FIT HON TENG(6088.HK):FY23E PREVIEW:EARNINGS RECOVERY ON TRACK MULTIPLE GROWTH DRIVERS IN FY24/25E
FIT HON TENG(6088.HK):FY23E PREVIEW:EARNINGS RECOVERY ON TRACK MULTIPLE GROWTH DRIVERS IN FY24/25E
FIT Hon Teng will announce its 4Q23/FY23E results in March. We estimate FY23E revenue/net profit of US$ 4,184mn/131mn (-8%/-23% YoY) and 4Q23 revenue/ net profit of US$1,235mn/76.0mn (+7%/+121% YoY), largely in-line with guidance, given weak CE demand, SP business price pressure, networking product portfolio alternation and auto business integration. Looking ahead, we are positive in new product ramp-up (high-speed connectivity products/DDR5 connectors/CPU sockets), auto business consolidation and audio product order wins in FY24/25E. We slightly trimmed our topline estimates for FY23/24E due to smartphone price pressure and lowered shipment demand of the key customer. Our new TP of HK$2.02 is based on same 11x FY24E P/E (30% below 5-year hist. avg.). Reiterate BUY. Upcoming catalysts include TWS project progress and updates on product applications in AI-related fields.
FIT 鴻騰將於3月公佈其23財年第四季度業績。鑑於消費電子需求疲軟、標普業務價格壓力、網絡產品組合變更和汽車業務整合，我們估計 FY23E 收入/淨利潤爲41.84億美元/1.31億美元（同比下降8％/-23％），23年第四季度收入/淨利潤爲12.35億美元/760萬美元（同比增長7％/+121％），基本符合預期。展望未來，我們對24/25財年新產品（高速連接產品/DDR5連接器/CPU插槽）、汽車業務整合和音頻產品訂單的增加持樂觀態度。由於智能手機價格壓力和主要客戶的出貨需求降低，我們略微下調了23/24E財年的收入預期。我們的新目標爲2.02港元，基於相同的11倍 FY24E 市盈率（比5年曆史平均水平低30％）。重申買入。即將推出的催化劑包括TWS項目進展和人工智能相關領域產品應用的最新情況。
4Q23 preview: expect strong revenue/earnings recovery. We estimate4Q23E revenue/net profit of US$1,235mn/76.0mn (+7%/+121% YoY), vs - 9%/+10% YoY in 3Q23. By segment, we expect smartphone/networking/ computing/EV/system product to grow -5%/-14%/+8%/+218%/-3% YoY, given benefits from Voltaira auto business consolidation along with mild PC market recovery. We think 4Q23 NPM will recover to 6.2% (vs. - 1.1%/0.04%/4.7% in 1Q/2Q/3Q23) backed by improving product mix and less expense burden. Overall, we estimate FY23E revenue/net profit of US$ 4,184mn/131mn (-8%/-23% YoY), largely in-line with guidance.
23 年第四季度前瞻：預計收入/收益將強勁復甦。我們估計，第二季度收入/淨利潤爲12.35億美元/7,600萬美元（同比增長7％/+121％），而23年第三季度同比爲-9％/+10％。按細分市場劃分，受益於Voltaira汽車業務整合以及個人電腦市場的溫和復甦，我們預計智能手機/網絡/計算/電動汽車/系統產品將同比增長-5％/-14％/+8％/+218％/-3％。我們認爲，在產品組合改善和支出負擔減輕的支持下，23年第四季度NPM將恢復至6.2％（相比之下，第一季度/第二季度/第三季度爲-1.1％/0.04％/4.7％）。總體而言，我們估計 FY23E 收入/淨利潤爲41.84億美元/1.31億美元（同比下降8％/-23％），基本符合預期。
FY24E outlook: across-the-board recovery with improving productmix; Eye on AirPods share gain. We expect revenue upside from new products (CPU sockets, DDR5 connectors and high-speed connectivity products) in FY24E along with benefits from Voltaira auto business consolidation. We believe Airpods order wins will materialize starting from 2H24E, which makes FIT potentially the second largest supplier with rapid share gain in FY24/25E.
FY24E 展望：隨着產品組合的改善，全面復甦；關注AirPods的份額增長。我們預計，FY24E 的新產品（CPU 插槽、DDR5 連接器和高速連接產品）將帶來收入增長，並受益於 Voltaira 汽車業務整合。我們認爲，Airpods的訂單將從 2H24E 開始實現，這使飛度有可能成爲第二大供應商，在24/25財年份額快速上漲。
Attractive risk/reward, multiple growth drivers in FY24/25E; ReiterateBUY. We think current valuation at 6.4x/5.1x FY23/24E P/E is extremely attractive (1-sd below 5-year hist. avg.), given our positive view on earnings recovery and multiple growth drivers in FY24/25E. Our new TP of HK$2.02 is based on the same 11x FY24E P/E. Reiterate BUY.
誘人的風險/回報，24/25財年的多個增長驅動力；ReiterateBuy。鑑於我們對24/25財年收益復甦和多個增長驅動因素持積極看法，我們認爲，當前估值爲23/24財年市盈率6.4x/5.1倍，極具吸引力（比5年曆史平均水平低1％）。我們新的目標價爲2.02港元，基於 FY24E 市盈率的11倍。重申買入。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。