Introduction to this report:
The gradual restoration of commercial vehicles combined with overseas market expansion, and the main business restored hematopoietic capacity. With independent joint ventures, the new energy business is about to enter the harvest period. The burden of depreciation continues to be cleared, and the company will reach an inflection point under light weight.
Key points of investment:
Maintaining an increase in holdings rating, the target price was lowered to $20.60. The EPS forecast for 2023-2025 was adjusted to 0.06 (-0.08) /0.13 (-0.11) /0.35 yuan, and the target price was lowered to 20.60 yuan (originally 25.44 yuan), corresponding to 0.87 times PS in 2024, maintaining an increase rating.
Net profit due to mother turned loss into profit, deduction was not loss narrowing, and lightweight deployment accelerated the transformation. The company predicts net profit of 136 million yuan in 2023, turning a loss into a profit from the previous year; a loss of 1.55 billion yuan after deducting non-return to mother, which is a sharp decrease from the previous year's loss, mainly due to the gradual restoration of the company's commercial vehicle business and expansion of overseas markets. According to the performance forecast, net profit loss for 4Q23 is expected to be 50 million yuan, net profit loss after deducting non-return to mother of 1.02 billion yuan, which is narrower than the previous year's loss. The company's electrification transformation has accelerated, the fuel vehicle burden has gradually been cleared, and the inflection point of operation will be reached after the light load is launched.
Huawei Smart Car is the next car company worth looking forward to. The company's passenger car business has gone through many years of adjustments, and the historical burden of fuel vehicles has gradually been cleared. Electrification intelligence fully focuses on the Huawei Smart Car Project, and works with strong partners to target the luxury smart electric market. Considering the relatively gap in high-quality supply in the luxury electric vehicle market and the successful experience of the industry, the new Huawei Smart Select Vehicle is worth looking forward to.
The passenger car business is fully focused, and the new energy business has entered a harvest period. The company fully focuses on the new energy business, lays out new energy through multiple methods such as independent joint ventures, and works with strong partners such as Volkswagen and Huawei. Starting in 2024, new models will be launched one after another. New energy has entered the harvest period, opening up space for the company's growth.
Risk warning: the NEV market falls short of expectations; raw material prices fluctuate; sales of new models fall short of expectations.