Incident: The company issued an announcement on the “Action Plan to Promote the Double Improvement of Quality and Return”. The main measures are:
(1) Focus on the main business and build “world-class”; (2) consolidate governance to ensure standardized operation; (3) focus on shareholders to strengthen return on investment; (4) ensure compliance and enhance interactive communication.
Comment: The company's fundamentals are high, and growth certainty is high. The HPV vaccine market space is expected to continue to expand, and varieties such as shingles are expected to create a second growth curve. Since the mainstream varieties have reached a maturity period, the field of biomedicine is also being laid out, including monoclonal antibodies, cell therapy, and diabetes, with great potential for future development.
Focusing on the main business, “technology & market” two-wheel drive, the platform value is expected to continue to be realized. On the technical side, the company adheres to the innovation strategy of “independent research and development as the main focus, cooperative research and development as support, and investment incubation as a supplement”. Relying on the three major R&D production bases and innovative product incubation centers, the company continues to promote 29 research projects around nine major R&D technology platforms and eight major product matrices, and continuously strengthens R&D technical barriers. On the market side, the company continues to strengthen the absorption, introduction, training and assessment of market talents, enhance the ability to integrate information and respond flexibly to market trends, and dig deeper into the commercial value of products.
Improve the industrial layout, develop “prevention & treatment” collaboratively, and move from a vaccine platform to a major biological products platform.
Previously, the company planned to acquire Chenan Biotech, taking the first step in extending to a major biological products platform, and the valuation system is expected to be reshaped. Chenan Biotech has formed a clearly hierarchical pipeline layout for GLP-1 similar drugs and insulin analogs. Currently, there are 6 drug candidates that have entered the clinical stage. Among them, recombinant liraglutide injection and Toku insulin injection are already in the marketing stage; recombinant simeglutide injections are already in phase III clinical phase, and the research and development progress is at the forefront of the country. In addition, it also has pre-clinical research pipelines for GLP-1/GIP dual-target receptor agonists and oral simeglutide tablets.
The company's layout of therapeutic biological products does not stop there. It also co-invested with the actual controller Mr. Jiang Rensheng to establish Zhirui Investment in 2014. At present, Zhirui Investment has successfully incubated a number of innovative technology companies. The treatment field has a broad layout and will continue to bring room for imagination.
GSK's strategic cooperation has created a second growth curve. GSK recombinant shingles vaccine: It is popular worldwide. Currently, only two domestic products are marketed and sold with a good competitive pattern. After the company obtained a Chinese agent for the GSK recombinant shingles vaccine, it is expected to achieve rapid dosage with the support of its strong sales capacity. Under a neutral assumption (640 million people of suitable vaccination age, 1% penetration rate, 3,196 yuan per serving), the peak domestic sales volume is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan in the future, which is expected to become another major single product after the HPV vaccine, creating the company's second growth curve. RSV vaccine: Currently, only two respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines have been approved by the US FDA in the world. Among them, GSK's Arexvy was approved for marketing by the FDA in May 2023 and officially obtained clinical approval in China in June 2023. As demand increases due to the increasing aging of the domestic population, the clinical value and scarcity of the RSV vaccine is expected to continue to be reflected, becoming a potentially important variety driving the company's growth.
The company continues to use methods such as cash dividends, bonus shares, and stock transfers to enhance return on investment. Since its listing, the company has continuously paid cash dividends every year. Up to now, the total amount of cash dividends has reached 4.924 billion yuan, which is equivalent to 3.4 times the initial amount raised. In addition to cash dividends, the company also rewards investors by “sending bonus shares” and “transferring additional shares.”
Profit forecast and valuation: We expect the company's net profit to be 9.2 billion yuan, 12 billion yuan, and 15 billion yuan respectively in 2023-2025, +22.0%, +30.7%, and +24.8%, respectively. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 13X, 10X, and 8X, respectively, maintaining the purchase rating.
Risk warning: HPV vaccine sales fell short of expectations, product development progress fell short of expectations, and industry competition intensified.