It's been a pretty great week for VTEX (NYSE:VTEX) shareholders, with its shares surging 13% to US$8.34 in the week since its latest yearly results. Revenues of US$202m were in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.073, some 12% smaller than was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

After the latest results, the seven analysts covering VTEX are now predicting revenues of US$244.9m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a major 22% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. VTEX is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.0062 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$243.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.044 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

The consensus price target held steady at US$9.29, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic VTEX analyst has a price target of US$13.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$6.50. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 22% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 22% annual growth over the past three years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 10.0% annually. So although VTEX is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$9.29, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on VTEX. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for VTEX going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of VTEX's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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