There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Typically, we'll want to notice a trend of growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and alongside that, an expanding base of capital employed. Ultimately, this demonstrates that it's a business that is reinvesting profits at increasing rates of return. In light of that, when we looked at Fujian South Highway Machinery (SHSE:603280) and its ROCE trend, we weren't exactly thrilled.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Fujian South Highway Machinery:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.066 = CN¥82m ÷ (CN¥2.1b - CN¥882m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).
Therefore, Fujian South Highway Machinery has an ROCE of 6.6%. In absolute terms, that's a low return but it's around the Machinery industry average of 6.1%.
In the above chart we have measured Fujian South Highway Machinery's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.
The Trend Of ROCE
In terms of Fujian South Highway Machinery's historical ROCE movements, the trend isn't fantastic. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 29%, but since then they've fallen to 6.6%. On the other hand, the company has been employing more capital without a corresponding improvement in sales in the last year, which could suggest these investments are longer term plays. It's worth keeping an eye on the company's earnings from here on to see if these investments do end up contributing to the bottom line.
On a side note, Fujian South Highway Machinery has done well to pay down its current liabilities to 42% of total assets. That could partly explain why the ROCE has dropped. Effectively this means their suppliers or short-term creditors are funding less of the business, which reduces some elements of risk. Since the business is basically funding more of its operations with it's own money, you could argue this has made the business less efficient at generating ROCE. Keep in mind 42% is still pretty high, so those risks are still somewhat prevalent.
Our Take On Fujian South Highway Machinery's ROCE
To conclude, we've found that Fujian South Highway Machinery is reinvesting in the business, but returns have been falling. And in the last year, the stock has given away 31% so the market doesn't look too hopeful on these trends strengthening any time soon. In any case, the stock doesn't have these traits of a multi-bagger discussed above, so if that's what you're looking for, we think you'd have more luck elsewhere.
If you'd like to know more about Fujian South Highway Machinery, we've spotted 3 warning signs, and 1 of them is potentially serious.
If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
