Spritzer Faces Slower Earnings Growth
Spritzer Faces Slower Earnings Growth
ALTHOUGH revenue is expected to grow on the back of robust demand for bottled water, Spritzer Bhd is likely to chalk lower earnings growth ahead due to weaker margin.
儘管由於對瓶裝水的強勁需求，預計收入將增長，但由於利潤率疲軟，Spritzer Bhd可能會將未來的收益增長放緩。
This is mainly due to higher raw material cost as a result of a weaker ringgit as well as higher logistic costs. We believe the recent run up in its share price has already priced in the positive outlook of stronger demand for bottled water. We are of the view that its stock is currently trading at a premium, at +1SD (standard deviation) of its average five-year forward price-to-earnings ratio (PE). As share price has increased by 24% since our upgrade in November 2023, we downgrade our call on Spritzer to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' with an unchanged target price (TP) of RM2.08 based on 13x financial year 2024 (FY24F) earnings per share (EPS).
這主要是由於令吉疲軟導致原材料成本上漲以及物流成本上漲。我們認爲，最近其股價的上漲已經爲瓶裝水需求強勁的樂觀前景定價。我們認爲，其股票目前的交易價格溢價，爲其五年期遠期市盈率（PE）平均值的+1SD（標準差）。自2023年11月上調以來，股價已上漲24％，我們將對Spritzer的看漲評級從 “跑贏大盤” 下調至 “中性”，根據2024財年（FY24F）的13倍每股收益（EPS），目標價格（TP）爲2.08令吉不變。
Third quarter of 2023 (3Q23) results recap. Spritzer's 3Q23 revenue grew by 10.8% year-onyear (YoY) due to an increase in bottled water sales and higher average selling price (ASP).
2023 年第三季度（23 年第三季度）業績回顧。由於瓶裝水銷售的增加和平均銷售價格（ASP）的上漲，Spritzer的23第三季度收入同比增長10.8％。
The group reported its strongest quarterly profit yet at RM17 million (+49% YoY), on better product mix, economies of scale as well as lower raw material costs.
該集團報告了迄今爲止最強勁的季度利潤爲1,700萬令吉（同比增長49％），這要歸因於更好的產品組合、規模經濟以及較低的原材料成本。
Bottled water demand still robust. According to data from Statista, Malaysia's bottled water industry is expected to grow at a four-year CAGR of 5.9% to US$289.4 million (RM1.34 billion) by 2027. As such, we believe that Spritzer will continue to benefit from the growing trend, given its position as the market leader in Malaysia's bottled water industry as it accounts for around 45% of the market share. Furthermore, the recovery in economic and tourism activities should lead to higher consumption of bottled water.
瓶裝水需求仍然強勁。根據Statista的數據，預計到2027年，馬來西亞的瓶裝水行業將以5.9％的四年複合年增長率增長至2.894億美元（13.4億令吉）。因此，鑑於Spritzer佔據約45％的市場份額，它是馬來西亞瓶裝水行業的市場領導者，我們認爲Spritzer將繼續從增長趨勢中受益。此外，經濟和旅遊活動的復甦應導致瓶裝水消費量的增加。
Capacity expansion. The group has earmarked RM36 million as capital expenditure (capex) to install two new lines in Taiping, Perak, and Yong Peng, Johor, to boost its annual capacity to 1.2 billion litres from one billion litres. We understand that the new mineral water line in Taiping has started commissioning while the new line in Yong Peng will commission by 1Q24 which should help reduce logistic costs to Singapore. The group is looking to grow its market share in Singapore which was underpenetrated previously due to high logistic costs.
容量擴展。該集團已撥出3,600萬令吉作爲資本支出（capex），用於在霹靂太平和柔佛州永平安裝兩條新生產線，將其年產能從10億升提高到12億升。據我們了解，太平的新礦泉水生產線已開始投產，而永平的新礦泉水生產線將在24年第一季度之前投入使用，這將有助於降低新加坡的物流成本。該集團正在尋求增加其在新加坡的市場份額，由於高昂的物流成本，該市場份額此前一直未被充分滲透。
Slower earnings growth.
收益增長放緩。
While the group is poised to benefit from the recovery in economic and tourism activities, we are expecting the group to post slower earnings growth in FY24F due to the high base effect as well as an increase in logistics and resin costs.
儘管該集團有望從經濟和旅遊活動的復甦中受益，但我們預計，由於高基數效應以及物流和樹脂成本的增加，該集團在 FY24F 中的收益增長將放緩。
As resin is usually quoted in US dollar, we believe that the weaker ringgit will offset the positive impact from lower polyethylene terephthalate (PET) resin cost. In addition, we are not expecting Spritzer's China operations to breakeven in FY24F, given the intensive competition among the local players and high logistic costs.
由於樹脂通常以美元報價，我們認爲令吉貶值將抵消聚對苯二甲酸乙二醇酯（PET）樹脂成本降低帶來的積極影響。此外，鑑於本地企業之間的激烈競爭和高昂的物流成本，我們預計Spritzer在中國的業務不會在 FY24F 中實現盈虧平衡。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。