2022 年产铁1327.65 万吨，产钢1418.46 万吨，生产商品坯材1344.27 万吨，生产稀土精矿15.86 万吨；生产萤石精矿11.76 万吨，实现营业收入721.72 亿元，上缴税费27.31 亿元。2024 年1 月30 日，包钢股份发布2023 年业绩预告。报告期内，公司预计实现净利润4.5 亿元到5.6 亿元，同比增加161.65%到176.72%，实现扭亏为盈。已发布年度业绩预告的21 家钢铁企业中，有12 家企业处于亏损状态、43 家企业业绩预减，公司业绩表现较为亮眼。Baogang Co., Ltd. is a leading steel company in the western region. Baogang Co., Ltd. is the world's largest rare earth industrial base and an important base for the Chinese steel industry. It is one of the largest listed steel companies in western China. Baotou Iron & Steel (Group) Co., Ltd. is the controlling shareholder of Baogang Co., Ltd., with a shareholding ratio of 55.24%. The actual controller is the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region People's Government.
It has an annual supporting capacity of 17.5 million tons of iron, steel and materials. The company's overall equipment level has reached a world-class level, forming a production layout centered on the four “board, tube, rail and line” production lines. It has CSP, wide and thick plates, international advanced 2250 mm hot rolling and galvanizing production lines, etc., with a production capacity of 9.7 million tons; has 5 seamless pipe production lines with a diameter of 159 mm and 460 mm, with a production capacity of over 1.7 million tons; has 2 world-advanced large-scale universal rolling production lines and waste heat hardening production lines, with a production capacity of 2.1 million tons; and has 5 production lines for wire bars, strip steel, etc., with a production capacity of 3.2 million tons.
Baogang Co., Ltd. predicts that it will turn a loss into a profit in 2023, and its performance is quite impressive.
In 2022, it produced 13.2765 million tons of iron, 14.1846 million tons of steel, produced 13.4427 million tons of commercial billets, produced 158,600 tons of rare earth concentrate; produced 117,600 tons of fluorite concentrate, achieved revenue of 72.172 billion yuan, and paid 2,731 billion yuan in taxes and fees. On January 30, 2024, Baogang Co., Ltd. announced the 2023 performance forecast. During the reporting period, the company expects to achieve net profit of 450 million yuan to 550 million yuan, an increase of 161.65% to 176.72% over the previous year, turning a loss into a profit. Of the 21 steel companies that have issued annual performance forecasts, 12 companies are in a state of loss, 43 have declined in advance, and the company's performance is quite impressive.
It is rich in its own mineral resources, and is blessed with rare earth, fluorite and other resources. Through the purchase of mining rights in Baiyun Ebosi Mine, the acquisition of Baogang Group tailings depot assets, and the acquisition of 100% of Guyang Mining Company's shares, the company is rich in its own mineral resources. The company signed an “Exclusive Ore Supply Agreement” with Baogang Group. Baogang Group exclusively supplies the company with about 10 million tons of Baiyun Ebo raw ore per year. The company has huge reserves of tailings depot resources, with rare earth refractive oxide reserves of about 13.82 million tons and fluorite reserves of 43.92 million tons.
Profit forecasting and ratings. We expect the company's 2023-2025 EPS to be 0.011/0.034/0.047 yuan respectively. The company has an annual supporting capacity of 17.5 million tons of iron, steel and materials, is rich in its own mineral resources, and is blessed with rare earth, fluorite and other resources. Based on the above reasons, and referring to the company's high PE level in the past 4 years, we gave the company a PE valuation of 60 times in 2024, with a target price of 2.04 yuan. For the first time, coverage gave it a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: Domestic investment growth is slowing down, overall steel production capacity is overcapacity, and energy consumption dual control policies affect the industry.
