Patria Investments Limited (NASDAQ:PAX) Exceeded Expectations And The Analyst Consensus Has Been Reviewing Its Models

As you might know, Patria Investments Limited (NASDAQ:PAX) just kicked off its latest full-year results with some very strong numbers. The company beat expectations with revenues of US$328m arriving 9.0% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were US$0.79, 8.1% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Patria Investments

Following the latest results, Patria Investments' four analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$381.6m in 2024. This would be a decent 16% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 25% to US$1.00. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$381.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.08 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$19.10, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Patria Investments analyst has a price target of US$23.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$17.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Patria Investments shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Patria Investments' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 16% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 23% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.6% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Patria Investments is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Patria Investments going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Patria Investments .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.