Incident: The company released a performance report. In '23, it achieved revenue of 537 million yuan, an increase of 2.8%, a return of 73 million yuan, a decrease of 34%, and a deduction of less than 0.42 million yuan, and a decrease of 50%. Among them, Q4 revenue was 82 million yuan, a decrease of 39%/24%, a return of -0.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 111%/122%, a reduction of 111%/122%, a decrease of 232%/412% for the same period. The performance was lower than market expectations. This was due to a decrease in automation business revenue, a sharp increase in R&D expenses, combined with equity incentive payments and subsidiary deductions.
The growth rate of the pole ear welding business has slowed, and profit levels have remained stable. Looking at 23 years, due to the slowdown in battery factory expansion, the company's main business fell short of market expectations. We expect revenue from the extreme ear welding business to be 330 million yuan and revenue from consumables. The two are basically the same as year on year. The revenue from the automation business has dropped sharply. The new business is basically in line with market expectations. Wire+IGBT contributed 50 million yuan. The overall gross margin is expected to remain 55%, and profitability remains stable. Looking at 24 years, we expect revenue from the extreme ear welding business to be 260 million yuan, a decrease of 20%, revenue from consumables of 150 million yuan, and an increase of 70%. The volume of rolling welding equipment is expected to contribute 0.3 to 50 million yuan in revenue, and wire harness+IGBT revenue of 100 million yuan, doubling the year-on-year increase.
The rapid growth of wire harness+IGBT, and the opening volume of roller welding equipment. Looking at the new business, ① The localization rate of high-voltage wiring harness+IGBT is low, and the price and profit of a single unit is higher than that of extreme ear welding. We expect the gross margin to exceed 65%, and the consumption of consumables is large and the loss is faster. The company has exclusively broken through 120 flat welding technology. After the fast charging/high pressure end gradually matures, the company's products are expected to be fully profitable. Currently, it has received orders from mainstream wire harness manufacturers, and we expect to double in 24-26; ② The composite collector ultrasonic roller welder has received orders from leading lithium power plants. We expect the gross margin to exceed 50%, with a corresponding value of 8 million yuan. We expect the gross margin to exceed 50%, and the shipment in 24 years will begin to contribute to profits. Hedge pole ear welding has declined, and elasticity is expected to rise to 10-20% in 25 years.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Considering that downstream demand fell short of market expectations, we revised the company's net profit from 23-25 million yuan to 0.7/1.2/20 million (previously estimated at 1.0/1.4/220 million yuan), -34%/+65%/+63% year-on-year, corresponding to PE 89/54/33x, considering the rapid growth of new businesses and maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Raw material prices fluctuate more than market expectations, and sales volume and policies fall short of expectations.