new energy vehicles. Precision planetary reducers are one of the core components of robots. 23Q4 products were mass-produced, and there are close exchanges with companies in the robotics field.
Investment advice
The company's basic synchronizer has developed steadily, the differential starter drive performance has increased, the aerospace business has developed steadily, and the layout has broad room for growth with hollow motor shafts and precision planetary reducers.
We forecast that the company's net profit for 2023-2025 will be 214/2.73/342 million yuan, respectively, +1.02%/+27.71%/+25.53% year-on-year, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current market value is 15.56X/12.97X/10.33X, respectively. First coverage, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Risk of economic cycle fluctuations; risk of price fluctuations of major raw materials; risk of product substitution.