MGM CHINA(02282.HK):RECORD-HIGH PERFORMANCE
MGM CHINA(02282.HK):RECORD-HIGH PERFORMANCE
MGM China reported 4Q23 net revenue of HK$7.7bn and adjusted Ebitda of HK$2.2bn, higher than our expectation, thanks to better-than-expected market share gain. Adjusted EBITDA turnaround from 2022 to historical high of HK$7.2bn in 2023, representing 17% increase of 2019 level. The company had market share of 15.2% for 2023, up from 9.5% in 2019. We raise EPS forecast from HK$0.69 to HK$0.96 (+33% YoY) in 24E, from HK$0.83 to HK$1.06 (+10% YoY) in 25E, and introduce 26E forecast of HK$1.15 (+9% YoY). We raise target price from HK$13 to HK15.4. With 20.3% upside potential, we maintain Buy rating.
4Q23 results. The company's total gross gaming revenue (GGR) increased 307% YoY and 23% QoQ, representing 25% increase over 2019 level. Mass GGR surpassed 4Q19 by 74%, slot GGR surpassed 4Q19 by 25%, and VIP GGR recovered to 49% of 4Q19 level. Total Ebitda exceeded 4Q19 by 41%, in which MGM Cotai exceeded 4Q19 by 113% and MGM Macau recovered 90% of 4Q19 level.
Strong Chinese New Year visitor volume. According to the provisional figures from the Macau Government Tourism Office (MGTO), during the eight-day holiday, the total number of tourists to Macau reached over 1.35m, +13% over 2019 level, and the daily average number of tourists reached over 169k, recovering to 99% of 2019 level, higher than MGTO's previous forecast of 120k per day.
Maintain Buy. We raise target price from HK$13 to HK15.4. With 20.3% upside potential, we maintain Buy rating.
Risks: Lower-than-expected revenue recovery.
MGM China reported 4Q23 net revenue of HK$7.7bn and adjusted Ebitda of HK$2.2bn, higher than our expectation, thanks to better-than-expected market share gain. Adjusted EBITDA turnaround from 2022 to historical high of HK$7.2bn in 2023, representing 17% increase of 2019 level. The company had market share of 15.2% for 2023, up from 9.5% in 2019. We raise EPS forecast from HK$0.69 to HK$0.96 (+33% YoY) in 24E, from HK$0.83 to HK$1.06 (+10% YoY) in 25E, and introduce 26E forecast of HK$1.15 (+9% YoY). We raise target price from HK$13 to HK15.4. With 20.3% upside potential, we maintain Buy rating.
由於市場份額增長好於預期，米高梅中國公佈的23年第四季度淨收入爲77億港元，調整後的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤爲22億港元，高於我們的預期。2022年調整後的息稅折舊攤銷前利潤週轉率至2023年72億港元的歷史新高，比2019年的水平增長了17％。該公司2023年的市場份額爲15.2％，高於2019年的9.5％。我們將24E的每股收益預測從0.69港元上調至0.96港元（同比增長33％），將25E的每股收益預測從0.83港元上調至1.06港元（同比增長10％），並推出26E的預測爲1.15港元（同比增長9％）。我們將目標價從13港元上調至15.4港元。由於上漲潛力爲20.3％，我們維持買入評級。
4Q23 results. The company's total gross gaming revenue (GGR) increased 307% YoY and 23% QoQ, representing 25% increase over 2019 level. Mass GGR surpassed 4Q19 by 74%, slot GGR surpassed 4Q19 by 25%, and VIP GGR recovered to 49% of 4Q19 level. Total Ebitda exceeded 4Q19 by 41%, in which MGM Cotai exceeded 4Q19 by 113% and MGM Macau recovered 90% of 4Q19 level.
23 年第四季度的業績。該公司的總博彩收入（GGR）同比增長307％，環比增長23％，比2019年的水平增長25％。Mass GGR比2019年第四季度高出74％，老虎機GGR比2019年第四季度高出25％，VIP GGR恢復至2019年第四季度水平的49％。總息稅折舊攤銷前利潤超過2019年第四季度41％，其中美高梅路氹比2019年第四季度高出113％，澳門美高梅恢復了2019年第四季度水平的90％。
Strong Chinese New Year visitor volume. According to the provisional figures from the Macau Government Tourism Office (MGTO), during the eight-day holiday, the total number of tourists to Macau reached over 1.35m, +13% over 2019 level, and the daily average number of tourists reached over 169k, recovering to 99% of 2019 level, higher than MGTO's previous forecast of 120k per day.
春節遊客人數強勁。根據澳門特別行政區政府旅遊局（MGTO）的臨時數據，在爲期八天的假期中，澳門的遊客總數超過135萬，比2019年的水平增長13％，每日平均遊客人數超過16.9萬，恢復到2019年水平的99％，高於旅遊局先前預測的每天12萬人次。
Maintain Buy. We raise target price from HK$13 to HK15.4. With 20.3% upside potential, we maintain Buy rating.
維持買入。我們將目標價從13港元上調至15.4港元。由於上漲潛力爲20.3％，我們維持買入評級。
Risks: Lower-than-expected revenue recovery.
風險：收入回升低於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
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