POLY PROPERTY SERVICES(6049.HK):GROWTH TO BE DELIVERED WHILE VALUATION STILL ATTRACTIVE
POLY PROPERTY SERVICES(6049.HK):GROWTH TO BE DELIVERED WHILE VALUATION STILL ATTRACTIVE
Thanks to Poly Property Services' (PPS) solid brand image, unique competitiveness in the public segment, and visible pipeline from parent company, we believe its growth only suffered limited impact from the property market correction in 2H23, and expect it to meet its growth target set earlier this year. We estimate 2023E revenue to increase by 10.7% YoY to RMB15bn, and expect its core net margin to expand 1.0ppt thanks to improved community VAS revenue structure. As a result, we estimate 2023E core net profit to grow 24.4% YoY to RMB1.4bn. We think its 8.7x 2024E P/E is attractive considering over 15% 2023-25E earnings CAGR, and maintain BUY rating on the stock.
得益於保利物業服務（PPS）穩固的品牌形象、在公共領域的獨特競爭力以及母公司的明顯渠道，我們認爲其增長僅受到23年下半年房地產市場調整的影響有限，並預計其將實現今年早些時候設定的增長目標。我們估計，由於社區增值稅收入結構的改善，2023年E收入將同比增長10.7％，達到人民幣150億元，並預計其核心淨利潤率將增長1.0個百分點。因此，我們估計2023年核心淨利潤將同比增長24.4％，達到14億元人民幣。考慮到2023-25年收益複合年增長率超過15％，我們認爲其2024年的8.7倍市盈率具有吸引力，並維持該股的買入評級。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
In 1H23, PPS' newly expanded annualised contract value from third-parties amounted to RMB1.39bn, up 12% YoY. We believe such momentum continued in 2H23, and expect full year new annualised third-party contract value to exceed RMB3bn, up close to 10% YoY. Among the new contract value, we expect over 20% residential, close to 30% commercial, and more than 40% public. Thanks to the quality of PPS' public projects, we estimate the sub- segment's gross margin to be similar to its residential ones' 13-14%.
在23年上半年，PPS新擴大的第三方年化合同價值爲13.9億元人民幣，同比增長12％。我們認爲，這種勢頭在23年下半年仍在繼續，預計全年新的年化第三方合約價值將超過30億元人民幣，同比增長近10％。在新合同價值中，我們預計住宅合同價值將超過20％，商業合同價值接近30％，公共合同價值超過40％。得益於PPS公共項目的質量，我們估計該子細分市場的毛利率與其住宅項目的13-14％相似。
Also thanks to PPS' public projects' superior quality and preferable geographic distribution, we expect continued stable account receivable cycles in 2H23E, and estimate operating cash flow to at least match net profit in 2H23E. PPS' cash balance decreased during 1H23 due to an RMB3bn deposit related to car park business, excluding which operating cash flow amounted to RMB1bn in 1H23. According to management, there would not be such deposit in 2H23.
此外，由於 PPS 的公共項目的卓越質量和有利的地理分佈，我們預計 2H23E 的應收賬款週期將持續穩定，並估計運營現金流至少與 2H23E 的淨利潤相當。由於與停車場業務相關的30億元人民幣存款，PPS的現金餘額在23年上半年有所下降，其中不包括23年上半年的運營現金流爲10億元人民幣。根據管理層的說法，下半年不會有這樣的存款。
Similar to 1H23, we expect community VAS revenue to decline by over 9% in 2H23E, due to the lack of COVID-19 related retail businesses. However, such structural change also means higher gross margin for the segment, with current business model focusing on higher margin ones including car park sales, home decoration, and property brokerage. For FY23E, we estimate community VAS gross margin to expand from 2022's 31.9% to 38.1%. We also estimate overall gross margin and core net margin to expand by 0.8ppt and 1.0ppt to 19.6% and 9.3%, respectively.
與 23 年上半年類似，我們預計，由於缺乏 COVID-19 相關的零售業務，2H23E 社區增值稅收入將下降9％以上。但是，這種結構性變化也意味着該細分市場的毛利率的提高，目前的商業模式側重於更高的利潤率，包括停車場銷售、家居裝飾和房地產經紀業務。對於 FY23E，我們估計社區增值服務毛利率將從2022年的31.9％擴大到38.1％。我們還估計，總毛利率和核心淨利潤率將分別增長0.8個百分點和1.0個百分點至19.6％和9.3％。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Weaker-than-expected economy may dampen growth of community VAS
低於預期的經濟可能會抑制社區增值稅的增長
Valuation
估價
Our TP at HK$67.20 is based on 20x 2024E P/E. The stock currently trades at 8.7x 2024E P/E, which we think is attractive considering its 2023-25E earnings CAGR at 15.1%, PPS' strong brand image, unique competitiveness in the public segment, and visible pipeline from parent company.
我們的目標股價爲67.20港元，基於2024年的20倍市盈率。該股目前的市盈率爲8.7倍，考慮到其2023-25年盈利複合年增長率爲15.1％、PPS強勁的品牌形象、在公共領域的獨特競爭力以及母公司可見的產品線，我們認爲這很有吸引力。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。