Hot news

• Is the “dream of interest rate cuts” shattered? The market is beginning to face the risk that the Fed will return to raising interest rates

According to data from the interest rate options market, some investors have begun to hedge against the risk of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Analysts said that the rise in shipping costs due to geopolitical conflicts may complicate the Fed's efforts to fight inflation. Currently, the market's expected distribution of the Fed's decision results is no longer unidirectional. Although the probability of interest rate cuts is still high, this change in anticipation of a renewed interest rate hike is worth noting.

• Another 30% increase! Analysts predict that the S&P 500 may reach 6,500 points in 2026

Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, predicts that the S&P 500 could reach 6,500 points in 2026, which means that the index could grow 30% from current levels. He believes that although there are minor risks, such as investors may be too enthusiastic about the stock market, causing the stock market to overheat and then crash, the stock market is likely to continue to rise.

• Biden's economic adviser: I'm not worried about a rebound in inflation, I'm very concerned about the trend of the “Big Seven”

On the question of a possible rebound in inflation, Bernstein, a member of the White House Economic Advisory Committee, said that although he has seen two quite disappointing key inflation reports, he is not worried about this. In the financial market, Bernstein is concerned about the trend of the “Big Seven” such as Apple and Nvidia. I'm not worried about the soaring stock prices of these companies and their growing weight in the S&P 500 index; on the contrary, I think this is a positive change.

• Citi added bullish commodities: $3,000 for gold and $100 for oil, that's entirely possible!

Aakash Doshi, head of commodity research at Citigroup North America, recently said that in the next 12-18 months, the price of gold may soar to 3,000 US dollars per ounce, and the price of oil may rise to 100 US dollars per barrel. A sharp increase in gold purchases by central banks around the world, or stagflation, or a severe recession in the global economy, may drive a sharp rise in gold.

Resumption of US stock trading

• Nvidia, a “super weighted stock”, led the decline, and the three major indices fell collectively

On Tuesday, the three major US stock indices fell collectively, and Nvidia, a “super weight stock” scheduled to release financial reports tomorrow, clearly dragged down the S&P and NASDAQ indices.

Most of the big tech stocks fell, with Nvidia falling more than 4%, Tesla falling more than 3%, Amazon falling more than 1%, and Meta, Microsoft, and Apple falling slightly. Google rose 0.31%, returning to third place in the US stock market value.

Most popular Chinese securities fell, with Xiaopeng Auto falling more than 5%, JD falling more than 4%, NIO and Pinduoduo falling nearly 3%, Alibaba falling more than 1%, and Ideal Auto rising slightly.

• On the eve of the big earnings report, Nvidia once fell nearly 7% intraday

“AI shovel seller”$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$At one point, it fell nearly 7% in the intraday period, closing down 4.35% to $694.52 per share, the lowest closing price since February 7, and the market capitalization fell from US$179 million to US$172 million. Nvidia is scheduled to release its results report after the US stock market today. Market analysts believe that even if the company can hand over slightly better earnings than expected, it will not be worthy of its excessive valuation.

• Microsoft quietly works to reduce dependence on Nvidia: developing alternatives to network cards

On Tuesday, February 20, EST, the media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying,$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$An alternative to Nvidia's network card, similar to Nvidia's ConnectX-7 network card, is being developed to ensure the rapid movement of data between Microsoft servers. Microsoft hopes that this new network device will not only save the company money, but also improve the performance of Nvidia's chip servers.

• US private lunar probes are progressing smoothly, and developers' stock prices have risen 50% to a record high

$Intuitive Machines (LUNR.US)$The stock price rose more than 50% to $10.99 per share, reaching an intraday high of $12.05. According to the news, the Intuitive Machine is also getting closer to successfully landing on the moon: the lunar lander “Odysseus” developed by it has successively completed several key milestones in the IM-1 mission. One of the key stages is that Odysseus successfully starts the engine and will use the engine to adjust its trajectory to stay on target.

• Just hit hard by Sora last week, Adobe, the founder of PDF, launched an AI-assisted reading function

$Adobe (ADBE.US)$On Tuesday, it was announced that a beta version of the AI assistant service will be launched in Acrobat, its paid PDF reading software. After the test is over, a special fee tier will be launched for this AI service. However, due to the decline led by Nvidia and the crushing impact of Sora's rise on the “image authorization” sector, this news failed to boost Adobe's stock price, and the company eventually fell nearly 1%.

• Walmart announces $2.3 billion acquisition of TV manufacturer VIZIO

retail giant$Walmart (WMT.US)$It was announced on its official website that it has partnered with an American TV manufacturer$VIZIO (VZIO.US)$After reaching an agreement, Walmart will acquire VIZIO for $11.50 per share in cash, which is equivalent to a fully diluted share value of about $2.3 billion. By the close, VIZIO had surged more than 16%.

Top 20 US stock turnover

Hong Kong Market Outlook

• Beishui racked up leading Chinese stocks, added more than HK$900 million in CNOOC positions, and bought more than HK$500 million from China Mobile

On February 20 (Tuesday), Southbound made a net purchase of HK$3.472 billion in Hong Kong stocks today.

$CNOOC (00883.HK)$,$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$,$CCB (00939.HK)$Received net purchases of HK$916 million, HK$523 million and HK$282 million respectively;

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$,$SMIC (00981.HK)$,$SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)$Net sales were HK$205 million, HK$81.08 million, and HK$80.72 million respectively.

Today's attention

Keywords: Nvidia/Rivian/Lucid performance, 2024 FOMC voting committee Bostic speech

On Wednesday, in terms of Fed dynamics, 2024 FOMC voting committee and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic delivered a welcome speech at an event.

Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic previously said that if the inflation data improves, he can “definitely” expect three interest rate cuts instead of the two that he currently likes.

In terms of financial reports, the most important one is$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The company will announce quarterly results after the US stock market. Analysts expect Nvidia to have a third consecutive quarter of record revenue and profit.

Also, the American Electric Vehicle Company$Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$,$Lucid Group (LCID.US)$US stocks will also be listed after the market.

Futubull Chen read:

When making decisions, you need to have most of the basis, but you also need to allow yourself to make mistakes.
—Charlie Munger

Editor/Somer