YUEXIU TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE(01052.HK):2023 RESULTS MISS; DIVIDEND PER SHARE RISES
YUEXIU TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE(01052.HK):2023 RESULTS MISS; DIVIDEND PER SHARE RISES
Trends to watch2023 results miss our forecast
2023 年的業績未達到我們的預期
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure announced its 2023 results: Revenue rose 20.6% YoY to Rmb3.97bn, and attributable net profit grew 68.9% YoY to Rmb765mn, missing our expectations. We attribute this to higher-than- expected depreciation and amortization costs and the impairment loss on investment in Shantou Bay Bridge of Rmb100mn. In 2H23, revenue rose 21.4% YoY to Rmb2.03bn, and attributable net profit surged 114.3% YoY to Rmb338mn.
越秀交通基礎設施公佈了其2023年業績：收入同比增長20.6％至39.7億元人民幣，應占淨利潤同比增長68.9％，至7.65億元人民幣，未達到我們的預期。我們將此歸因於高於預期的折舊和攤銷成本以及汕頭海灣大橋投資的減值損失爲1億元人民幣。在23年下半年，收入同比增長21.4％至20.3億元人民幣，應占淨利潤同比增長114.3％，至人民幣3.38億元。
The firm proposed to pay a dividend of HK$0.3/sh for 2023, implying a dividend payout ratio of 59.8%.
該公司提議在2023年派發每股0.3港元的股息，這意味着股息支付率爲59.8％。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Toll traffic volume recovers in 2023; toll revenue rises 20.3% YoY. Toll revenue rose 20.3% YoY to Rmb3.84bn in 2023, as toll traffic volume of road assets in which the firm holds stakes resumed growth thanks to the recovery of travel, and Henan Lanwei Expressway (acquired and consolidated in November 2022) recorded full-year revenue. Specifically, toll revenue from Guangzhou North Second Ring Expressway rose 12.7% YoY to Rmb1.11bn in 2023.
收費交通量在2023年恢復；通行費收入同比增長20.3％。2023年，通行費收入同比增長20.3％，至38.4億元人民幣，這要歸因於出行復甦，該公司持股的道路資產的收費交通量恢復增長，河南爛尾高速公路（於2022年11月收購併合併）創下全年收入。具體而言，廣州北二環高速公路的通行費收入在2023年同比增長12.7％至11.1億元人民幣。
Road assets in Hubei performed well, with toll revenue rising 13.1%, 20.6%, 7.8%, and 17.4% YoY for Suiyuenan Expressway, Hancai Expressway, Han'e Expressway, and Daguangnan Expressway. Toll revenue from road assets in Henan slightly declined, falling 3.2% and 6.3% YoY for Weixu Expressway and Lanwei Expressway in 2023. We attribute this to a relatively high base, as trucks (which contributed higher toll charges than passenger cars) were diverted to expressways since the implementation of local traffic restriction measures in 2022.
湖北的道路資產表現良好，隨嶽南高速公路、漢彩高速公路、漢鄂高速公路和大廣南高速公路的通行費收入同比增長13.1％、20.6％、7.8％和17.4％。河南省道路資產的通行費收入略有下降，2023年魏徐高速公路和爛尾高速公路的通行費收入同比下降3.2％和6.3％。我們將此歸因於相對較高的基數，因爲自2022年實施當地交通限制措施以來，卡車（比乘用車繳納的通行費更高）被轉移到高速公路。
Toll traffic volume to maintain steady growth in near term in 2024. Passenger cars: Data from the Ministry of Transport shows that passenger turnover of non-commercial passenger cars increased 5% YoY during the 2024 Chinese New Year (CNY) travel rush (January 26 to March 5), up 31% from 2019. Data from Transport Planning and Research Institute (TPRI) shows that the average daily motor vehicle traffic on nationwide trunk roads during the CNY holiday increased 15.9% YoY (up 10.9% from 2019), and the number of self-driving trips hit a record high.
收費交通量將在2024年短期內保持穩定增長。乘用車：交通運輸部的數據顯示，在2024年春節（CNY）出行高峰期間（1月26日至3月5日），非商用車的客運量同比增長了5％，比2019年增長了31％。交通規劃研究所（TPRI）的數據顯示，春節假期期間，全國主幹道上的平均每日機動車交通量同比增長15.9％（較2019年增長10.9％），自動駕駛出行次數創歷史新高。
Trucks: Data from the Ministry of Transport shows that truck traffic on expressways grew 4.7% YoY in January-February. We thus believe traffic volume growth on expressways will likely remain solid in 2024.
卡車：交通運輸部的數據顯示，1月至2月，高速公路上的卡車交通量同比增長4.7％。因此，我們認爲，到2024年，高速公路的交通量可能會保持穩健增長。
Earnings to grow in medium and long term; dividend yield to be high. According to corporate filings, the firm expects the reconstruction and expansion of its core road asset, Guangzhou North Second Ring Expressway, to start construction in June 2024. We believe the completion of this project will further improve traffic capacity and extend the toll collection period.
中長期收益將增長；股息收益率將很高。根據公司文件，該公司預計其核心道路資產——廣州北二環高速公路的重建和擴建將於2024年6月開始施工。我們認爲，該項目的完成將進一步提高交通能力並延長收費期。
Moreover, Yuexiu Group has acquired Shandong Qinbin Expressway and Henan Pinglin Expressway. We believe these assets may be injected into the firm to further expand its assets. We think the firm's dividend payout ratio is relatively high, and we estimate the current price implies a dividend yield of 7.8% and 8.6% for 2024 and 2025, which is attractive.
此外，越秀集團還收購了山東秦濱高速公路和河南平林高速公路。我們認爲，這些資產可能會注入公司，以進一步擴大其資產。我們認爲該公司的股息支付率相對較高，我們估計當前的價格意味着2024年和2025年的股息收益率分別爲7.8％和8.6％，這很有吸引力。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
Given higher-than-expected amortization costs, we lower our 2024 net profit forecast 24.9% to Rmb821mn. We introduce our 2025 earnings forecast of Rmb862mn. The stock is trading at 7.7x 2024e and 7.0x 2025e P/E. Given the firm's solid dividend payout, we maintain OUTPERFORM and target price of HK$5.19, implying 9.4x 2024e and 8.6x 2025e P/E, offering 22.4% upside.
鑑於攤銷成本高於預期，我們將2024年的淨利潤預期下調了24.9％，至8.21億元人民幣。我們公佈了2025年8.62億元人民幣的收益預測。該股的交易價格爲2024年的7.7倍和2025年的7.0倍。鑑於該公司穩健的股息支付，我們維持跑贏大盤，目標價爲5.19港元，這意味着2024年市盈率爲9.4倍，2025年市盈率爲8.6倍，上漲幅爲22.4％。
Risks
風險
Adjustments to toll collection policies; disappointing economic growth.
調整收費政策；令人失望的經濟增長。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。