LEE & MAN CHEMICAL(00746.HK):PROFIT WARNING FOR FY2023 IN LINE WITH EXPECTATION
LEE & MAN CHEMICAL(00746.HK):PROFIT WARNING FOR FY2023 IN LINE WITH EXPECTATION
We maintain the TP at HK$4.30 and reiterate "Buy" rating. We maintain the forecasted EPS in 2023-2025 at HK$0.581/ HK$1.136/ HK$1.489, respectively, which represents YoY growth of (58.5%)/ 95.3%/ 31.1%. We maintain the TP at HK$4.30, representing 2023/ 2024/ 2025 PER of 7.4x/ 3.8x/ 2.9x, respectively.
我們將目標價維持在4.30港元，並重申 “買入” 評級。我們將2023-2025年的預期每股收益分別維持在0.581港元/1.136港元/1.489港元，同比增長（58.5％）/95.3％/31.1％。我們將目標價維持在4.30港元，相當於2023年/ 2024/ 2025年市盈率分別爲7.4倍/3.8倍/2.9倍。
Profit attributable to shareholders decreased 65% YoY in FY2023, which was in line with expectation. Lee & Man Chemical (the "Company") explained that due to the decrease in average market prices of the Company's major products under the weak market conditions, revenue and gross profit margin dropped and led to a 65% YoY decrease in profit attributable to shareholders during FY2023, which was largely in line with our expectation.
在 FY2023 中，股東應占利潤同比下降65％，符合預期。Lee & Man Chemical（“公司”）解釋說，由於在疲軟的市場條件下，公司主要產品的平均市場價格下降，收入和毛利率下降，導致股東應占利潤同比下降65％，這在很大程度上符合我們的預期。FY2023
The drop in major products prices has stabilized in 2024. The significant decrease in product prices in FY2023 was mainly due to the demand-supply imbalance in the market. On one hand, with the comprehensive relaxation of domestic pandemic prevention measures, the upstream supply capacity that had been suppressed during the pandemic period was released. On the other hand, manufacturing clients generally increased their inventory levels during the pandemic to cope with potential uncertainties, leading to weak downstream demand. However, this situation has gradually improved with supply stabilizing while demand starts to increase with depletion of inventory and recovery of the economy, and prices of major products cease to drop and some of them start to rise.
主要產品價格的下降在2024年已經穩定下來。FY2023 產品價格的大幅下跌主要是由於市場供需失衡。一方面，隨着國內疫情防控措施的全面放鬆，疫情期間受到抑制的上游供應能力得到釋放。另一方面，製造業客戶在疫情期間通常會增加庫存水平，以應對潛在的不確定性，從而導致下游需求疲軟。但是，隨着供應的穩定，這種情況逐漸得到改善，而需求隨着庫存枯竭和經濟的復甦而開始增加，主要產品的價格停止下跌，其中一些開始上漲。
We estimate that new products can contribute additional revenue of RMB3.3 billion at current market prices, once in full production. The expansion project in Jiangxi province, once completed in 2025, can produce 10,000 tons/year lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6), 20,000 tons/year polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF), and 50,000 tons/year of ancillary hydrogen fluoride products. In addition, the 3,000 tons/year of fluoroethylene carbonate (FEC) facility in Zhuhai, which is planned to be completed in two phases by 2024 and 2025, will significantly increase the Company's production capacity for lithium-ion battery electrolyte additives.
我們估計，按當前市場價格計算，新產品一旦全面生產，可以帶來33億元人民幣的額外收入。江西省的擴建項目一旦於2025年完工，每年可生產1萬噸六氟磷酸鋰（LiPF6）、2萬噸/年的聚偏二氟乙烯（PVDF）和5萬噸/年的輔助氟化氫產品。此外，位於珠海的年產3,000噸碳酸氟乙烯（FEC）工廠計劃於2024年和2025年分兩個階段完工，將顯著提高公司的鋰離子電池電解質添加劑的生產能力。
Catalysts: 1) The acceleration in market consolidation may increase the Company's market share, and; 2) the Company's new materials projects are set to commence production in 2024 and 2025.
催化劑：1) 市場整合的加速可能會增加公司的市場份額，以及；2) 公司的新材料項目定於2024年和2025年投產。
Risks: 1) The coming years may see intense market competition due to significant capacity increases, and; 2) technological advancements in batteries could profoundly impact the demand for the Company's products.
風險：1）由於產能的大幅增加，未來幾年可能會出現激烈的市場競爭；2）電池的技術進步可能會對公司產品的需求產生深遠影響。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。