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中曼石油(603619):23年原油产量高增长 未来仍有高成长性

Zhongman Petroleum (603619): Crude oil production grew rapidly in 23 years and will still have high growth potential in the future

中信建投證券 ·  Feb 7, 2024 11:46

Core views

The company's net profit for 23 years is expected to be 80,000-850 million yuan, an increase of 59%-69% over the previous year. The main reason for the month-on-month decline in 23Q4 performance was non-recurring profit and loss due to the consolidation of tenge blocks. In '23, the Wensu project produced 581,000 tons of crude oil, an increase of 33.8% over the previous year, exceeding the target. The overseas tenge project produced 101,000 tons of crude oil, and efforts were made to increase production as soon as possible in 24 years. The exploration and evaluation of the shore project is progressing in an orderly manner. The company's drilling engineering services have benefited from an increase in the international oil and gas exploration boom, and there is still room for recovery in revenue and gross margin. The company plans to repurchase 80 million to 160 million yuan, demonstrating confidence in future development.

occurrences

The company released the 2023 performance forecast, with 23 years of high performance growth

The company expects to achieve net profit of 80,000-850 million yuan in 2023, an increase of 58.9%-68.9% year-on-year, and a year-on-year increase of 68.8%-78.7%; of these, the 23Q4 single quarter is expected to return to mother net profit of 111-160 million yuan, the center is 140 million yuan, -45.9% month-on-month; 23Q4 is a quarterly net profit of 180 to 230 million yuan, or -14.3% month-on-month.

Brief review

Factors such as tenge consolidation affected Q4 performance. Oil and gas production continued to grow at a high rate in '23, and the repurchase plan showed confidence

The main reason for the month-on-month decline in the company's 23Q4 net profit was the effect of tenge consolidation. According to accounting standards, mergers of enterprises under the same control must be restated. On the one hand, the combination of tenge brought investment income, and on the other hand, it led to a decrease in current net profit due to the services provided by the wholly-owned subsidiary. Together, the two components reduced the net profit to the mother of the current period by 69.02 million yuan.

In 2023, the company's Wensu project achieved crude oil production of 581,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.8%, exceeding the target. The overseas tenge project produced 101,000 tons of crude oil and 1.61 million square meters of natural gas and associated gas throughout the year. On January 25, 2024, the company announced the repurchase plan. The total repurchase capital is between 80 million yuan and 160 million yuan, and the repurchase price is no more than 27.57 yuan/share.

The company is actively promoting increased storage and production. There is still a high-growth Wensu project for oil and gas production in the future: the Wensu project deployed 18 horizontal wells in 2023, the horizontal well output reached 2-3 times that of straight wells, and production has been stable for a long time.

It has basically been determined that the oil and gas reserves in the F1 fracture zone of the Kekeya Oilfield are about 10.92 million tons. In 2024, exploration of discovered tectonic zones or lithological confinement areas will be carried out to carry out preliminary exploration and evaluation of regions such as the upper and lower parts of the F1 fault zone, the Red 90 Fracture Zone, and the Seke Elevation, to reach a new level of annual production, and complete the preparation and declaration of 10.92 million tons of proven reserves.

Tenge project: Located in the Uzin region of Aktau region of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the mining rights area is 154 square kilometers. In 2022, the C1 geological reserve was 63.87 million tons, and the C2 geological reserve was 145.65 million tons, for a total of 78.535 million tons. A total of 16 new wells will be put into operation in 2023, including 9 self-propellant wells. At the end of the year, 27 wells were producing 540.5 tons of oil per day. The next step is to speed up the development of new wells and increase oil field production as soon as possible. At the same time, 3 evaluation wells were deployed on the periphery of the C1 reserve in an effort to further increase the size of the reserve.

Coastal project: Located in the Emba region of the Atyrau region of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The original area of the oil field was 18.3 square kilometers, the expansion area was 72.3 square kilometers, and the total prospecting rights area was 90.5 square kilometers. In 2023, 3 additional test drilling rigs were added on the shore, producing an average of 5.5 tons of oil per day, with remarkable results.

In 2024, the preparation and declaration of coastal project reserves reports will be carried out, a test mining network will be implemented, and test mining work will continue to be carried out to provide experience for the formal development of coastal oil fields.

The oil service business and engineering business have benefited from an increase in the international oil and gas exploration boom since 2023. Capital expenditure for international oil and gas exploration has increased. The oil and gas exploration sector is booming, and the year-on-year increase in the operating rate of the company's overseas drilling rigs has led to a sharp year-on-year increase in revenue in the engineering services sector. The number of new overseas drilling project contracts, domestic drilling project contracts and equipment sales and leasing contracts signed by the company in 2023 was 35/6/158, amounting to 32.48/1.51/336 million yuan, +37.1%/-52.5%/69.7% year-on-year, totaling +29.5% year-on-year.

At the same time, the company optimizes management, strictly controls costs and expenses, and continues to increase costs and efficiency through market optimization and management optimization, and it is expected that oil service will continue to improve and contribute to the company's performance.

Profit Forecast and Valuation:

The company's net profit for 2023-2025 is estimated to be RMB 842, RMB 12.41, and RMB 1,608 million, respectively, and EPS of RMB 2.10, 3.10, and 4.02 yuan respectively. Maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: The global economy is in recession (the price of the company's main product, crude oil, is highly correlated with the global economy. The sales price and sales volume of the company's main products showed certain fluctuations according to macroeconomic development conditions and changes in the market supply and demand relationship. With cyclical macroeconomic fluctuations at home and abroad, demand and prices for the company's products in the downstream industry may decline, which will adversely affect the company's future business development and operating performance); the crude oil supply side has increased beyond expectations (the continued resilience of this round of oil prices is based on OPEC maintaining production cuts and the slow increase in US shale oil. If these two changes may change the global crude oil market pattern, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices); the company's production growth rate falls short of expectations (there is some uncertainty about oil and gas development, if actual production falls below the company's target, it will fall short of expectations) affects the company's profit level).

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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