NOAH HOLDINGS LTD(6686.HK):NOAH MAY REPORT LARGE YOY INCREASE IN 4Q23 EARNINGS
NOAH HOLDINGS LTD(6686.HK):NOAH MAY REPORT LARGE YOY INCREASE IN 4Q23 EARNINGS
Although the volatility of equity markets remained quite high in 4Q23, we expect Noah to report large increase in net profit 4Q23, mainly due to relatively low comparison base in 4Q22 and its rapid expansion in overseas business. Noah made contingent litigation expenses of RMB99m due to the first-instance ruling in December 2022. It is less likely that Noah will make such contingent litigation expenses in 4Q23. We expect its adjusted net profit to increase about 60% YoY in 4Q23 and 1% YoY in 2023, against 8.7% YoY decrease in 9M23. Despite high volatility in domestic equity markets, we believe Noah's AUM may be stable in 4Q23, mainly thanks to its rapid expansion in overseas business, further reflecting its strong competitiveness in the wealth management industry. In our view, its overseas net revenue and AUM may continue to report decent growth in 4Q23 and 2024.
儘管股票市場的波動性在23年第四季度仍然很高，但我們預計諾亞將在23年第四季度報告淨利潤大幅增長，這主要是由於2022年第四季度的比較基礎相對較低以及其海外業務的快速擴張。由於2022年12月的一審裁決，諾亞支付了人民幣9900萬元的或有訴訟費用。諾亞在 23 年第四季度支付此類或有訴訟費用的可能性較小。我們預計，其調整後的淨利潤將在23年第四季度同比增長約60％，在2023年同比增長1％，而9M23年同比下降8.7％。儘管國內股票市場波動很大，但我們認爲諾亞的資產管理規模可能在23年第四季度保持穩定，這主要是由於其海外業務的快速擴張，這進一步反映了其在財富管理行業的強大競爭力。我們認爲，其海外淨收入和資產管理規模可能會在23年第四季度和2024年繼續保持可觀的增長。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Overseas business would continue to grow rapidly in 4Q23. We expect its number of overseas active clients to maintain decent growth in 4Q23 after increasing 78.6% YoY in 3Q23. We expect its overseas net revenue to surge about 80% YoY and accounted for about 60% of its total net revenue in 2023, up from 26.7% in 2022.
海外業務將在23年第四季度繼續快速增長。我們預計，其海外活躍客戶數量在23年第三季度同比增長78.6％之後，將在23年第四季度保持可觀的增長。我們預計其海外淨收入將同比增長約80％，佔2023年總淨收入的60％左右，高於2022年的26.7％。
Overseas AUM may expand decently in 4Q23. As Noah focused on expanding overseas business, we expect its overseas AUM to have increased about 10% YoY in 4Q23 and accounted for about 23% of total AUM as of end December 2023, up from 20.8% as of end December 2022. We expect its AUM may reach RMB156bn at end December 2023, against RMB157.1bn as of end December 2022.
海外資產管理規模可能會在 23 年第四季度大幅擴張。由於諾亞專注於擴大海外業務，我們預計其海外資產管理規模將在2023年第四季度同比增長約10％，佔總資產管理規模的約23％，高於2022年12月底的20.8％。我們預計，到2023年12月底，其資產管理規模可能達到1560億元人民幣，而截至2022年12月底爲1571億元人民幣。
Dividend payout ratio will increase. Noah will raise its dividend payout ratio to 35% from previous target of 10%, which should bode well for shareholders' interests. In our view, Noah will maintain its competitiveness in China's wealth and asset management market in the next few years.
股息支付率將增加。諾亞將把股息支付率從之前的10％提高到35％，這對股東的利益來說應該是個好兆頭。我們認爲，諾亞將在未來幾年內保持其在中國財富和資產管理市場的競爭力。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Noah might be negatively affected by increasing volatility in the equity markets; risk events in investments such as Camsing incident may negatively affect Noah's value and brand image.
股票市場波動加劇可能會對諾亞產生負面影響；投資中的風險事件，例如Camsing事件，可能會對諾亞的價值和品牌形象產生負面影響。
Valuation
估價
We noted that Chinese equity markets sentiment has improved in recent weeks. Meanwhile, its overseas business may continue to report decent growth in the near future. Noah is now trading at 5.6x 2023E adjusted P/E, which is undervalued. We slightly revised down our target price from US$22.58 to US$22.5, based on 10.7x 2023E adjusted P/E, at about 15% discount to its average forward P/E over the past ten years. Maintain BUY rating.
我們注意到，最近幾周，中國股市情緒有所改善。同時，其海外業務在不久的將來可能會繼續實現可觀的增長。諾亞目前的交易價格爲2023年經調整後的市盈率的5.6倍，該市盈率被低估了。根據2023年10.7倍的調整市盈率，我們將目標價格從22.58美元小幅下調至22.5美元，比過去十年的平均遠期市盈率折扣了約15％。維持買入評級。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。