公司具备发展成为 Biopharma 的潜质，成长天花板有望不断提升。公司具备以下几点重要特质：（1）优秀的领导团队，公司实控人对于研发和产业化都有深刻见解；（2）即将商业化的大品种能为公司自我输血；（3）具备竞争力的在研管线，包含自身免疫性疾病、抗感染和肿瘤；（4）源头创新稳定输出，所有产品均来源于自研管线；（5）高效的产品孵化能力；（6）前瞻性的商业化产能准备。Key points of investment:
The company is expected to enter a new stage of development in 2024 and will usher in a number of key milestones. In the short term, GR1501 has submitted an NDA for moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, and it is expected that H1 will be approved as the first domestic anti-IL-17A monoclonal antibody to be marketed in 24. The marketing registration application for axial spondyloarthritis has been accepted by the NMPA; the world's first anti-rabies dual antibody GR1801 has initiated phase III clinical trials, and the company expects commercialization in 2025. In the long run, 8 products, including 15 indications, have now entered clinical research. Indications including IL-4Rα monoclonal antibody for atopic dermatitis have started phase III in Q4 of 2023, and indications such as urticaria and asthma are in clinical phase II. In addition, the company also has the world's first anti-TSLP dual antibody and the first CD3 × CD123 dual antibody in China. The development ceiling is expected to continue to rise.
Establish a leading position in the autoimmune disease industry. The adjusted peak sales value of GR1501 is expected to reach more than 2 billion yuan. The first-mover advantage of the product is beneficial to the company's strategic deployment in dermatology and rheumatology and immunology. In the long run, IL-4R monoclonal antibody GR1802 and IFNAR1 monoclonal antibody GR1603 still mainly cover people with autoimmune diseases such as dermatology and rheumatology immunology, while rabies GR1802 and tetanus toxin monoclonal antibody GR2001 are all used for passive immunotherapy after virus infection. We believe that adopting the idea of combining multiple products to build product clusters in superior departments may bring good profit margins to the enterprise in the future.
The company has the potential to develop into Biopharma, and the growth ceiling is expected to continue to rise. The company has the following important characteristics: (1) excellent leadership team, and the company's actual controllers have deep insight into R&D and industrialization; (2) large varieties to be commercialized can self-transfuse blood for the company; (3) competitive research pipelines, including autoimmune diseases, anti-infections and tumors; (4) source innovation and stable output, all products come from self-developed pipelines; (5) efficient product incubation capabilities; (6) forward-looking commercial production capacity preparation.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect annual revenue of 2023E-2025E to be 0.01.1/4.4 billion yuan, respectively. Using the DCF valuation method for valuation, it is estimated that the company's reasonable stock price is 53.7 yuan, and the reasonable value is 19.7 billion yuan. First coverage, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk that the sales revenue of GR1501, GR1801, and GR1802 products falls short of expectations; the risk that the product launch progress falls short of expectations; the risk that the product fails to enter the national medical insurance catalogue.
