YONGDA AUTOMOBILES(3669.HK):NEW CAR GPM MAY BE HURT MORE THAN EXPECTED
YONGDA AUTOMOBILES(3669.HK):NEW CAR GPM MAY BE HURT MORE THAN EXPECTED
We project Yongda's 2H23E net profit to fall 53% HoH to RMB189mn amid a deteriorating new-car GPM. We cut our FY24E net profit by 45% to RMB670mn, due to slower-than-expected new car GPM recovery given fiercer competition from premium NEV models to traditional luxury brands. Yongda's shares are now trading at 5x FY24E P/E, which is undemanding given a dividend yield of 8%.
我們預計，在新車GPM惡化的情況下，永達的 2H23E 淨利潤將同比下降53％，至人民幣1.89億元。我們將我們的 FY24E 淨利潤削減了45％，至6.7億元人民幣，這是由於從高端新能源汽車車型到傳統豪華品牌的競爭更加激烈，新車的GPM恢復速度低於預期。永達的股票現在的交易價格是 FY24E 市盈率的5倍，鑑於股息收益率爲8％，這並不苛刻。
We project 2H23E net profit to be RMB189mn. We project Yongda's new-car sales volume to rise 11% HoH to about 95,000 units in 2H23E, with average selling price falling about 7% HoH amid the price war. Therefore, we expect Yongda's new-car sales revenue to rise 4% HoH to about RMB28bn in 2H23E. We estimate 2H23E new car GPM to fall 0.7ppt HoH to -0.2%, taking higher discounts and OEMs' rebates into account. We project after-sales service revenue to rise 13% HoH to RMB5.9bn in 2H23E, with a GPM of 43%. We project its other income to drop 7% HoH in 2H23E due to a high comparison base caused by gains from a subsidiary disposal and SG&A ratio to widen by 0.4ppt HoH to 8.7% due to higher incentive costs for sales personnel. Accordingly, we forecast Yongda's 2H23E net profit to fall 75% YoY and 53% HoH to about RMB189mn.
我們預計，2H23E 的淨利潤爲人民幣1.89億元。我們預計，永達在 2H23E 中的新車銷量將增長11％，達到約9.5萬輛，在價格戰中，平均售價同比下降約7％。因此，我們預計，在 2H23E 中，永達的新車銷售收入將同比增長4％，達到約280億元人民幣。考慮到更高的折扣和OEM的折扣，我們估計，2H23E 新車的GPM將下降0.7個百分點至-0.2％。我們預計，2H23E 售後服務收入將增長13％，達到59億元人民幣，GPM爲43％。我們預計，其在 2H23E 中的其他收入將下降7％，這是由於子公司出售收益的收益以及銷售人員激勵成本增加導致的銷售和收購比率將擴大0.4個百分點至8.7％。因此，我們預測永達的 2H23E 淨利潤將同比下降75％，同比下降53％，至約1.89億元人民幣。
Porsche and after-sales services key to FY24E. We project Yongda'snew-car sales volume to drop 3% YoY to about 176,000 units (excluding those under agency model) in FY24E, given potential market share loss for traditional luxury brands and mass-market foreign brands amid China's electrification. We are of the view that the sales growth for NEV brands cannot offset the sales decline from the traditional brands at Yongda in FY24E. We expect new-car GPM to be flat YoY at 0.1% in FY24E, as the improvement from Porsche's could offset the deterioration from other brands'. We project FY24E after-sales service revenue to rise 4% YoY, mainly driven by a larger customer base. Its SG&A ratio may continue to increase amid competition this year. Accordingly, we project Yongda's net profit to rise 13% YoY to RMB670mn in FY24E.
保時捷和售後服務是 FY24E 的關鍵。鑑於中國電氣化背景下傳統奢侈品牌和大衆市場外國品牌的潛在市場份額損失，我們預計，在 FY24E 中，永達的新車銷量將同比下降3％，至約17.6萬輛（不包括代理車型的汽車）。我們認爲，新能源汽車品牌的銷售增長無法抵消永達傳統品牌在 FY24E 中的銷量下降。我們預計，FY24E 新車的GPM同比持平至0.1％，因爲保時捷的改善可能會抵消其他品牌的惡化。我們預計，FY24E 售後服務收入將同比增長4％，這主要是由更大的客戶群推動的。在今年的競爭中，其銷售和收購比率可能會繼續增加。因此，我們預計，在 FY24E 中，永達的淨利潤將同比增長13％，至人民幣6.7億元。
Valuation/Key risks. We maintain our BUY rating but cut target price from HK$5.00 to HK$2.80, still based on 7x our revised FY24E EPS. We believe Yongda's valuation is undemanding with a dividend yield of 8%. Key risks to our rating and TP include lower sales and/or margins, slower after-sales service growth than our expectation, as well as a sector de-rating.
估值/主要風險。我們維持買入評級，但將目標價從5.00港元下調至2.80港元，這仍基於我們修訂後的 FY24E 每股收益的7倍。我們認爲永達的估值要求不高，股息收益率爲8％。我們評級和目標的主要風險包括銷售額和/或利潤率降低，售後服務增長低於我們的預期，以及行業評級下調。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。