The electric vehicle (EV) industry is experiencing a significant shift as producers of lithium and nickel, essential components in lithium-ion batteries, are pausing projects and shutting down mines in a bid to conserve cash. This move comes in the wake of a dramatic decrease in commodity prices, with lithium prices dropping by up to 90% since last year, and nickel prices seeing a reduction by about half.
Albemarle Rethinks South Carolina Project Amid Price Crash
According to the Wall Street Journal, Albemarle Corp. (NYSE:ALB), a key player in the production of battery metals, is reevaluating its plans for a high-tech $1.3 billion lithium processing plant in South Carolina.
As a result, Albemarle is implementing company-wide cost-cutting measures, including layoffs and delays in other investments.
Glencore and BHP Group Face Setbacks
Glencore, a Swiss mining and trading giant, announced the suspension of operations at an unprofitable nickel mine and processing plant in New Caledonia, citing high operating costs and a weak market. The company is looking for buyers for its stake in this venture that contributes over 6% to the world's nickel supply.
Meanwhile, BHP Group (NYSE:BHP), the world's largest miner by market value, has indicated that it may need to close its Australian nickel business temporarily. Despite having supply agreements with major automakers like Tesla and Ford Motor, BHP is wary of a quick market recovery.
Industry Challenges and Investment Slowdown
The global supply of lithium and nickel has surged as producers expanded operations to meet the anticipated demand from the EV industry. However, with the growth of EV sales slowing down, several automakers, including Ford, General Motors, and Volvo, are adopting a more cautious approach, delaying investments due to uncertain consumer demand.
This cautious stance is further evidenced by the bankruptcy filing of British electric-vehicle maker Arrival's U.K. business, attributing its challenges to adverse macroeconomic conditions.
ETFs Reflect Market Downturn
The downturn has also impacted investment products linked to the battery metal sector. The Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (NYSE:LIT), which offers exposure to global lithium companies, has declined by 37% in the past year, with a more than 50% drop since its peak in 2021. Similarly, the Sprott Nickel Miners ETF (NASDAQ:NIKL) has experienced a 45% decrease since July 2023.
Chart: Significant Decline in Lithium and Nickel-Related Stocks Since Last Summer
Looking Ahead: Potential for Recovery Amid Challenges
Despite the current downturn, some industry analysts believe that the scale of the cutbacks might be moderate, suggesting that miners are still optimistic about long-term demand. Lower metal prices could eventually benefit automotive companies by enabling them to offer cheaper models and discounts, potentially reigniting sales growth.
However, the current slowdown in mining operations poses a risk of future shortages if demand for EVs surges again, potentially leaving car manufacturers in search of supplies.
電動汽車(EV)行業正在經歷重大轉變,因爲鋰離子電池的重要組成部分鋰和鎳的生產商正在暫停項目並關閉礦山以節省現金。此舉是在大宗商品價格急劇下跌之後採取的,自去年以來,鋰價格下跌了多達90%,鎳價格下降了約一半。
在價格暴跌期間,雅寶重新考慮南卡羅來納州的項目
據《華爾街日報》報道,電池金屬生產的關鍵參與者雅保公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:ALB)正在重新評估其在南卡羅來納州建造一座耗資13億美元的高科技鋰加工廠的計劃。
因此,雅寶正在全公司範圍內實施削減成本的措施,包括裁員和推遲其他投資。
嘉能可和必拓集團面臨挫折
瑞士礦業和貿易巨頭嘉能可宣佈暫停新喀里多尼亞一家無利可圖的鎳礦和加工廠的運營,理由是運營成本高昂和市場疲軟。該公司正在爲其在該合資企業中的股份尋找買家,該合資企業對全球鎳供應的貢獻超過6%。
同時,按市值計算,全球最大的礦商必和必拓集團(紐約證券交易所代碼:BHP)表示,可能需要暫時關閉其澳大利亞鎳礦業務。儘管與特斯拉和福特汽車等主要汽車製造商簽訂了供應協議,但必和必拓對市場的快速復甦持謹慎態度。
行業挑戰和投資放緩
隨着生產商擴大業務以滿足電動汽車行業的預期需求,全球鋰和鎳的供應激增。但是,隨着電動汽車銷量增長放緩,包括福特、通用汽車和沃爾沃在內的幾家汽車製造商正在採取更加謹慎的態度,由於消費者需求的不確定而推遲了投資。
英國電動汽車製造商Arrival的英國業務申請破產進一步證明了這種謹慎立場,將其挑戰歸因於不利的宏觀經濟狀況。
ETF反映了市場低迷
經濟低迷還影響了與電池金屬行業相關的投資產品。向全球鋰公司提供敞口的Global X鋰和電池科技ETF(紐約證券交易所代碼:LIT)在過去一年中下跌了37%,自2021年達到峯值以來跌幅超過50%。同樣,Sprott Nickel Miners ETF(納斯達克股票代碼:NIKL)自2023年7月以來下跌了45%。
圖表:自去年夏天以來,鋰和鎳相關股票大幅下跌
展望未來:挑戰中的復甦潛力
儘管目前處於低迷狀態,但一些行業分析師認爲,削減規模可能適中,這表明礦商對長期需求仍然持樂觀態度。較低的金屬價格最終可能會使汽車公司能夠提供更便宜的車型和折扣,從而使它們受益,從而有可能重啓銷售增長。
但是,如果對電動汽車的需求再次激增,當前採礦業務的放緩將構成未來短缺的風險,這可能會讓汽車製造商尋找供應。